People voted across the Country on November 4th, with key elections happening locally in New Jersey, where Mikie Sherrill became the first Democratic female governor. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger became the first female mayor. In New York, Zohran Mamdani, whose progressive campaign platform led him to victory, became the city’s first Muslim mayor. In California, Proposition 50, the Democratic redistricting bill, also passed with strong support.
So what’s the deal with the Democratic shift? Does this signal something different? If you’re asking me, I’d say it seems to be indicative of a new kind of hangover, a Trump one.
Was Trump on the Ballot?
Following the results, Trump posted on Truth Social, “‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,’ according to Pollsters” (although he ironically did not say which Pollsters he was referring to.)
Even though Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot this week, he still dominated the conversation. His endorsements for Jack Ciattarelli and Andrew Cuomo carried significant weight, and although Trump refused to comment on an endorsement for Virginia Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, it is clear that they shared many of the same divisive beliefs. According to CBS Exit Polls, which try to statistically break down the makeup of voters and voter attitudes, a number of voters actually directly linked Trump. When asked if Trump was a direct factor in their votes, 54% in Virginia said yes, in New Jersey 53% and in New York 40%. I do not think it is a coincidence that the candidates who have tried to follow in Trump’s footsteps largely came up short. So I guess the point did go right over his head. His name wasn’t physically on the ballot, but everything that he stands for was, and a large majority of Americans signaled that they were done.
How are economics?
Voters in these recent elections continued to show that affordability has really played a role in which way they chose to vote, again mostly swinging blue, sounding an alarm that Trump’s economic policy is not helping Americans like he thinks it is. It is what actually seems to be hurting him and his party the most.
Bells across the world were rung against Trump in October after a monumental turn out at No Kings Day Protests however, the recent stop in administering benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and an overall skyrocket in prices since Donald Trump took office, have completely slashed his approval rating. According to Newsweek, “Trump’s net approval rating has reached an all-time low of -13 points, with 42 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.”
Statistics, Statistics!
According to Exit poll data made available by The New York Times, 7% of Trump voters from the past year crossed party lines in New Jersey and Virginia. Although it seems small, we have to remember that it doubles. Every voter turned away is not only a gain for Democrats but a loss for Republicans.
Dissatisfaction also showed up among Hispanic voters. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill pulled 18% of Trump’s former Hispanic voters and carried the group by a 37-point margin. This made up for the large loss of Hispanic votes from the Presidential election.
While I can’t know every voter’s mindset, there’s a clear trend of Trump fatigue. These wins seem less like coincidences and more like signs of a shifting political mood, a mini blue wave. With midterms approaching, Democrats should build on this momentum to turn that wave into something bigger.