Black Friday got its name because it was the day that many stores became positive for revenue. With many discounts ranging from 50%-80% off during the 2000s-2010s, many flocked to the malls to take advantage for Christmas shopping. As seasons keep extending earlier, I am curious to see the actual impacts of Black Friday nowadays.
Black Friday is known for its doorbuster strategy. The doorbuster strategy is defined by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as “intended to draw in shoppers, hoping that they will make additional purchases for less discounted goods, extended warranties, or other add-ons, that have higher profit margins.” Retailers are intentionally declining their margins nearly every November. The PPI margin index coverage of trade commodities in 2009 reported that margins for apparel declined by an average of 3.6%, while retail prices declined by an average of 1.9%.
From 2000s – 2010s there was approximately 19% of annual retail revenue for the holiday season share. That means pre-pandemic the U.S. online shopping sales were only $648 million. Mind you that is a LOT of money but not compared to the billions that online shopping brings post-pandemic. The shift occurred in 2018, when online sales began to surge. Adobe reported $6.2 billion in online sales on Black Friday.
In November of 2009-2015, the margin trends start to shift. Technology retailers tended to delay price rollbacks until after the Thanksgiving Day Parade, whereas the apparel retailers opted to discount prices in the beginning of November. Starting in 2016, consumers started to see a shift that apparel, computers, and TVs would start their discounts in November, rather than waiting until after the Thanksgiving Day Parade.
It was reported in 2024 that U.S. online sales for Black Friday were $10.8 billion, with a 10.2% increase from 2023. The access to online shopping has greatly shifted how companies approach Black Friday. As consumers have seen, Black Friday was extended to Cyber Monday as well. Fit Small Business reported that 81.7 million shoppers appeared in-store where 87.3 million shoppers opted for the online version.
COVID had a significant impact on online shopping. Consumers were forced in 2020 to continue their Black Friday extravagances online. Due to this online sales revenue grew 32% from the prior quarter, making it the largest quarterly increase. Online total retail revenue grew from 11.9% to 16.4%, but total retail sales fell 4.2% in the first and second quarters of 2020.
With an increase in online shopping, companies are being forced to create mobile friendly apps and websites. This allowed 69% of online purchase occurred on the mobile app. Many apps allow an option of Buy Now, Pay Later through Klarna, Afterpay, Affirm, and many others had a revenue of $686.3 million. That is an 8.8% rise from 2023.
On average, a shopper spent $650 during the Black Friday – Cyber Monday period. The U.S. retail revenue was over $20 billion when combing online and in-store shopping, according to Capital One Shopping Research.
Remember our doorbuster strategy? Shoppers are less motivated by the strategy and more enticed by convinced, personalization, and trust. Cue the integration of AI this season, which is going to extend the inflated discounts of retail therapy to the first of November through Cyber Monday. This is starting to blur the boundaries between events.
AI is predicted to make more personalized recommendations for shoppers, including lists with potential products that they may like. Retailers are expected to see a digital communication surge via email, SMS, and app notification from the 22% that was reported in 2024. There will also be a transition to a mobile-first economy with apps and social media driving engagement rather than TV commercials or newspaper ads. News-Press NOW states that companies are in a “communication arms race” where they are trying to win the most consumers.
On a global scale, DHL reports that 75% of global shoppers plan to make purchases during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday season. Whereas 16% remain skeptical of the “hype” deals. Safe to say that I am in the 16% of the skeptical shoppers. The retail revenue is forecasted to surpass the $241.4 billion, which was 8.7%. Year over Year (YoY).
Consumers can see that by extending the Black Friday season, integrating more personalized recommendations has greatly impacted the retail revenue. While companies are increasing their chances to be in the black instead of the red, it is enforcing over-consumption core. Instead of spending your money on wants, take a moment to reflect on where your money really needs to go. This economy is inflating significantly, and respectfully you do not need the newest pair of Lululemon leggings. Put that money to your future stability and grow it in the stock market.
Sources:
Black Friday worldwide – statistics and facts
Black Friday 2025 Trends: What’s Changing in Online Shopping?
Black Friday trends 2025: What do shoppers really want from brands?
Will Black Friday 2025 Reveal Any New Trends to Retailers?