Section 1 of the Climate Act 2008 states ‘that the net UK carbon account for the year 2050 is at least 100% lower than the 1990 baseline.’ It is agreed upon that the elimination of oil is a necessary means to do this. However, the timeline to achieve this is debated. Should we immediately stop using and producing oil, or are we entitled to an adjustment period?
The perception that oil elimination is a realistic process arises from the perceived reduction in overall oil use. Since 2013, the UK has been net importing petroleum products, reaching almost 4 million tonnes in 2019. Yet, as per government statistics, there has been a significant 50% reduction in primary oil net imports from 2018 to 2019, an indication that we are capable of moving away from our reliance on oil. Correspondingly, thinktank Carbon Tracker states that, from a policy perspective, a governmental delay in tackling this issue could jeopardise fossil fuel investments on the global market. This could reduce demand by 2.6% per year from 2025 to 2040.
With the world using 100,851 Mb/d annually in 2018 (as stated by the USEIA), and increasing every preceding year, it will be unrealistic that oil use will be completely eliminated at a sudden pace. This is exceedingly true because of the reliance and relationship between governments and oil companies. Instead, a more efficient long-term environmental solution will be to adopt the ideology of reformist ecology. This will be most fluently compatible with our current capitalist structures and be the most welcomed by large oil companies and governments. The ideology will be practiced by creating more effective climate policies that wean out oil, perhaps, leading to elimination over several years.
To help us accomplish our goals, we can look to other states that are already practicing oil reduction policies. For example, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), containing many potent oil-producing countries, is currently aiming for portfolio diversification away from non-renewable sources. Saudi Arabia’s launch of the Vision 2030 policy that aims to triple non-oil revenue is a significant reduction in the importance and monopolisation of oil. Since Saudi produces some of the cheapest oil with the largest reserves, this policy dedication further indicates that oil elimination is a practicable trend. Similarly, Norway’s Government Pension Fund is diverting money used in oil to invest in electric cars, which are exempt from sales tax. The UK is perhaps on track to mirroring these trends because renewable energy provided 48.5% of electricity in Britain in 2019, while 43% was provided by fossil fuel. With solar and wind power prices now being cheaper than oil, a complete focus on renewable sources could be feasible and aid the UK’s legal commitment to reaching net emissions by 2050.
This trend towards positive eco-action and away from non-renewable resources can be seen from investment in greener energy sources from within the UK. The Guardian has reported that there have been investments in Greencoat UK Wind, in John Laing Environmental Assets, and in Bluefield Solar Income. As elimination over a few years will not be achievable, economically or practically, by investing in non-oil alternatives, a slower trend towards elimination can be achieved. By investing in alternative energy sources and holding bigger companies accountable, there may be an emerging consensus to support complete oil elimination.