What will the Upcoming Midterms Look Like?

At a recent political science event with Professor Adam Thal, a pressing question was explored: Is democracy at risk in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections? Tons of students filled the room, and the pizza was definitely a huge bonus. Together, there was a serious conversation sparked about the state of American Democracy. Centered on President Trump’s abilities, we looked into whether he could interfere in the 2026 midterms, and branched out into considering the institutional pressures that are placed onto U.S. elections today. 

This discussion explored why the 2026 midterms are especially significant to America. Looking at the history of congressional elections, professor Thal explained the research behind how a president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms. This could be due to a number of reasons, like presidents attracting blame for economic dissatisfaction and unmet expectations. In this case, we looked at Republican pessimism surround 2026, which includes Trump’s low approval rate (in the low 40s), public frustration with the economy (59% of Americans say the economy is getting worse), and the likelihood that Democrats could regain control of the House this election year. With that, we delved into the question: how could these political pressures create incentives to try and manipulate the electoral process?

From here, we looked into the broader global pattern of democratic decline. Rather than democracy collapsing all at once, democracies often gradually erode through “competitive authoritarianism”, a system in which elections still occur, however they are no longer free and fair. The fear is we are now heading toward “competitive authoritarianism”. To understand how these elections may look, we looked into possible forms of election interference, such as: vote roll purges, intimidation at polling places (ICE), and attempts to disrupt ballot counting after Election day. As to whether or not Trump could succeed in this, many are unsure if his team is even competent enough to attempt this, and whether he even has the support to do so. 

At the end, we were all left wondering whether these efforts would succeed in the U.S. with the upcoming midterms, and we emphasized how important democratic legitimacy is to this country. With such a solid student turnout, the evening made it clear that we are all waiting to see what the future of this country holds in the upcoming midterms.