As the end of the Formula 1 (F1) season comes near, only three drivers remain in contention for the World Drivers’ Championship (WDC). There are 58 points left to be split among the top three: Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, and Max Verstappen.
With the addition of recent events, there are some crucial changes to what could happen in these last two weeks. Here’s a quick recap.
From Nov. 20-23 in Las Vegas, as the circuits returned to America, we saw plenty of drama both on and off the track. During qualifying, despite their past struggles, Norris took pole position in wet conditions over Verstappen, while Piastri managed a measly fifth place.
The first five on the starting grid were as follows: Norris, Verstappen, Carlos Sainz, George Russell, and Piastri.
On the first corner of the race, Gabriel Bortoleto collided with Lance Stroll, resulting in both of them retiring from the race before the end, and Bortoleto being handed a five-place grid penalty for the next week and two points on his license.
We also saw Pierre Gasly of Alpine retire due to car issues, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli was handed a five-second time penalty for a false start, which was a surprise to many and a very controversial decision by the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA).
As the race continued, Verstappen delivered a dominant performance, maintaining the lead for nearly the entire race. Norris persisted in chasing him, and the two ended the race in these respective positions. Russell secured the final step on the podium in third, and after the time penalty was applied, we found Piastri in fourth and Antonelli in fifth.
However, fans woke up on Sunday, Nov. 23, to even bigger news. After post-race vehicle inspection, it was found that both McLarens were out of regulation due to the thickness of the rear skid wear being below the minimum thickness as outlined by the regulations. This disqualified both drivers due to mistakes by the engineers.
With the disqualifications, the race results changed, giving second place to Russell and third to Antonelli. This also led to massive changes in the championship leaderboard.
Norris currently holds the top spot in the leaderboard with a total of 390 points. For Norris, his goal is simple: keep the gap. If Norris can keep up the momentum he’s found in the last two races, then he can keep Piastri and Verstappen comfortably behind. The only thing that could make this harrowing journey to the top easier would be a Did Not Finish (DNF) from either of his two competitors.
Piastri is currently tied for second place with a total of 366 points. Mathematically, Piastri is still in the running, but winning would be difficult for him. Piastri needs to not only win and outscore Verstappen, but he also needs Norris to make a mistake. The gap isn’t impossibly huge, but it’s definitely a big one. Piastri would need to win all of the remaining races and have Norris finish poorly in at least one.
Verstappen sits in a similar position to Piastri, giving hope to many fans and F1 connoisseurs. For Verstappen to take his fifth WDC, he now needs to win the remaining races, as well as some detrimental mistakes on the part of the two McLarens.
According to most F1 analysts, Norris is the clear favorite for the 2025 WDC. Some commentators have even been predicting his victory as early as March of this year, but others are cautioning fans not to let this prediction sit as fact in their heads.
In 2007, Raikkonen, the winner of the WDC, was in the same position as Verstappen before Las Vegas. He performed and outscored his competitor by a single point to secure his first and only championship.
Another aspect to consider is the previous performance of the drivers at the circuits we have left on the calendar. In Qatar, both McLarens have seen a dominant performance over the rest of the grid the past two years. In 2023, they even set a new pit stop record. However, this same race is where Verstappen secured his WDC victory the past year.
The final race on the calendar for the 2025 season is the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Last year, Norris took first place, and Piastri landed in the points despite a collision with Verstappen. Verstappen’s performance at this race varies from year to year.
With the way the last few races have happened, I fully believe that this will be Norris’ year to win the title. I do, however, hold out hope that Piastri or Verstappen could come back and take the victory in these next few races. All we know for sure is that the racetrack will be tense as the drivers fight for their next wins.
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