On Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, the U.S and Israel carried out joint strikes against cities with military bases and nuclear intelligence facilities, such as Tehran and Karaj. On the same day, the U.S and Israel carried out an attack that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with approximately 50 Iranian officials.
As a result, Iran has conducted counterattacks in locations such as Israel, Kuwait, and Qatar. Around 1,114 civilians have been killed so far in Iran, along with six U.S troops killed in the conflict. On Mar. 3, 2026, Iran’s top mullahs attempted to vote on the next supreme leader, and Israel bombed the event. As of Mar. 5, 2026, a new leader of Iran has not yet been selected.
Background on the conflict
Protests broke out in Iran on Dec. 28 2025. The public was upset with the current regime and oppression within the country. There were extreme financial concerns following the collapse of Iran’s currency, as well as a lack of environmental protections due to the country’s ongoing crises. As a result, there was an immediate nationwide internet blackout. Not only did this make it harder for protestors to connect, but it also prevented people in other countries from learning what was happening.
The history between the U.S. and the Middle East is long and bloody. There have been many U.S. attempts at regime change, especially in countries such as Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. A lot of critics argue that the U.S. has selfishly gone for oil interests, which is beneficial to the U.S., but often dire for the Middle Eastern people and economy. In the Politics of the Middle East class at UCF, we examine the effects of U.S. policy on the Middle Eastern oil economy in countries termed rentier states. In my opinion, there are humanitarian crises in the Middle East that deserve international attention, but foreign influences often cause more harm than good and are driven by selfish intentions. In many cases, it results in another authoritarian leader, sometimes accompanied by a degree of U.S. influence.
In my opinion, there are two primary ways this conflict could either end or continue: the U.S. could choose a new leader whom the Iranian people do not agree with, potentially leading to a coup, or there could be a civil war in Iran over who should lead next and whether the country should adopt a new form of government. Of course, I hope there is peace within the nation following this war; nevertheless, as someone who tries to remain realistic about international politics, these are the outcomes that seem most likely to me.
Iran now faces a critical moment in determining its political future, and the international community must consider whether continued military involvement will stabilize the region or deepen the conflict. As events continue to unfold, the choices made by both Iranian leaders and foreign powers will likely shape not only Iran’s future but also the stability of the entire Middle East.