The last Grand Slam of the year has arrived faster than a Ben Shelton serve, and we can’t wait to see what unfolds in New York. Djokovic’s possible last dance, Sabalenka’s redemption arc, youngsters eager to put on a show, an American man finally winning after more than 20 years and so much more. Here are HC hottest takes, and the storylines to keep an eye on, for the 2025 US Open.
So far this season, world No. 1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner has reached every Slam final, winning two — the Australian Open against Zverev and Wimbledon against Alcaraz — and losing one, Roland Garros, to Alcaraz. The Sinner–Alcaraz rivalry has already given us four finals this year, and there’s a good chance New York will add another to the list.
On the women’s side, though, things have been more unpredictable: each Slam so far has had a different champion, and while Sabalenka reached two finals, the world No. 1 and defending champion has yet to lift a major trophy this season.
WTA: redemption, rivalries, and home-court pressure
Sabalenka’s last shot at glory
Despite leading the rankings since October 2024, Aryna Sabalenka comes to New York with one last shot to crown her season with a Slam. She lost two finals — to Keys in Australia and Coco Gauff in Paris — but also took two hard-court titles, in Brisbane and Miami.
All three of her Grand Slam trophies have come on this surface. Her season has had ups and downs, but the Belarusian remains one of the biggest names to triumph once again.
Coco’s homecoming
Meanwhile, the 2023 US Open winner Coco Gauff, will have the crowd on her side. With a new coach focusing on improving her serve, a very weak point in past tournaments, she has a great chance of reclaiming her title. The American’s only championship this year was Roland Garros, and, besides not being at her best form at hard courts, the World no.3, as we know, has the talent and the personality to win her third Grand Slam in front of her home crowd.
Iga’s late surge
Last but not least there’s Iga Swiatek, who had a frustrating start to the season. It took the polish six months to achieve the first title of the year, at Wimbledon, after multiple quarter and semifinals exits. Almost immediately after that breakthrough in London, she also claimed Cincinnati, her only hard-court title of the year.
The world no.2 – previously no.3 before those wins – is looking forward to keep up with the great run and claim the title she already won back in 2022.
All three title contenders know just how it feels to lift a trophy at the Arthur Ashe Court, but only one – or maybe none – will get to repeat the feeling this year. Coco and Iga are on the same side of the draw and could face each other in an electrifying semis, while Aryna can only face either of them if she reaches the final. Sabalenka has already qualified for the WTA Finals, but her No. 1 ranking is at risk if she doesn’t at least make the semis.
ATP: Sinner vs Alcaraz (again?)
Is another final between Sinner and Alcaraz inevitable?
As for the men, the question is whether we’re heading to another Sinner–Alcaraz showdown. The world’s top two have already given us four finals this season across Slams and Masters 1000s, and their record on hard courts makes it hard to bet against them.
The Spaniard won the US Open back-to-back in 2021 and 22, while the Italian won it for the first time last season, making him the title defender. At finals they faced each other this year, Alcaraz took home the Rome and Cincinnati – in which Sinner retired – Masters 1000, plus Roland Garros, while Sinner was crowned champion at Wimbledon; their all time head-to-head record is currently 9-5 to the Spanish.
It is important to remember that Sinner retired with an injury at his last game – the Cincinnati final, and, while it didn’t look too serious, in best-of-five territory, even “small” injuries matter.
Since they’re on opposite sides of the draw, a rematch would only happen in the final, but, before that, Alcaraz could face Djokovic and Shelton, while Sinner might have to get past Draper and Zverev.
The American dream: can the wait finally come to an end?
No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003, 22 years ago. Taylor Fritz (4) and Ben Shelton (6), the country’s top two ranked players, are the strongest bets. Fritz’s only two titles this season were on grass, but he did reach the final last year, while Shelton’s first even major trophy came this year in Toronto, on hard court. Both have the game and the crowd to push them forward.
On the women’s side, Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys are strong outside contenders. Pegula was a finalist at last year’s edition but had a rocky year so far, while Keys stunned everyone by winning the Australian Open back in January.
To keep an eye on
The US Open is never short of surprises.
2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina might turn out to be a surprise. After a season marked by headlines about her coach, she only managed one title in Strasbourg but has looked sharper recently, having solid results. Given some early exits to lower ranked players, she’s not among the top favorites, but if she puts it together, she could go far.
As for the rising stars, Alexandra Eala and Victoria Mboko are two names to watch. Both will have early tough games. Eala, who left us starstruck by her run at the Miami Open, will face world no.14 Clara Tauson, while 18-year-old Mboko, owner of a beautiful journey and the 2025 Montreal Masters 1000 champion, will face two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova.
As for the men, even if they aren’t exactly surprises, Britain’s Jack Draper and Australia’s Alex De Minaur should be watched up close. Given their great retrospect at last year’s edition (Draper defeated De Minaur to reach the semis) and their performances on hard court, we could see them deep into the second-week. They are at the same side of the draw, alongside Sinner and Zverev.
Is Djokovic ‘s retirement a matter of time?
Although the Serbian has not hinted at his retirement, the signs are there: injuries piling up, stamina fading, and fewer trophies than ever. His only title this season came in Geneva’ clay, and he’s been struggling with early exits and even retirements. The legend who once seemed untouchable looks more human than ever. Still, he’s Novak Djokovic, ruling him out completely is always dangerous.
What’s there to play for the Brazilians?
For Brazil, emotions are mixed. 19-year-old João Fonseca arrives at the US Open with plenty of promise but little experience at this level. He already owns the Buenos Aires title on clay and a Challenger win over Bublik on hard court, so if he’s locked in, he could surprise. He starts against Serbia’s Miomir Kecmanovic, ranked just below him.
Meanwhile, Bia Haddad Maia is looking to turn around a tough season filled with early exits and losses to lower-ranked opponents. Her best run was a semifinal in Strasbourg, but she needs to find her old self quickly. Her first-round opponent is Kartal, who already beat her earlier this year.
Venus: The Wildest of Wild Cards
The US Open granted Venus Williams a wild card, and at 45, she’ll be the oldest player to compete here since 1981. Earlier this year, she became the oldest WTA player to win a match since Martina Navratilova in 2004. Her first-round draw against Karolina Muchova won’t be easy, but Venus has already made history just by showing up.
Predictions are fun, but the Grand Slams love to make fools of all of us, and the 145th edition of the US Open promises to be no different. Whether it’s another chapter in the Sinner–Alcaraz rivalry, yet another new champion on the WTA side, a dark-horse run, or even Venus giving us one last goosebump moment, Flushing Meadows has everything it takes to make these two weeks memorable.
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The article above was edited by Fernanda Miki Tsukase.
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