The Super Bowl: Who’s On Their Way to a Ring?

Four teams in the NFL have made their way to the conference championships: the Buffalo Bills, the Green Bay Packers, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC championship title on Sunday, January 24th at 6:40pm ET. The Green Back Packers will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the NFC championship title on Sunday, January 24th at 3:05pm ET. The winners of each of these games will go to the super bowl and play on Sunday, February 7th. 

 

The Buffalo Bills went 13-3-0 in their regular 2020 season and ended the season first in their division. The Bills’ offense is ranked 3rd in the NFL this season. They are ranked 2nd in points and yards, 1st in first downs, and 1st in third and fourth down conversions. They scored 501 points in the regular season, ran/passed for 6,509 total yards, had 397 first downs, had 49.73% third down conversion percentage, and had 80% fourth down conversion percentage. However, the Buffalo Bills’ defense is ranked 15th in the NFL. Their highest ranking is 3rd in turnovers, with 26 turnovers in the season. They allowed 5,640 yards for 382 points in the regular season. 

 

The Kansas City Chiefs went 14-2-0 in their regular 2020 season and ended the season first in their division. The Chiefs’ offense is ranked 1st in the NFL. They are 1st in first downs, passing yards, and total yards, and they are ranked 2nd in pass completions, interceptions, and turnovers. They ran/passed for 6,653 yards, threw for 4,854 yards, had 397 first downs, 420 pass completions, 7 interceptions, and 19 turnovers. They scored 486 points in the regular season. The Chiefs’ defense is ranked 10th in the NFL. Their highest ranking being 5th in interceptions (with 16). One of their lowest rankings is 25th in fourth down conversions, 65% of attempted fourth down conversions were successful against the Chiefs’ defense. They allowed for 5,733 yards and 370 points to be scored against them in the regular season. 

 

The AFC championship game is going to be all eyes on the offense. These two teams have the two best offenses in the AFC, and also both have middle of the pack defenses. The Bills have scored more points than the Chiefs this season, but the Chiefs had more yards. The Chiefs have one of the best passing games in the NFL, but the Bills have some of the most defensive interceptions and turnovers in the NFL. This is where the Bills will be best equipped to stop the Chiefs on defense, but also where the Chiefs will be best equipped to score points. The Bills have the best fourth down conversion percentage in the NFL and the Chiefs have one of the worst defenses at stopping fourth down conversions in the NFL. Overall, the Bills offense will be more evenly matched with the Chiefs defense than vice versa. However, the Bills may have an unexpected advantage over the Chiefs next Sunday: it is unlikely that Patrick Mahomes will be able to play the full game, if at all. He left Sunday’s game with a concussion in the third quarter and did not return. Backup quarterback Chad Henne has only played in 71 games in his career, and is 18-36-0 as a starting quarterback. If Mahomes can’t play next Sunday, the Chiefs may be in trouble. The statistics would lead me to believe that the Chiefs will be more likely to win the AFC championship than the Bills, but with Mahomes being questionable, it throws many of the statistics out the window. Regardless of the stats or the quarterback, I’ll be rooting for Buffalo next Sunday.

 

The Green Bay Packers went 13-3-0 in the regular 2020 season and finished first in their division. The Packers’ offense is ranked 2nd in the NFL overall. They are ranked 1st in points, passing touchdowns, touchdowns, interceptions, and turnovers. The Packers scored 527 points this season, threw 48 passing touchdowns, had 66 touchdowns, only threw 5 interceptions, and only had 15 turnovers. The Packers’ defense is ranked 15th overall in the NFL, tied with the Buffalo Bills. Their highest ranking is 1st in plays, followed by 6th in points scored. The Packers had only 974 plays on defense in 2020 and scored 14 points. Some of their worst rankings are in turnovers (only 18), interceptions (only 11), and fourth down conversions (with 58.3% of all attempted fourth down conversions being successful). The Packers have allowed 5344 yards for 382 points to be scored against them. 

 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 11-5-0 and finished 2nd in their division to the New Orleans’ Saints. The Buccaneers’ offense is ranked 5th overall in the NFL. They are ranked 2nd in passing yards and passing touchdowns, and 3rd in points. They threw for 4,626 yards this season, threw 42 touchdown passes, and scored 501 points. The Buccs’ defense is ranked 9th overall in the NFL. Their highest rank was 1st in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. They allowed only 1,289 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and only 358 rushing attempts were successful. The Buccs’ worst rankings come from their pass defense, allowing 3,945 passing yards, 617 successful pass attempts, 426 pass completions, and 29 passing touchdowns. The Buccaneers’ have allowed 5,234 yards for 368 points to be scored against them.

 

Green Bay is almost equally equipped in both their run game and their passing game on offense. If the Buccaneer’s can keep pressure on Aaron Rogers, he will have a difficult time being able to pass the ball and will be forced to go through with more running plays. This would be the best case scenario for the Buccs, as their rushing defense is the best in the league. That would be the one weakness that Tampa could use to their advantage against Green Bay. The NFC championship game will be held in Green Bay, giving Green Bay an automatic advantage. It’s supposed to be below freezing next Sunday in Green Bay, it’ll be a drastic change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Floridian blood. While the statistics may make it seem like the odds are stacked against the Buccs, one of the Packers’ three losses goes to Tampa Bay. In week 5, Tampa beat Green Bay 38-10, that was the fewest amount of points that Green Bay scored in a single game all season. As much as I dislike Tom Brady, I dislike the Packers even more. This Sunday, I’ll be cheering for a Bucc’s win.

 

This Super Bowl is going to be all offense. Defense will show up and make plays, but I don’t see there being a lot of hard stopping defense. I think this will be a moderate to high scoring Super Bowl matchup. None of the defenses are stellar, they’re all middle of the pack, with Tampa Bay having the best ranked defense of the four teams. However, all of their offenses are high scoring, quality offenses. Based on the numbers, I’d say we’ll see Kansas City win the Super Bowl again. But based on my hunch, the Buffalo Bills will be your Super Bowl LV champions. Go Buccs. Go Bills.