Is it cliché to say that the Academy Awards are my Super Bowl? Seriously, there’s no night I look forward to more during the year than the Oscars ceremony. I track every precursor win in the months leading up to the big night, and I don’t take my final predictions lightly. When the awards are over, I start counting down the days until the next year’s ceremony.
As such, I feel uniquely qualified to throw my hat in the ring with my final Academy Award predictions for the “major” categories — directing, acting, writing, the works. While my predictions might shift slightly after the Screen Actors’ Guild (SAG) Awards on February 23, with most of the precursors behind us, I’m ready to send out my picks!
- best picture — Anora
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If I’d written this article two weeks ago, I would’ve insisted that Best Picture was The Brutalist’s to lose. But things have shifted dramatically in favor of Sean Baker’s sex-worker comedy, Anora. The film has swept the top prizes at the Directors’ Guild of America (DGA) Awards, Writers’ Guild of America (WGA) Awards, and the Producers’ Guild of America (PGA) Awards — not to mention its Palme d’Or win at Cannes Film Festival last May.
In Academy Award history, only one film has won WGA, DGA, and PGA, and lost Best Picture — Brokeback Mountain in 2005, which is now regarded as one of the biggest Oscar snubs ever. Anora has gained serious momentum in the past month and a half, and I’m fully expecting it to take home the top prize.
- best director — Brady Corbet, The brutalist
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Best Director has been a curious race this year. While I think Brady Corbet will ultimately bring home the gold for The Brutalist, the precursors have been all over the place. Corbet won the Golden Globe, then Jon M. Chu took the Critics’ Choice Award (though he’s not even nominated for an Oscar!), followed by Sean Baker winning the DGA for Anora.
It’s been a strange sprint to the finish line, but I’m predicting Corbet to pull through. Not only did he win the Golden Globe, but he also snagged the BAFTA Award and the Silver Lion for his work on The Brutalist at the Venice International Film Festival. If you’ve seen the film, his directorial talent is undeniable — Corbet is definitely my favorite of the nominees, and I’m hopeful we’ll hear his name on Oscar Sunday.
- best actor — Adrien brody, the brutalist
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The race for Best Actor initially seemed like a toss-up between Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and Adrien Brody’s Laszlo Toth in The Brutalist. But as the season has gone on, Brody has pulled so far ahead of Chalamet that it hardly feels like a race anymore.
Brody has swept the Golden Globe, CCA, and BAFTA awards for his performance in The Brutalist. It’s safe to say he’s making room on his mantle for his second Academy Award, following his 2003 win for The Pianist, which made him the youngest winner of the category — a record he still holds today. Brody delivered a truly outstanding performance in The Brutalist, and I’m excited for him to take home the gold.
- best actress — Demi Moore, the substance
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It may seem bizarre for me to predict Anora for Best Picture and not its leading lady, Mikey Madison, for Best Actress. But hear me out! Demi Moore’s performance as Elisabeth Sparkle in The Substance — even earning an Academy Award nomination — is incredible. A horror performance hasn’t been nominated since Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs, so Moore even receiving a nomination makes her tough competition. The Substance also earned nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, among others. The voters love the film (and so do I)!
Moore has been doing exceptionally well this award season. Though she lost the BAFTA to Mikey Madison, she won both the Golden Globe and CCA. The deciding factor will come down to the Screen Actors’ Guild (SAG) Awards on February 23. Whoever wins will be my final pick for the Oscars!
- best supporting actor — kieran culkin, A real pain
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If there’s one Oscar already engraved with its recipient’s name, it has to be Best Supporting Actor for Kieran Culkin as the vulnerable, wise-cracking cousin of Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain. I don’t think he’s missed a single precursor since award season started — Golden Globe, BAFTA, CCA … Culkin has swept them all. He also benefits from his recent Emmy win for Succession, which only adds to his momentum. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the Succession love is also helping carry him to an Academy Award.
I absolutely adored his performance, and I’ll be more than pleased when he inevitably wins on Oscar night.
- best supporting actress — Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez
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A month ago, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez would’ve been a serious contender for many of the awards in this article. But much of its Oscar hopes faded when the vitriolic tweets from its lead, Karla Sofía Gascón, resurfaced — some as recent as 2021. Gascón is nominated for Best Actress, making history as the first openly transgender actress to be nominated.
I suspect the only award Emilia Perez will take home is Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña, who has been as strong as Culkin in the precursor races. If voters can separate Saldaña’s performance from Gascón’s actions, I’m confident she’ll win on Oscar night. If not, the likely runner-up is Ariana Grande for her role as Glinda in Wicked. I think SAG will be the determining factor in which actress ultimately takes home the gold.
- best original screenplay — anora
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This is another award I feel incredibly confident predicting. Sean Baker’s screenplay for Anora has been the frontrunner in the Best Original Screenplay category since its premiere at Cannes. Despite some bumps along the way with precursors — losing the CCA to The Substance and the BAFTA to A Real Pain — its win at the WGA has solidified it as the one to beat here. I’d be very surprised if another film manages to edge out Anora for the Oscar.
- best adapted screenplay — conclave
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Like Anora in Original Screenplay, Conclave is leading the race for Best Adapted Screenplay. With wins at the Golden Globes, CCA, and the BAFTAs, it’s hard to imagine any other film pulling ahead. The film also did incredibly well with nominations but is unlikely to win in other major categories. If the Academy wants to honor one of the best films of the year, this is an easy win to give it.
- best international feature — I’m still here
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Precedence tells us that any Best Picture nominee also nominated for Best International Feature is a shoo-in winner (see Parasite in 2019 and The Zone of Interest last year). This year, for the first time in Academy Award history, there are two Best Picture nominees in the International category — Emilia Perez from France and I’m Still Here from Brazil.
Choosing between the two was much more difficult before Gascón’s tweets resurfaced. Now, I’d be incredibly shocked if I’m Still Here doesn’t manage to eke out the win.
- best animated feature — The wild robot
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Strangely enough, Animated Feature is the category I’ve gone back and forth on the most. I can see a case for any of the five nominees winning. Inside Out 2 was a box-office juggernaut, Flow is the Latvian submission for International Feature, and Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl did incredibly well at the BAFTAs. (Sorry, Memoir of a Snail — I think you’re in last place.)
Ultimately, I do think The Wild Robot will take the win. It also happens to benefit from being nominated for Best Original Score, showing a strong love for the film. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Flow wound up taking it. Though I’m tentatively landing on The Wild Robot, I’m sure my prediction will flip-flop a dozen times before Oscar Sunday.
No matter how the night shakes out, one thing is for sure — I’ll be glued to my television, reveling in every win, upset, and acceptance speech. For me, the Oscars are more than just gold statues. They culminate in months of obsessive analyzing, debating, and celebrating film. Whether my predictions are completely off-base or right on the money, I’m still excited to see how the awards unfold!