Donald Trump, the United States president, completed 100 days of his second term on April 29. His administration has been marked by unpredictable and radical decisions, causing his popularity to plummet. “The Republican’s 41% approval rating is the lowest for any newly elected president in 100 days, since at least Dwight Eisenhower (president between 1953 and 1961)”, states CNN in a survey conducted by SSRS.
According to the economist Claudio Aquino Cesar, Trump’s rejection was already expected because of the impulsive profile of the president and the top leadership of the new government (…). “Sudden changes in several areas simultaneously, tend to create noise, because as all of us, as social beings that we are and live in a community, seek, even unconsciously, stability and consequently, clarity about what life will be like in the near future”.
The tariff HIKE
In order to protect American industry, generate jobs and correct trade distortions that were “harming” the US in international trade, the president applied reciprocal tariffs against several countries. The tariff base was 10%, but there were proportional increases to each nation’s rates.
For every action there will be a reaction, the countries reacted, especially the China government – which had a rate of 245% – starting the trade war. American inflation rose, the price of products and labor increased, as did the dissatisfaction of the American population. On May 12, both nations reached an agreement and agreed to reduce tariffs by 145% for 90 days. American tariffs on Chinese imports will fall to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on American products will fall to 10%.
Although there has been speculations that Trump did not know what he was doing, that he wasn’t expecting this reaction from the Asians and those were the reason why he gave in, the economist Aquino has another perspective : “I do not believe that the US gave in to the trade war,” he argues. “Rather, I think that this was something planned from the very beginning, just like in President Trump’s first term, when he did something similar -but not on this scale- and managed to negotiate better tariffs for American interests.”
Red CARD
It is no news that Donald Trump hates immigrants; this was clear in his first term and it would be no different in his second. The promise to deport illegal immigrants was a very important reason that supported Trump’s campaign, and has made significant progress. According to Tom Homan, the White House border secretary, 139,000 illegal immigrants have already been deported.
According to the economic journalist, Thais Herédia, it is not yet possible to know the damage that the mass deportation could cause to the U.S. economy, since a large part of the workforce is made up of foreigners, such as the agricultural sector, which represents 64%.
“What we saw in the United Kingdom after Brexit is a clear example: leaving the European bloc led to the loss of a significant portion of foreign workers, and almost immediately, the country faced a shortage of truck drivers, which disrupted product distribution. In the case of the United States, we expect similar effects, but it is still too early to measure their intensity or predict when these impacts will begin to show up in economic indicators”, explains Herédia.
Failure to end WARS
One of the issues that was also much talked about by Donald Trump during the period of his election campaign was the war between Ukraine and Russia. The Republican said he would end the war as soon as he won the election, but that did not happen.
He completely reversed US policy regarding the war and demanded the money that former President Joe Biden had given in military aid to Ukraine.
The Americans contacted both countries’ representatives in an attempt to end the war. His attempt may have worked this Monday (19), Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin ceasefire negotiations. “The conditions for this will be negotiated between the two parties, as can only be, because they know the details of a negotiation that no one else would have knowledge of.”
Reducing prices and TAXES
The president also promised to reduce inflation; energy bills and cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security.
In January, when Trump took office, inflation was at 3%. In March, it reached 2.4%. Americans increased their consumer spending in March for fear that the tariff hike would increase inflation and consequently increase the price of products, which is the current situation in the US.
He also promised to cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security. None of this has happened so far and it tends to get worse with the tariffs, the amount of taxes and duties that Americans must pay to the government (tax burden) tends to get worse. But since Congress is full of Republicans, there is an attempt to create a law on the subject.
General attempts
Trump has threatened to seize the Panama Canal, which was handed over to the country in 1999. He has said that Canada has little reason to exist and that he would love to see it become the 51st state of the United States. He has again spoken of taking control of Greenland. And last but not least, he has tried to roll back the rights of transgender people.
His slogan “Make America Great Again” has charmed the population, but his abrupt, hasty, and unstable actions have generated a widespread sense of insecurity, which is reflected in the declining approval of his government. Economist Claudio, however, sees a less alarming scenario: “Despite the discourse about the supposed decline of the U.S. gaining traction in the mass media, in practice, American leadership in nearly every area remains virtually uncontested”, he states, in a reassuring tone.
That view, however, is not unanimous. Journalist Thais Herédia offers a more cautious perspective: “Low growth caused by insecurity and lack of confidence in the future are among the most harmful effects the country may face in the coming years. The uncertainty about the future, as acute as it is now, sets off a chain of negative developments—even for an economy as dynamic as the American one.”
The two perspectives reflect a growing tension between the structural strength of the United States and the immediate effects of an increasingly volatile political landscape.
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The article above was edited by Maria Alice Primo.
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