The Academy Awards are upon us again, and while some categories seem to have their winner locked in already, most of the major awards are still up in the air. Here I will break down who is most likely to win each major category — and who deserves it.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “West Side Story”
Who should win: “The Power of the Dog”
The ten films nominated for Best Picture represent an impressively wide range of stories, genres, and styles. Most are excellent films with the prominent exception of “Don’t Look Up,” a misguided, heavy-handed mess. “West Side Story” is beautifully shot with some good moments and performances, but I found it flat and unemotional for the most part. “Licorice Pizza” and “Nightmare Alley” are both incredibly unique films that are visually wonderful and well-acted, and certainly deserving of their nominations, but neither are perfect films. “CODA” and “Belfast” are lovely, funny, heartfelt, and overall excellent films, although they don’t break any new cinematic ground. The same goes for “King Richard.” The two nominees in this category that truly deserve Best Picture are “The Power of the Dog” and “Drive My Car,” very different films that share brilliant writing and direction, an impeccable ensemble, gorgeous cinematography, and a thought-provoking story that will stick with you. I’m giving “The Power of the Dog” the edge because I particularly enjoyed the journey that director Jane Campion takes you on, with the end of the movie being something very different than you could have imagined at the beginning.
Who will win: “The Power of the Dog”
Jane Campion and “The Power of the Dog” have taken almost every major precursor award, and the Western is just safe enough to satisfy one section of Academy voters while groundbreaking enough to appeal to the other part. However, if there’s going to be an upset, I think it will go to “CODA,” the big-hearted family story that just won Best Film at the Producers Guild Awards, a prize that often predicts the Best Picture winner.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”), Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)
Who should win: Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”)
Cruz is quite literally unparalleled in “Parallel Mothers.” She is deeply committed to her character and brings an intensely passionate but grounded performance to the melodrama. Devastating plot twists abound in “Parallel Mothers,” and Cruz sells every single one of them, taking the audience on the most emotional journey in this category. She embraces her character’s flaws and brings to life the most real and genuine character out of all those nominated. This is not to knock on the other performances — Chastain, Colman, and Stewart also give great, Oscar-caliber performances in their respective movies. Chastain completely becomes Tammy Faye Bakker in an uncanny, engaging portrayal. Colman is a brilliant actress who nails every complicated and contradictory emotion of her “Lost Daughter” character. Stewart makes Princess Diana her own, bringing both humor and devastation to the lovely “Spencer.” All three could walk away with the Oscar and deserve it — just not as much as Penelope Cruz. (Nicole Kidman’s stilted and uncharacteristic performance as Lucille Ball was the only one I did not enjoy out of this category.)
Who will win: Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
Any of these actresses could walk away with the Oscar, but Chastain seems to have garnered the most attention so far, winning most of the preceding acting awards this year. Voters often can’t resist a biopic, especially one with an on-point performance like Chastain’s. She has been nominated for multiple Oscars in the past without a win, so many Academy voters will likely feel that her time has come. She has this advantage over Colman, who won just a few years ago. Cruz, despite her remarkable performance, is also at a disadvantage because of her movie being international and subtitled, which actors very rarely win for.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“tick, tick…BOOM!”), Will Smith (“King Richard”), Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”)
Who should win: Will Smith (“King Richard”)
Will Smith gives a towering performance in “King Richard” that is the most exciting out of any in the category. I truly forgot I was watching Will Smith. Bardem channels Desi Arnaz admirably in “Being the Ricardos,” but the movie focuses far more on Lucille Ball, so he never gets a chance to really show what he can do. Cumberbatch and Washington’s performances are both top-notch, but because both are playing relatively subdued characters that keep their emotions close to their vest, I can’t feel the excitement that I do for Smith’s performance. Garfield is perfectly cast as Jonathan Larson in “tick, tick…BOOM!” but he doesn’t compare with Smith’s utter transformation into Richard Williams.
Who will win: Will Smith (“King Richard”)
This is probably the most secure win of the night, with Will Smith taking literally every Best Actor award available so far, from the BAFTA to the Golden Globe. Many Academy voters will likely feel that it’s Smith’s time to finally take home an Oscar, and his performance in “King Richard” is substantial enough to get him one.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”)
Who should win: Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)
This is an incredibly stacked category. With the exception of Judi Dench, bafflingly nominated here for a small and lightweight part, I would be thrilled with any actress here walking away with the Oscar. Dunst is my favorite performance out of the category, however, as her character is truly the heart of “The Power of the Dog.” She brings great vulnerability and truthfulness to a complicated character, and her best scenes stayed with me long after the movie was over. Buckley is also wonderful in “The Lost Daughter,” perfectly playing a younger Olivia Colman, as is Ellis in “King Richard,” bringing gravitas to the Williams matriarch. DeBose has the showiest role, and certainly is the best part of “West Side Story,” but I prefer Dunst’s understated performance.
Who will win: Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)
Although Dunst’s was my favorite performance in the category, DeBose is certainly Oscar-worthy for her powerful turn as Anita. She makes the iconic role her own, and voters have been recognizing her triple-threat performance for months, awarding her the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Screen Actors Guild awards. In a busy movie like “West Side Story,” the fact that DeBose stood out so clearly means a lot. For another boost to her chances, “West Side Story” is unlikely to win any other major awards it’s up for, so many voters will still want to award it in some way.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”), J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”), Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”)
Who should win: Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
Ciarán Hinds, Jesse Plemons, and J.K. Simmons all give perfectly good performances in their respective films, but none of them carry the complexity or the “wow” factor needed for a win in the supporting category, like so many of the supporting actresses brought to their parts. Kodi Smit-McPhee does give a layered, sensitive performance in “The Power of the Dog,” but he is outshone by Troy Kostur’s devastating and comic father in CODA. He brings almost unlimited depths of love and care to what could have easily been a simple character, and he is the standout of the film.
Who will win: Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
While this category seemed wide open at the beginning of awards season, Troy Kotsur has emerged as the frontrunner after picking up the SAG, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice awards for his multilayered performance. Voters will certainly want to give some love to CODA, and this category is its best shot at an Oscar. If Kotsur wins, he would become the first deaf actor to win in this category.
Best Director
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who should win: Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
Jane Campion’s work on “The Power of the Dog” is simply remarkable. She creates great tension through just her camera work, and in a movie where most of the characters repress their emotions and true selves, it’s her direction that gives the audience the emotional experience of “The Power of the Dog.”
Who will win: Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
Just as with Best Picture, Campion has won the most major directorial awards this far (and deservedly so). She is the first woman to be twice nominated for Best Director, and as an established and respected Hollywood filmmaker, many voters will feel that it’s time for her to take home the prize for her excellent work.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Siân Heder (CODA), Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (Drive My Car), Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (Dune), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Who should win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (“Drive My Car”)
Hamaguchi and Oe take a short novella and not only bring its characters to life in “Drive My Car,” but add even more levels of story and depth. They brilliantly weave together the story of the widowed actor and his chauffeur with Anton Chekhov’s “Uncle Vanya,” the play that the actor is putting on during the film. The characters in the film and those in the play within the film mirror each other in a symbolic back and forth, supporting some of the most well-written monologues I’ve seen. The other films are all excellent, and therefore are well-written too, but none of their screenplays stand out as much as “Drive My Car.”
Who will win: Siân Heder (“CODA”)
“CODA” is already the film with the best chance to beat frontrunner “The Power of the Dog” for Best Picture, so I definitely expect it to come out on top here. Most voters likely assume “The Power of the Dog” will win Best Picture, so they will want to award “CODA” here.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), Adam McKay and David Sirota (“Don’t Look Up”), Zach Baylin (“King Richard”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”), Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”)
Who should win: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”)
Norwegian romantic, coming-of-age film “The Worst Person in the World” was my favorite movie of this awards season. I was saddened, while not surprised, that it wasn’t able to garner Best Picture or acting nominations, but I’m hoping that the film’s insightful, funny and devastating screenplay will pull through here. “Don’t Look Up,” as I touched on in my Best Picture predictions, was all over the place and not funny or touching. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” drifted through moments in lieu of a structured plot, and its bizarre racism in a couple of scenes completely eliminates it from competition for me. Additionally, Anderson has talked about the great number of scenes that were built around improvised dialogue, which makes the idea of giving him the screenplay Oscar a bit disingenuous. “Belfast” successfully balanced humor and heart in Kenneth Branagh’s story inspired by his own childhood and is certainly my second favorite in the category. However, neither “Belfast” nor any of the other nominees could articulate the very heart of what it means to be human and to live and love and find yourself in the 21st century like “The Worst Person in the World.”
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
Despite my championing for “The Worst Person in the World,” I think Anderson and “Licorice Pizza” will ultimately come out on top. Like I predicted with “CODA” for Adapted Screenplay, Academy voters often like awarding films for their screenplays that are nominated for picture or director but aren’t likely to win. Anderson is a beloved and respected writer-director, so I’m guessing voters will ensure Anderson will still walk away with an Oscar in this category for his highly personal film. Plus, the Academy loves a Hollywood story. If the winner isn’t “Licorice Pizza,” then it will probably be “Belfast,” but I’m thinking Branagh’s screenplay will be a little too Oscar-baity and light for voters’ tastes.
Where to watch the Oscar-nominated films:
Belfast – rent on Amazon Prime Video for $5.99
CODA – Apple TV+
Don’t Look Up – Netflix
Drive My Car – HBO Max
Dune – HBO Max
King Richard – HBO Max
Licorice Pizza – rent on Google Play for $5.99
Nightmare Alley – HBO Max, Hulu
The Power of the Dog – Netflix
West Side Story – HBO Max, Disney+
Being the Ricardos – Amazon Prime
tick, tick…BOOM! – Netflix
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Apple TV+
The Eyes of Tammy Faye – HBO Max
The Lost Daughter – Netflix
Parallel Mothers – rent on Vudu for $4.99
Spencer – Hulu
The Worst Person in the World – rent on Amazon Prime Video for $5.99