On Sept. 24, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry of President Trump, following a whistleblower complaint which accused the president of pressuring a foreign power to interfere with the 2020 election, and which the administration unlawfully blocked from Congress. The inquiry marks only the fourth presidential impeachment procedure in American history. Georgia politicians and experts are in disagreement over how this will unfold.
“Look, anybody who tells you they know how this is gonna go is lying,” said Jeffrey Lazarus, Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University.
It is possible, however, to make guesses. According to The New York Times, in the U.S. House of Representatives, where the Democrats hold a majority, support for the inquiry has divided most closely along party lines. Professor Lazarus said, “When this comes down to a vote, it will be mostly along party lines. […] If it gets down to impeachment proceeding and the House votes on impeachment proceedings, it’s almost guaranteed to pass.”
In response to the inquiry, almost all of the Republican representatives have voiced their criticism. Most of them claim that the Democrats have no substantial proof of wrongdoing. Professor Lazarus commented, “I think there are some Republicans who are saying that in public because they think that’s what their voters want to hear.”
It’s true — the Republican voters side with Trump. In spite of the mounting evidence, only 13.7% of Republican voters support impeachment. The percentage has risen by four points from the beginning of the scandal.
The fact that Trump’s campaign was “cashing in” from the scandal, according to The Los Angeles Times, suggests that the Democrats are playing a very risky game. As Trump’s rhetoric is largely based on outrage and victimization, observed the article, if the impeachment goes well for him, his vindication will be his ultimate weapon. But if it doesn’t, Trump can be out of the running.
“If [the impeachment] does make Trump less popular, what you would end up seeing is that fewer Republicans would turn out to vote,” said Professor Lazarus. Pro-Trump centrists might become anti-Trump centrists, trust in the parties might change, and it will show on the ballots in the upcoming congressional elections in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi and maybe even the 2020 presidential race.
But while the political atmosphere of the country will certainly change, the impeachment will not have any immediate and dramatic effects of ordinary citizens. The change in popularity of Trump can affect voter turnouts and therefore elections in swing states or districts, but in Georgia, where the only swing districts was the 6th and maybe 7th, the impeachment won’t have much impact on legislators.
“Republicans […] in Georgia are in very safe seats[…] partly because of state-wide gerrymandering. I don’t think [the impeachment] will affect them politically at all,” said Professor Robert Howard, another Political Science professor at Georgia State University. State government is separate and therefore insulated from the turmoil of the federal government. Georgia should not expect to see the impeachment changing their laws’ political orientation any time soon.
However, the impeachment, on top of the 2016 election, the 2018 midterms, and the upcoming 2020 elections, will likely motivate more Democrats to come out and vote. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, voter registrations have surged in Georgia since the midterms. Nearly half are in racial minorities and nearly half under the age of 30; both groups are more likely to support Democratic candidates. So even if Trump does not get impeached and gain popularity, Georgia can still be expected to be a battleground for 2020.
In 2018, we have seen Democrats gaining grounds in Georgia General Assembly, the state’s legislative body. Even in early 2017, after Trump took office, there has been a wave of political awareness among young people in the country, which only grew stronger since. Across Georgia, from the time Trump began his term, while his approvals have stayed steady at around 50% — presumably from conservatives typical of a Deep South state — his disapproval numbers have gone up to match the approvals. The impeachment isn’t a start of a movement; the movement started long ago, and the impeachment is simply a milestone.
“I don’t really care about Donald Trump,” said Manav Chordia, a member of SCAD Student Media. “I think with the impeachment process potentially take place, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. […] There’s gonna be a new playing field for new politicians and the country.”
A new playing field there will be indeed, now that young voters who will likely support Democrats are coming to the polls and swing voters are no longer likely to swing Trump’s way. The Democratic wave that has risen in response to 2016 is still rising. It probably won’t wash Georgia blue. But since 2016, parts of Georgia were beginning to turn purple, especially now in preparations for 2020. But whether the trend will persist or will it stagnate and fall back, it’s too early to say.