As the election draws closer, there is one demographic that could make or break the Trump campaign: white suburban women from Pennsylvania.
As a swing state, Pennsylvania is a key battleground in presidential elections, but the turnout for Trump looks bleak compared to the results in 2016. Even during his first presidential campaign, Trump only won Pennsylvania by a margin of 44,000, but half of the white women in the Keystone State voted for him that year. Now, that support is dwindling, and Trump knows it. At a rally outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Trump called on suburban women and asked for their approval because he “saved [their] damn neighborhood.” From what he saved the suburbs from is unclear, but it is clear that he is feeling the pressure from their lack of enthusiasm.
Despite his pleas to these women, the facts do not lie. Trump still takes the lead by a small margin when it comes to white women in the state without a college degree, but overall, he has only been able to garner the support of 37 percent of white women in Pennsylvania. This puts Biden ahead by 23 points with white women, and all suburban women by 18 points. Additionally, Trump won over non-college educated white women by 20 points in 2016, but is expected to see half that success this year by the most generous of estimates in his favor.
But why? What changed so drastically in the past four years that caused such a change of heart for white women in one state to potentially turn Trump into a one-term president? Many Pennsylvanian women said they voted for Trump because they wanted to see a tough guy with a business background in office, and he has undoubtedly worked hard to hold on to that persona. One key reason for this shift is Trump’s immigration policies. White Republican women are more likely to disagree with Trump when it comes to issues of immigration in comparison to white Republican men, and this is most obvious surrounding the issue of family separations at the border as only 25 percent of white Republican women agree with the policy. Another major issue is Trump’s blatant sexism, a flaw many women were willing to overlook in 2016 but can no longer ignore.
Now, these same women who voted for him in his first term but are crossing party lines are extremely outspoken about their criticism of the current president. They are talking on social media, in their neighborhoods, and to their families, and while it is seemingly unlikely that their husbands will be swayed, white women in Pennsylvania feel betrayed and are unwilling to make the same mistake twice.
But white women in Pennsylvania won’t save the country. While that demographic may be a major roadblock for Trump, we all still need to get out and vote, because you could be the one one vote to turn your county blue. Vote on November 3 even if you have to wait in the pouring rain for four hours. Vote on November 3 because you care about the people in your life who are LGBTQIA+, people of color, or disabled. Vote on November 3 because our democracy depends upon it. Keep your promise, and vote.