What began as a “special military operation” by Russia in 2022 has become one of the largest-scale conflicts in the world in 2026. Since the Russian invasion, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that 2 million people have died as a result of the conflict. According to UNHCR, 10 million Ukrainians have been forcibly displaced.
The consequences of the war are felt daily by the affected populations and the world. The local dispute has also become a structural and symbolic clash between Russia and the West. While at first both sides underestimated the duration of the conflict, today its extent reflects years of accumulated tension in the region and global geopolitical disputes.
Hopes for peace agreements are suffering due to discussions over the cession of territory and security guarantees, as well as external interference. After four years, the populations want an end to the armed conflict, but do not support the loss of territory, moving away from realistic resolutions.
The past
The war in Ukraine is not the first clash between the nations. In 2014, the then-Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, rejected the agreement to join the European Union. The politician’s action was motivated by his partnership and pro-Russia policy. However, the population reacted with a series of popular demonstrations, which ultimately led to the overthrow of Yanukovych’s government. In response, Vladimir Putin invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula, under the pretext of supporting separatists in the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk), and breaking the long-standing partnership with the neighboring country.
Since then, tensions between the countries have escalated. In 2021, Putin’s government reinforced its military presence around the Russian-Ukrainian border. On the other side, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, which is pro-Western, has made clear its intention to move closer to the European Union and NATO, further exacerbating the situation.
On February 24, 2022, Russia bombed Kyiv. The Russian president’s justification for the invasion was based on the idea that populations in eastern Ukraine were being persecuted by neo-Nazi cells and therefore needed protection. “This nightmare had to be ended immediately,” Putin said in a speech that day. Zelensky denied the Russian accusations and appealed to other Western countries for support.
The unfolding events, attempts at peace, and Trump’s broken promises
On one side is one of the world’s greatest powers, led by an autocrat for 25 years. On the other, is a republic formed after the end of the Soviet Union, supported by the West. Amidst all this, emerges one of the major players in this dispute: the United States. Like most of Ukraine’s allies, the US shows its support by financing Zelensky’s army. Between 2022 and 2024, spending according to the US Department of Defense amounted to $66.9 billion.
With the return of President Donald Trump, new promises were made. In his campaign, he stated that he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office, which was not fulfilled.
In an interview with André Kaysel, PhD in political science and professor at Unicamp, he explains that the current US president’s policy is to dismantle the global system of international rules that the United States itself helped to build during the late 1980s, as he believes it no longer favors the country.
According to the professor, “The US wants to return to a policy of dividing areas of influence.” Therefore, if Trump were truly involved in ending the war, part of this desire for global influence would be realized. André also points out that without the US nuclear umbrella, Europe would not be able to support Ukraine in the war. “The United States has always been a key factor in this war.”
In 2022, just four days after it all began, negotiations took place, which came close to peace agreements without the cession of territories and with Ukrainian neutrality. But as Kaysel explains, Western politicians and negotiators encouraged the Ukrainians not to accept because they were certain that their support was sufficient. Today, four years later, new rounds of negotiations have ended without a definitive ceasefire, even with Trump’s active participation.
Consequences of the conflict and its ramifications
What began as a war of movement became a dispute over position, increasing the attrition on both sides. Part of this change was due to the expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian regional conflict into a structural and symbolic clash between Russia and the West. Both sides had underestimated how the war would unfold. Russia, for its part, doubted Ukraine’s military and social resistance, while the West believed that sanctions on the invading country would break it. The four-year extension is one reflection of how misguided this perspective was.
The global economy has once again felt the impact of war. With the world’s ninth-largest economy at war, the global energy and grain markets have experienced serious instability. In an interview with the newspaper Estadão, Christopher Mendonça, professor of international relations at Ibmec, reiterates that inflation has risen in several countries due to sanctions against Russia. Germany is an example where Russian energy supplies are vital, causing energy vulnerability.
Talking about the economy also means addressing the quality of life and access to basic rights. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, one in three households in Ukraine experiences food insecurity. This is a direct consequence of job losses due to a lack of infrastructure, but also of the economic recession in sectors such as agriculture.
Both countries are among the largest exporters in the agricultural sector, especially in grains. Agreements such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative prevented the total collapse of the export system. But the impacts are still being felt globally, and poorer countries in particular are suffering the consequences more broadly and intensely.
Economically, the invasion is a disaster. But it does not compare to the human loss and the pain of mourning. Entire families devastated, memories left in the rubble, and the uncertainty of the future are the fruits of a violent war. For survivors, such as teacher Olena Kurilo, who posted an impactful photo of her face wounded and bandaged after a Russian bombing, resistance is the only option. She told Sky News: “I will do everything for Ukraine, everything I can, with all the energy I have.”
The future of Eastern Europe
Last week, new meetings on peace agreements ended without resolution. Mediated by the US and hosted in Geneva, the negotiations were described as “difficult” by both sides. The Ukrainian president told reporters after the meeting that Kyiv and the Kremlin are in almost complete agreement on military matters, but the clash is mainly over the territories east of Ukraine and the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.
For André Kaysel, negotiations are moving towards an armistice. The same agreement used by the Koreas would mean a truce under a formal agreement in the face of armed conflict. The political scientist also points out that one of the best solutions for Ukraine would be neutrality, as being a neighbor of a nuclear superpower hinders the assumption of national security, and a policy of good neighborliness serves as support for the reconstruction of the nation.
Internationally, the war has caused changes and raised many questions. If during the Cold War the world was bipolar, today the globe is multipolar. With emerging powers and new alliances, we are living in a time of profound change, in which the globe is rapidly being reconfigured. The only certainty is that the old polarized model no longer fits today. The Russian-Ukrainian war is crucial to understanding contemporary disputes, but also to hoping for a less violent world.
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The article above was edited by Isabelle Bignardi.
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