Oscars! So, it’s that time of year again: glitz, glamour, jealousy, gossip, and controversies. And boy, do we have a hot controversial movie lined up this year. Let’s just say, Emilia Perez’s PR team had a hard time with this one.
We all expected Dune: Part 2 to clean-sweep the awards. But then, out of nowhere, we were hit with some epic year-end bangers: Anora, Nosferatu, The Brutalist, Conclave, Wicked, and Gladiator II. And how about Timothée? He showed up stronger, diving into “a whole new world” with his impressive portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown.
This amazing lineup made it much harder for me to predict the winners. But I’ll give it my best shot with my years of experience as a letterboxd critic (unemployed) having logged over 200 movies.
Below are my predictions for every major category:
Actor in a Leading RolE
Predicted winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
If Adrien wins, it would mark his second Oscar, adding to his impressive collection—including the award he earned for The Pianist in 2003. At the time, he made history as the youngest actor ever to win Best Actor in a Leading Role at just 29 years old. Remarkably, that record still stands today!
But after winning the SAG Award, Timothée has momentum on his side—at 29, he would now break that record by just a few months, stealing not only this award from Adrien but also that unbroken title for himself.
And then there’s that SAG speech by Timothée—which, in case you missed, was something the Duke of Arrakis would say:
I know people don’t usually talk like that, but I want to be one of the greats. I’m inspired by the greats. I’m inspired by the greats here tonight. I am as inspired by Daniel Day-Lewis, Marlon Brando, and Viola Davis as I am by Michael Jordan and Michael Phelps. And I want to be up there. This award doesn’t signify that, but it’s a little more fuel to keep going.
~ Timothée Chalamet
I wanna hear his nod to the rivalry and get another Instagram-clip-worthy speech.
This makes it the hottest award to watch—and a rivalry worth keeping an eye on.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
I personally believe that Jeremy Strong’s portrayal of Trump’s lawyer was far superior, but Kieran Culkin has garnered nearly all the major awards leading up to the Oscars, making him a much safer bet. Now, is this a political issue? Much of Hollywood has generally been anti-Trump, so one could make that argument, but that’s about all we can do.
Kieran’s performance was nothing short of great. His reemergence and return to relevancy following his big break as the lead in one of the most popular Christmas movies ever, Home Alone, is impressive. It’s as if he has broken away from his childhood self, proving that he is much more than a one-hit child actor and capable of taking on more sophisticated roles.
Actress in a Leading Role
Predicted winner: Demi Moore, The Substance
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
In any sane world, Demi Moore should be the guaranteed and well-deserved winner here. I mean just a glimpse of that acting in the trailer got me riled up and unrestful awaiting the movie. But, uh I don’t know guys, you see Karla Sofía Gascón there she could snatch our dreams. It seems unlikely after her fallout on X (you know, Twitter). Who even uses that irrelevant platform now? Perhaps the judges won’t be aware of it either. In a rational world, that subpar, below-average acting wouldn’t even warrant a nomination, yet here she is, nominated.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Predicted winner: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
And here we hit the tricky part—Emilia Perez. A fake-woke movie, if I’ve ever seen one. I mean, c’mon, turning a sex change operation for an undocumented Mexican gang leader into a musical? These are serious, sensitive topics, not exactly song-and-dance material. Yet it’s nominated, so it’s bound to win something.
God, let it be Zoë, though. She was the only saving grace of this mess, at least putting in some effort while surrounded by buffoonery.
That said, I hope Felicity Jones takes it. Look at her—she played an immigrant too, but with grace and mature storytelling.
Directing
Predicted winner: Anora, Sean Baker
- The Brutalist, Brady Corbet
- A Complete Unknown, James Mangold
- Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard
- The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
A significant part of Anora’s allure lies in its direction. Sean Baker has been deserving of an Oscar for quite some time; he has been 1-upping himself with each new project he takes on.
Just give it to him already.
Best Picture
Predicted winner: The Brutalist; Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
- Anora – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
- The Brutalist – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
- A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman
- Conclave – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
- Dune: Part Two – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
- Emilia Pérez – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
- I’m Still Here – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
- Nickel Boys – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
- The Substance – Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
- Wicked – Marc Platt, Producer
The Brutalist has everything—impeccable acting, a gripping story, and the weight of a true frontrunner. As a cinephile, it’s the film that resonates the most. But with Conclave sweeping the BAFTAs and SAGs, and Anora dominating nearly every other major award, including the Palme d’Or, Best Picture is easily the toughest category to call.
Still, I’m sticking with The Brutalist.
Cinematography
Predicted winner: Nosferatu, Jarin Blaschke
- The Brutalist, Lol Crawley
- Dune: Part Two, Greig Fraser
- Emilia Pérez, Paul Guillaume
- Maria, Ed Lachman
- Nosferatu, Jarin Blaschke
Nosferatu ticks all the boxes: the lighting, angle, movement—everything. While the no-cut camera movement is daring and novel, it works so well with its theme of continued horror, creating undeniable tension.
Animated Feature Film
Predicted winner: Flow
- Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman
- Inside Out 2
- Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
- Memoir of a Snail
- Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek
- The Wild Robot
- Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
This is where you find the cuties. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind any of these films taking the award they’re all just so awe-inducing. But Flow stands out, not just for its charm but for how it was made. Nearly all of its stunning imagery was created using the open-source software Blender, with editing done in Adobe Premiere Pro. A win for this film could inspire a new wave of garage filmmakers—people with a story to tell but a limited budget.
Also, Gints Zilbalodis watching the nominations in bed with his dog? Adorbs. I really hope he brings the pup to the red carpet.
Well, folks, I’ll leave it at that—I have to go get a real job now. See, Mom? I’m trying! Apparently, ‘Letterboxd critic’ doesn’t count as relevant work experience. Honestly, flipping burgers at McDonald’s is starting to sound more appealing than rewatching Emilia Pérez.
If I do get some of these right, be a pal and follow me on Letterboxd: https://boxd.it/88Wzx. Maybe having more than two followers will finally make me look employable.
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