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My 2025 Tony Award Predictions

Ella Rodriguez Student Contributor, Pace University
This article is written by a student writer from the Her Campus at Pace chapter and does not reflect the views of Her Campus.

The 2025 Tony Award nominations were announced on Thursday, May 1, 2025. As always, the categories were stacked with talent from this Broadway season’s plays and musicals.  Maybe Happy Ending, Buena Vista Social Club, and Death Becomes Her lead the pack in a three-way tie, each securing 10 nominations, along with numerous first-time nominations across the categories. Here’s who I predict will take home the coveted awards this June.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Tom Francis

Tom Francis is currently in Sunset Boulevard as Joseph “Joe” Gillis. He’s up against Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins), Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending), Jonathan Groff (Just in Time), James Monroe Iglehart (A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical), and Andrew Durrand (Dead Outlaw). Francis executes a striking performance as Joe every time he steps on that stage (which is eight shows a week BTW). This is his first Tony nomination at only 25 years old. Between Sunset Boulevard’s critical acclaim, Francis’ raw, guttural talent, and his Olivier Award, I would be shocked to see this award go to any other actor in this category. Let’s face it: the “sunset walk” at the top of Act II is just iconic. However, Jordan’s portrayal of Floyd Collins is nothing short of special, and he most definitely deserves this level of recognition. I wish there was a way to break up the Tony like the plastic tiara at the end of Mean Girls.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical: Nicole Scherzinger

Yes, I’m in favor of a Sunset Boulevard sweep. Nicole Scherzinger’s performance as Norma Desmond is truly once in a lifetime. She received multiple standing ovations at the matinee I had the honor of attending. I give her props for being able to go from being a Pussycat Doll to what I believe to be a Tony Award-winning performance, especially one as haunting and vocally challenging as Norma. Not every stunt cast is able to keep up with the level of talent it takes to be on Broadway (see Cameron Dallas in Mean Girls The Musical— or don’t, for your own good). While she is up against powerhouses like Audra McDonald (Gypsy), Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her), Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop), and Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her), I have faith that Scherzinger will pull through. Even so, I must acknowledge the history that was made within this category this year. With this nomination, McDonald became the most-nominated Broadway performer in history, with a total of 11 nominations.

Best Leading Actress in a Play: Sarah Snook 

Full transparency: I haven’t seen Sarah Snook in The Picture of Dorian Gray, nor have I seen the other plays in this category. However, I’m a fan of Snook from her Succession days (read my article about her character, Shiv Roy, here) and am aware of her acting capabilities. From a performance standpoint, Snook is leading the predictions lists because she plays all 26 roles. The show is two hours long, has no intermission, and no understudy. That alone makes the work Snook is doing a marathon on stage. I can’t wait to make it to The Music Box Theatre before the semester ends to see this play!

Edit: I saw The Picture of Dorian Gray last night and have not stopped thinking about it. I’m proud to stick to my instinct that Snook will win this category. This modern spin on an Oscar Wilde classic left me befuddled. The physical feat of Snook performing eight shows a week is unlike anything I have ever seen, ever. She’s the most deserving actress in this category.

Best Leading Actor in a Play: Cole Escola

“What if Abraham Lincoln’s assassination wasn’t such a bad thing for Mary Todd?” asked Cole Escola, who wrote and stars in Oh, Mary! on Broadway. I’ve been dying to see this show for a good laugh, and I’ve only heard positive reviews. Escola is strikingly hilarious both on and off stage, as seen in their recent feature on CBS Sunday Morning. Escola may be up against heavy-hitter George Clooney for his role in Good Night, and Good Luck, for a performance so unique, but I would love to see Escola accept the Tony in June.

It’s important to note that while the actor categories include six nominees, the actress categories only include five. This means that while Maybe Happy Ending was one of the most nominated shows this season, its lead actress, Helen J. Shen, was left off of the nominations list. Fans expressed their disappointment online.

Best New Musical: Maybe Happy Ending

I can’t in good conscience pick a winner for this category, having not seen any of the nominees yet— but my dear friend and Vice President of Her Campus at Pace, Kelly Danko, can! Kelly is in favor of Maybe Happy Ending winning best new musical. She said, “​​It was just something so unique compared to everything else in the category, from the set to the soundtrack.” This show has been high on my “to see” list since Criss and Shen’s performance at Elsie Fest last September. 

Best New Play: John Proctor Is the Villain

John Proctor Is the Villain is my most anticipated show of the season after having it be recommended to me by everyone I know who’s seen it. My best friend and Her Campus at Pace Senior Editor, Tara Siegel, said, “John Proctor Is the Villain is the most important play on Broadway right now, no competition. It addresses complicated topics in such a nuanced and sensitive way, that any individual from any walk of life will leave feeling empowered.” Starring Sadie Sink, who was also nominated for Best Leading Actress in a Play, I’m intrigued to see this show as someone who hated reading The Crucible in high school.

Edit: I’m updating this article only an hour after getting out of The Booth Theater to see this play. I’m so moved. I’m at a loss for words. I wholeheartedly agree with Tara’s statement. This play will change your life, and Sink’s performance was just impeccable. As someone who can’t stop the tears from flowing when “Green Light” by Lorde starts to play, I was a wreck when the lights came up. If you take anything away from this article, by any means necessary, go see John Proctor Is the Villain.

Best Musical Revival: Sunset Boulevard

This will be the last mention of Sunset Boulevard, I promise. Every aspect of this show, from Andrew Lloyd Webber’s score, to the ensemble, to the video cameras and screens, make this production worth every second of your time and every penny you spend on a ticket. Francis and Scherzinger are stellar leads in this modern reimagining more than 20 years after its debut. This category may only have four contenders, but they’re mighty competitors. Floyd Collins, Gypsy, and Pirates! The Penzance Musical will just have to make way for Sunset Boulevard to receive the flowers it rightfully deserves. It’s truly my “can’t miss” show of this season.

Best Play Revival: Romeo + Juliet

I didn’t see this show three times and write my review on it for nothing. Sam Gold’s production of this famous Shakespeare play was nothing short of extraordinary. Both Kit Connor and Rachel Zegler gave outstanding performances as the infamous star-crossed lovers, despite their snubs in the acting categories. If you’ve ever seen a video of the crowd outside of the stage door at Circle In The Square Theatre, then you know that this show was a hit, especially amongst a younger crowd of Broadway fans.  

Edit: Having now seen The Picture of Dorian Gray, I’ve dug myself into a moral dilemma with this article. It feels like having to choose between favorite children. I’d be thrilled to see either production take home the Tony, just please don’t ask me to choose. 

The 78th Tony Awards will take place on June 8, 2025 at 8 p.m. EST, broadcasted live on the CBS Television Network and streaming on Paramount+ in the US. 

Ella Rodriguez is President of Her Campus at Pace University in New York City. She enjoys writing about different elements of the world of entertainment, specifically music, movies, and theater. She plans events, runs meetings, and oversees all behind the scenes work alongside her fellow hardworking eboard members. She is a former junior editor, as well.

Ella is a Junior this year and studying Communications and Media Studies. She is originally from Worcester, Massachusetts. On campus, she works as a Peer Leader for freshman students in a first-year seminar university community course. She acts as a mentor and resource for a select group of students. She also volunteers with the on campus food pantry.

Beyond Her Campus, she enjoys reading, hanging out with friends, and watching movies. Her favorites include La La Land, Little Women (2019), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (2013), and The Trial of the Chicago 7. If you find her on campus, she's probably on her way to Bagel Market with her Her Campus besties, Cassidy and Sierra, frantically impulse-buying tickets to Broadway shows, or begging her friends to take her TV show recommendations. Ella is also an avid enjoyer of tap dance after competing in dance competitions for 12 years. She works as a nanny and administrative assistant at an occupational therapy office. She is excited to live in and explore the city for the next few years and grow as a writer!