All eyes are on Virginia as the Commonwealth’s General Election — the first competitive statewide election since President Biden took office — takes place in just a few days. One hotly contested race this fall is between former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin, who are polling neck-and-neck in Virginia’s gubernatorial election.
The fact that this race seems to be so close, according to recent polls, may come as a bit of a shock to some, as Virginia has looked to be turning increasingly blue over the last few years. In 2019, Democrats took full control of the Commonwealth’s government, after taking the majority in the Virginia House of Delegates in 2017.
So, until Nov. 2, voter turnout will be very important in determining who wins. In an off-year election like this one, though, turnout could be difficult.
McAuliffe served as governor from 2014 to 2018 and is now hoping to win back his former seat and continue Democrats’ winning streak in statewide races. He’s up against Youngkin, a newcomer who served as a former CEO of Carlyle Group, a global investment giant. Having never held public office before, he doesn’t have much of a record for McAuliffe to go after.
Whoever wins this tighter-than-expected race will succeed Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, who can’t seek reelection this year due to Virginia law, which prohibits governors from serving two consecutive terms.
Some hot topics in the race include:
The Role of President Biden
President Biden, who won Virginia by 10 percentage points in the 2020 election, has endorsed McAuliffe. However, recent polls show relatively high unfavorable ratings in Virginia for Biden, mirroring the overall national decline in Biden’s job approval ratings. This could hinder McAuliffe, who has acknowledged the challenge that Biden’s falling approval rates pose, as he has aligned himself to the president since the start of his campaign.
Thus, Youngkin may take this as an opening to reclaim power in Virginia. For instance, the rise in crime, the high prices of gas and certain groceries, and supply chain shortages are just a few issues that the current administration is undergoing and that Republicans may leverage to help win back their spot in the state. Some say that if the Biden administration is able to pass the infrastructure bill prior to Nov. 2, McAuliffe could use this to his advantage to show that the Democratic party has been able to do something beneficial for the people.
Influence of Former President Trump
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed and praised Youngkin. This endorsement was accepted and honored by Youngkin, but he has kept some distance from rallying alongside the former president and his supporters. While he has discussed digging into election integrity, he has also made a clear statement regarding concerns over voter fraud in the 2020 election, saying “I believe that the election was certifiably fair”. This hints at how Youngkin is trying to balance the conservative Trump base with winning over moderate voters.
McAuliffe has often called Youngkin a “Trump wannabe,” referring to certain issues where Trump and Youngkin share similar agendas, such as critical race theory — which is fueling much debate over what is being taught in schools in places such as Loudoun County. Youngkin, in response, has criticized McAuliffe for aligning him to Trump.
Education
Youngkin, in particular, has leveraged the topic of schools to ramp up voters. One debated issue, as mentioned above, is critical race theory. Youngkin has attacked critical race theory, saying he would ban it in schools on his first day in office. On the other hand, McAuliffe dismissed the subject, saying it was not taught in Virginia schools and was a “dog whistle” being used to divide people.
In general, throughout the pandemic, many parents have been frustrated over kids’ schooling. From his stance against mask mandates and vaccine requirements, Youngkin is seemingly looking to motivate more moderate voters on such issues. Youngkin has also used McAullife’s words, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” from the second gubernatorial debate to further position his opponent as someone who will side with the government on many issues — from education to public health mandates.
McAuliffe continues to highlight the education proposals that he’s had from the start, including investing $2 billion annually in education, raising teacher pay and expanding pre-k programs. He also claims that Youngkin’s plans will quietly cut thousands of teaching jobs.
Jobs and the Economy
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and issues of unemployment, many Virginians may hold the economy and job growth as a major factor in their vote. In this instance, polls suggest that Younkin, with his outsider business experience being a key part of his campaign, is taking the lead on this issue. Youngkin co-founded the Virginia Ready Initiative, which was built in response to the pandemic and aims to help Virginians find new jobs, according to his website. He also highlights his executive role in the Carlyle Group, claiming that he has helped fund the retirements of frontline public workers and supported hundreds of thousands of American jobs. This business executive background has been seen to appeal to Virginia voters, with the YouGov and CBS News survey showing that voters, by a slight margin, think Youngkin will do better at creating jobs.
Generally, both candidates have said they want to bring hundreds of thousands of jobs to the Commonwealth and support the small businesses impacted by the pandemic. McAuliffe also hopes to speed up plans around minimum wage, boosting it to $15 an hour by 2024.
COVID-19 Response
McAuliffe and Youngkin both claim to be fully vaccinated; however, they hold starkly different positions on vaccine mandates. Simply put, McAuliffe supports mandates and Youngkin opposes them. Recent polls, including The YouGov and CBS News survey, show that the majority of likely Virginian voters support vaccine mandates for businesses.
Under McAuliffe, COVID vaccines would be required for students, teachers and healthcare workers. McAuliffe also said he would support businesses that imposed such mandates. His promotional campaign titled, “Virginia is for Vaccine Lovers”, has aimed to get every eligible Virginian vaccinated. Youngkin says he has urged everyone to get the vaccine but does not believe in mandating it, as it could leave healthcare workers and teachers who don’t want to get vaccinated without a job.
Potential Effect
This is the first big race everyone is seeing in the last four years without President Trump on the ballot or in the White House. So, this race gives us a look at how voters are feeling in this new political moment. In this case, Virginia could be an important political indicator for the 2022 midterm elections. As both candidates ramp up their final campaign efforts to motivate their partisan bases, eyes will be peeled to see who comes forward as the winner of this reportedly tight contest.