Power does not change easily, and it has the potential to upset, challenge, and frighten people.
The Thucydides Trap is a term used in international relations to refer to how a nation experiencing a rise in power is automatically going to create an environment filled with fear and anxiety in another country that has been dominant for a long period of time in the world. The concept comes from Thucydides, a Greek historian who documented how Athens’ rise created great fear in Sparta, and eventually resulted in the Peloponnesian Wars.
While Thucydides indicates that this concept applies to sovereign states; the Thucydides Trap may actually stem from an emotional reaction to the situation of the dominant country, and not simply a reaction to the situation of the nation that has been in power for an extended period of time.
When a dominant nation is no longer able to maintain dominance, it doesn’t always respond to the rise of the other nation by changing its behavior accordingly. Some times it will respond from a very defensive, suspicious, or even aggressive perspective. In opposition to that, the rising power wants to be recognized, to have space in which to exert its interests, and to have legitimacy. The result of this relationship may be more of an accidental hostility and a disconnect than a result of intentional aggression or hostility, however, these factors cause a lot of problems to arise and result in a gradual deterioration of trust, misjudgment, and threats between the two nations.
The modern example most frequently referenced to the historical example of the “Thucydides Trap” is the current relationship between the United States and China. The US has maintained a long-standing global power while China continues to expand its influence both economically and strategically. As both nations evolve, the world is watching with anticipation, recognizing that the “Thucydides Trap” has repeated itself throughout history.
What makes the “Thucydides Trap” so unsettling is not just that it has happened before, but because it is a very human phenomenon.
Replacement Fears
Irrelevant Fears
Control Loss Fears
These fears are not only exhibited between countries; they are experienced by individuals too. We can see them in the workplace, where the introduction of new talent may threaten established authority. We can see it in interpersonal relationships, where insecurity breeds conflict. And we can see them in society, where changes are perceived as disruptions.
Whenever there is a change of power at the global or individual level, there will be resistance to that change.
However, as history demonstrates, conflict is not inevitable. While the “Thucydides Trap” outlines a pattern, it is not a guarantee of the outcome. Today, the nations are much more interconnected economically, politically, and technologically. In the past, the impact of war was confined to existing borders; today the results of war affect many nations across the globe.
To not fall into this “trap” requires something more than simply exerting dominance over another nation; it requires exercising restraint instead. It calls for establishing trust through co-operation, rather than mistrust through competition, as well as being willing to develop without viewing development as something threatening.
But this is much easier said than done.
Once power has been obtained it is very difficult to achieve relinquishment without resistance. Once those that attain power become aware of their capability to exert greater power, they will seldom remain subdued.
So the real question may not be whether or not history is actually repeating itself, but rather are we willing to actually learn from it.
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