Thursday 7th May 2026 will mark the opening of polls across the UK for mayoral elections and local government positions in England, as well as the Scottish Parliament and Senedd in Wales. In the wake of an increasingly tense political climate, these elections will prove to be important and suggest a radical change in the status quo. This will certainly be the case for Wales with the Senedd elections.
Wales will vote in a new voting system to elect 96 members of the Senedd (formerly known as the Welsh Assembly), an increase from the previous 60 members. The new system follows a form of proportional voting which better represents the public’s votes. The new system of voting is not the only change expected in May. Polling data from different organisations and groups have switched between predicting a victory for Plaid Cymru or Reform UK but all have consistently predicted Labour’s vote to fall drastically.Â
This would mark the first time in the Senedd’s twenty-seven year history that Wales has not voted for a Labour government. The UK Labour Government headed by Keir Starmer has shown to be significantly unpopular in polling data which has clearly affected Welsh Labour’s reputation. Welsh voters are disappointed by Labour, even more so with Labour in power in both Cardiff and London. This marks a more significant shift than one may think; Wales has consistently voted and supported Labour since the early twentieth century, voting the first ever Labour MP, Keir Hardie for Merthyr Tydfil. It does seem ironic that Welsh Labour began with a Keir and is at a very real risk of ending with a Keir, unless they can make a comeback in the future. That seems unlikely for the time being and thus, they will lose the jewel in their crown.
This would explain the voters turning to two other parties posed to take power in the Welsh Government – Plaid Cymru or Reform UK. Their interests are perhaps reflected in their own party names, with Plaid Cymru (translates to the Party of Wales) entirely focusing on Welsh interests while Reform (like Labour) is a London-based party, meaning Welsh interests would be secondary to Westminster.
Under the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid Cymru has risen in popularity and for some, has become representative of hope. This was especially prevalent in the by-election of Caerphilly, where Lindsay Whittle was elected MS. Plaid Cymru was the tactical vote against Reform while the Labour vote plummeted, losing Caerphilly for the first time in well over a century. Whittle’s victory was celebrated across the United Kingdom by leftwing individuals and group. Although May could mark the party’s first time in power in the Senedd, Plaid Cymru are already well-established in Wales, having been founded in 1925 and electing its first MP, Gwynfor Evans in 1966 for Carmarthenshire. Since then, it has steadily grown, now having four MPs and 13 MSes,
Plaid Cymru are a left to centre party that has supported progressive policies consistently, such as being the first Parliamentary party to formally recognise equality for gay men and lesbians in the 1980s. Along with these policies, the party support further devolution for Wales before eventually achieving full independence as a country. The leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth has made his position on Welsh independence clear, that Plaid Cymru will not seek an independence referendum in their first term and that they will only support independence if the Welsh population desire it too. What would also be interesting to add that if Plaid Cymru do secure a victory in the Senedd and the Scottish National Party remain in power (as polling predicts), this would mark the first time that pro-independence governments are in place in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (with Sinn Fein), which would make an intriguing dynamic with England and those respective countries.Â
However, Reform UK have sharply risen in popularity in Wales too. Likely gaining voters from disillusioned Labour voters, Reform is predicted to win a high amount of seats in May. In contrast with Plaid Cymru, Reform has been seen as anything but hope. Rather, it is viewed as dangerous and even racist by some. As expected, the Welsh branch of Reform is not without controversy. One of the Reform MSes (both defected from the Conservatives), Laura Ann Jones, was suspended in November 2025 after expressing a racial slur in a WhatsApp group chat. She and Farage have both not opposed ruling out the abolition of the Senedd, the party clearly demonstrating their dislike of devolution and claiming its failure. Ironically, Wales is yet to have equal devolution powers to Scotland and even Northern Ireland in certain sectors. Nigel Farage himself (despite not being the leader of the Welsh branch of Reform), has spoken out against the Welsh government’s aim for 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050, stating that he would scrap it if his party got into power. Much of Reform’s policies on Wales is centred on English interests and truly show how little the party cares for Wales, unless to use it as a tool for power and attention to further their dangerous policies. And of course, there can be no discussion involving Reform without the mention of Nathan Gill, the former Welsh leader of Reform who pled guilty to accepting Russian bribes and imprisoned for ten and a half years. After much controversy with Reform, it does make one wonder just how genuine this party is for all its promises?
7th May has a lot riding on the future of Welsh democracy and marks a turning point for Welsh history. Labour is stagnant and promising to make conditions better for Wales despite being in power for nearly three decades, clinging to a hopeless dream that they may somehow win while individuals jump off the sinking ship. Reform threatens the progress Wales has made in devolution and culture, possibly even bringing an end to Welsh democracy by abolishing the Senedd. Plaid Cymru represent a glimmer of hope, that Wales can make more decisions for itself rather than wait for Westminster’s approval and little funding. They offer a step closer to self-determination and a government that governs not based on London’s appetite but based on their own nation’s needs.