For the first time in the show’s 20-year history, Dancing with the Stars is introducing a change to the finale format. This year, the three-hour special will have three different rounds: judge’s choice, instant dance, and freestyle, creating what might be the most demanding finale the show has ever seen. Five finalists are still in the running for the Mirrorball: Jordan Chiles, Elaine Hendrix, Dylan Efron, Alix Earle, and Robert Irwin. With this much talent and a new format in play, the outcome seems very unpredictable, but here are my best guesses.
While all of the finalists are incredibly talented, each brings something different to the ballroom. Jordan is undeniably the most athletic contestant this year. Her experience in gymnastics gives her a very natural precision when she dances, though she often trails slightly behind some of the other finalists on the leaderboard. Elaine, meanwhile, brings a theatrical quality to every performance, which is likely from her acting background. This really brings her dances to life and adds more dimension, which is a skill that other dancers have struggled with this season.
As for Dylan, I think he has a lot of charm, but honestly, I don’t think he’s improved much, and I don’t think his dances would be as good without Daniella. I think she is what makes each dance stand out. However, he has had some really great moments. His Disney night performance showed just how strong he can be when he taps into that energy. Alix, however, is clearly a very hard worker and has steadily and consistently improved throughout the competition. Additionally, she already had a solid foundation to start with. I think there were times in her earlier dances where she seemed a bit restrained, but I think that faded as she got more confident. Finally, Robert Irwin is one of, if not the most, charismatic performers this season. His technique is also pretty solid, but I think he fails to take risks sometimes. While this is more a reflection of choreography choices than his own ability, taking fewer risks could still limit his ceiling in a high-stakes finale.
I think this finale ultimately comes down to Robert and Alix. They are the strongest dancers with the largest fan bases, and as Whitney’s elimination taught us last week, popularity is truly what matters. If I had to choose between the two, I’d give the edge to Alix. Val’s choreography plays perfectly to her strengths, and her judges’ choice routine has the potential to be a real standout. Robert, meanwhile, is incredibly charismatic, but he does tend to play it a bit safer, which could matter in such a competitive final.
Of course, judge’s choice is not the only round that matters. The instant dance twist adds an entirely new layer of difficulty. Improvising a routine with only a few minutes of prep is nearly impossible unless you’ve built those instincts over years, especially with a Mirrorball on the line and millions watching live. That’s why I think this round belongs to Jordan. Her big personality, paired with her gymnastics background, gives her the body awareness needed to shine in a high-pressure, last-minute performance.
But even with the instant dance shaking things up, I still believe the finale comes down to Alix and Robert, with Alix taking the win.
Overall, the format change was a wise move by the network. An unusually talented final five gives them the unique opportunity to make the competition feel fresh and unpredictable. It raises the stakes in all the right ways. And, while all competitors bring something unique, I still see Alix taking home the Mirrorball.