The Oscars have a history of unpredictability, both good and bad (depending on who you’re asking); from Spike Lee not landing a Best Director shoutout for Do the Right Thing in 1989, to Crash beating out Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture in 2005, and most recently with Everything Everywhere All at Once’s Jamie Lee Curtis beating her co-star Stephanie Hsu for Best Supporting Actress in 2023. It can be hard to predict who is winning in which category. That, however, will not stop me from guessing who will take the gold trophy home on March 15th.
You may ask, though, what my criteria are in making these predictions. Is it based on which movies were most critically acclaimed? Sort of. Is it based on my own personal bias towards these movies? A little bit. Is it based on pure vibes? Definitely. Last year, I predicted many of the winners correctly, such as Kieran Culkin winning Best Supporting Actor for A Real Pain and Anora winning Best Picture, so those are my credentials.
Here are my predictions for who will take home an Oscar (based on the main five categories). Disclaimer: This is not who I think should win (because if it were, the list would look entirely different). This is a (mostly) unbiased, genuine prediction list based on trends I have seen in previous years and how I think the Academy tends to vote!
- Best Screenplay (Original)
Who is Nominated?
- Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
- Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
- Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler
Who Will Win?
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier.
I have no reasoning in believing this other than the fact that, because I think Sinners and Marty Supreme will win other categories (spoilers for my other predictions below, whoops!), Sentimental Value will take this home. That and, of course, the fact that it is an exceptionally good screenplay. The dialogue is what I think made the movie stand out the most. So, yes.
- Best Screenplay (Adapted)
Who is Nominated?
- Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
- Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
- Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
- One Battle after Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
- Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Who Will Win?
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell.
Although I was tempted to give this one to Frankenstein (which I loved, do not get me wrong), I do believe the Oscars will want to award a less iconic story. I think Hamnet was uniquely beautiful because of its production design and stellar performances. This one is not so much about vibes but more on my genuine belief that it was truly and wholeheartedly the best written movie of this bunch.
- Best Actor in a Leading Role
Who is Nominated?
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Who Will Win?
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
This one is probably the hardest one to predict, but I am having Timmy as the winner. Now, I love Sinners, (like absolutely love Sinners), and in a perfect world, Michael B. Jordan’s double performance wins every award ever. This is the Oscars, though, and we know the best performances are the ones that usually get the most snubbed. I love Timothée! and I loved Marty Supreme, and its over-the-top marketing might be what ends up finally landing him the award we know he has been wanting. I do wish, though, that Marty Supreme came out any other year so that Michael B. Jordan can get his incredibly well-deserved Oscar. Even then, I am not sure who will win, and for all I know, this could go out of left field (as the Oscars do) and DiCaprio could walk out as the winner here.
- Best Actress in a Leading Role
Who is Nominated?
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kill You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Who Will Win?
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
This was an incredibly stacked category. So much so that this is genuinely a pick based on vibes. Jessie’s performance was stunning, and it would be silly for the academy not to give her the award. There is no bad choice here, but I think the Academy will lean on Jessie more.
- Best Director
Who is Nominated?
- Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Who Will Win?
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Going back to the Sinners dilemma- in my perfect world, Ryan Coogler also wins every award in the history of awards for his directing. That perfect world (unfortunately) does not exist. The difference here, at least, is that I really do not know or care about Paul Thomas Anderson (sorry!). When he beat Ryan for the Golden Globe, I knew exactly what was coming when the Oscars eventually came around. But again, what do I know? This could go the opposite way I am predicting, and someone like Josh Safdie could walk home as the winner here at this point.
- Best Picture
Who is Nominated?
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Who Will Win?
Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler.
I know what I said earlier about Michael and Ryan! I know! But hear me out- the Academy can’t *fully* snub Sinners out of everything, and looking at the rest of the nominees, it stands so much further ahead creatively and visually than anything else. This might also be me being delusional, but I think that if Sinners is to get any recognition at all, it will be this.
The Oscars will take place Sunday, March 15th, and until then, I will be talking to everyone I know about how good Sinners was to feel slightly less insane.