With the Oscars approaching this Sunday, many critics have released their predictions for the highly anticipated 96th annual Academy Awards. In the awards season of “Barbenheimer,” many fans have strong opinions and favorites they are rooting for. Among fan favorites this year is “Oppenheimer” star Cillian Murphy, who despite having a long and established career, is up for his first-ever Oscar. He might be preparing an acceptance speech, but what are his odds of actually winning?
While Murphy has been leading in his category this season, critics argue that his win at the Oscars is by no means safe and secure. After all, the Oscars are known for keeping people on their toes. If you’re curious as to whether or not Murphy will take the Oscar home this year, here is all the talk circulating the Lead Actor Oscar odds of who Christopher Nolan calls his partner in crime.
Rite of Passage
If there’s one thing the Oscars are known for, it’s making people work for it. The award doesn’t designate establishment within the industry since it is only rewarded after actors have established themselves. This is why it is all too common for young actors to lose despite their stellar performances, as seen with Leonardo DiCaprio’s career trajectory and more recently, Timothée Chalamet. DiCaprio waited years for his Oscar, and Chalamet, despite being nominated, has yet to win an Academy Award.
The industry requires years of dedication before acknowledging someone’s accomplishments, which is why many recipients of these awards are people with more experience under their belts. In the case of Cillian Murphy, he has been acting for quite some time with his first on-screen roles beginning in the early 2000’s. Since then, he has gone on to star alongside A-list celebrities and become Christopher Nolan’s go-to star, having appeared in six of his films. As far as credibility goes, Murphy has it, seemingly helping his odds.
The Importance of Campaigning
If you weren’t aware of campaigning or don’t know what it is, campaigning for an Oscar is very much like an election — academy voters have to be convinced. You have to get them to like you. You have to be charming. You have to check all the boxes, and in turn, they just might check yours when it comes time to vote.
The general public tends to overlook campaigning, as it isn’t the most glamorous part of the award season. Nominees run campaigns to gain awareness for themselves and their movies. This can include lobbying, throwing parties, having screenings and sending ads to members of the Academy.
It’s safe to say that “Oppenheimer” gained a lot of eyes after the “Barbenheimer” summer, as it helped gain awareness for the film. While this was a fun experience for fans, this exposure goes a long way for the Academy, boosting Murphy’s Oscar odds. Some critics argue his time on the hit television show “Peaky Blinders” will win favors as well. Still, his win highly depends on behind-the-scenes campaigning, and only time will tell how well this went. However, his past awards can clue us in on how it is going.
Other Wins this season
“Over the last decade, nearly every Best Actor Oscar winner also won Best Actor at the SAG Awards.”
Jordon Williams, ScreenRant
When it comes to taking home awards this season, Murphy is no stranger. He has dominated in the lead actor categories this year, winning a Golden Globe, a Screen Actors Guild Award and a BAFTA. The biggest concern is Murphy’s loss at the Critics’ Choice Awards, where the award went to Paul Giamatti.
While this raises concerns, it is very rare to win a SAG Award and go on to lose an Oscar since the voting groups for these two shows overlap a lot. Within the past decade, only two actors who have won the SAG Award have gone on to lose at the Oscars, so winning the SAG Award places Murphy’s odds higher than most.
Critics weigh in
Some see Cillian Murphy as the clear choice, while other critics argue there is no guarantee. On one hand, it is very rare to win your first-ever Oscar nomination and Murphy already lost out at the Critics’ Choice Awards. On the other hand, his career trajectory and the popularity of “Oppenheimer” makes him a viable candidate. The race is not over yet, and there is still a chance that Paul Giamatti, or anyone else up for Lead Actor, could win it. Even though the film is predicted to sweep, some critics argue that “Oppenheimer” shouldn’t win anything at all and instead think other films in each category are more deserving to win due to their brilliant yet underrated executions. While critic Peter Bradshaw acknowledges Christopher Nolan’s impact, he argues that films such as “Poor Things”, “The Zone of Interest” and “The Holdovers” should triumph over “Oppenheimer” in every category they compete for. If this mindset carries over into the Academy, it could leave “Oppenheimer” on rocky ground. While it’s safe to say Murphy should solidify an acceptance speech, there is no guarantee he’ll be unfolding it on stage. As always at the Oscars, anything can happen.
Looking at Other Categories
“This is set to be the Enheimer Oscars. The Barb half has faded almost entirely from the conversation.”
Peter Bradshaw, The Gaurdian
Other categories face tough competition as well. There are ten films in the Best Picture category this year, all of which have been highly acclaimed and circulated. Critics say fans of “Barbie” should keep their expectations low this year. Despite its commercial success, its lack of nominations in the lead acting, director and editing categories lower the film’s chances of winning Best Picture significantly, especially when up against nine other nominated films. With tough competition in the Lead Actress and supporting acting categories as well, fans should be ready to prepare their popcorn and settle in on Sunday for the unexpected.
