The French have elected 39-year old Emmanuel Macron as their next president. What can we still stay about the political atmosphere in France? And, what can we expect from Macron going forward.
Although Macron won over 66 percent of the vote compared to Le Pen’s 34 percent, according to the official count from the Interior Ministry, the election results are still being hailed as a wash of new legitimacy for the far-right “Front National” (FN), and a confirmation of the weakness of the political left.
Nearly 34 percent of eligible voters either chose not to cast a ballot or to cast a blank or null one, the largest abstention rate in France since 1969, suggesting that a large number of people could not bring themselves to vote for Macron despite the objection of the the entire political establishment to a Le Pen presidency. The Le Pen team fought to distance the FN from its history of anti-Semitism, racism and Nazi nostalgia for years, and have met with considerable success. 34 percent is the highest share the FN has ever won, and this election was the first time the FN candidate had not been blatantly shunned by newspapers or shut out of debates. In her concession speech, Le Pen claimed that the French “chose continuity” in electing Macron. As a result, the FN will need to “profoundly” change and become a “new political force” that will fiercely oppose the policies of the Macron administration.
With respect to the political left, it was well known that Socialist President François Hollande was laughably unpopular. However, the party’s candidate, Benoît Hamon, fell short of his own poll ratings, attracting just 6.35 percent of the vote. Despite having rebelliously defeated former prime minister Manuel Valls in the January vote, Hamon lacked the support of most of the cabinet, and Valls ultimately threw his support to Macron. Voters deserted the left on election day largely for Macron or the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Macron addressed political fracture after the vote. “I understand the divisions of our country that have led some to vote for extremists,” he said. “I understand the anger, the anxiety, the doubts that a great part among us have also expressed.” Later on Sunday evening, as supporters gathered in the courtyard of the Louvre to celebrate, Macron made the French a solemn promise: “I will do everything I can in the coming five years to make sure you never have a reason to vote for extremism again.”
The Macron administration will continue to face challenges in office. Here are some of the issues at hand, along with the changes the new president plans to make.
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The Domestic Economy and Establishing a Strong Government
One of the overriding issues facing France is unemployment, which stands at almost 10% (20% for adults under 25) and is the eighth highest among the 28 EU member states. The French economy has made a slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, and all agree that deep changes are needed. Macron proposes to cut 120,000 public-sector jobs, reduce public spending by €60bn (£50bn; $65bn), plough billions into investment and reduce unemployment to below 7%. However, if instead he presides over more years of slow growth and high unemployment, it will strengthen the far right and the hard left, which together got almost half the first-round vote. To put France beyond their reach, he needs to succeed in implementing his vision for deep economic reform.
Macron has also pledged to put an end to “old politics”. His plans for a majority in the New Assembly include “new faces and new talents”, including a gender-equal list of majority newcomer candidates for the parliamentary elections scheduled for next month, the youngest among them just 25 years old, and the average age being 43. Uncertainty in the ability of Macron’s candidates to secure parliament positions raises concerns over resistance to his policies, should he be obliged to govern with the help of other parties.
Foreign Relations and Changes to French Foreign Policy
France and the European Union
Lack of a majority in Parliament may have an unsettling effect through Europe, which will be watching closely to gauge the strength of the far-right and the depth of anti-EU sentiment in France throughout the next five years. With respect to French foreign policy, Macron ran on an explicitly pro-Europe platform, and has advocated for further European integration. “There is not a French culture,” he says, “but there is a culture in France, and it is diverse.” He has specifically proposed to implement an official eurozone budget and to appoint finance ministers to better manage the eurozone in a display of commitment to European unity. Additionally, the new administration will not rush to impose limits on immigration, as were demanded by the FN. This decision comes at a particularly sensitive time as France is still under a national state of emergency as a result of multiple violent terrorist attacks since 2015.
French-African Relations
Macron said little on his African policy during his campaign, as Africa was not a decisive topic among French voters. However, it appears that fighting Islamist militancy will be prominent on his African agenda. Overall, military policy in Africa will not drastically change.
With respect to France’s financial relationship with the African continent, Macron will open Africa to a maximum of French business. However, he also believes that the partnership will be more beneficial if Africa is strong. He has pledged to grant Africa most of France’s foreign aid, which he intends to increase to 0.7% of France’s GDP. However, currently many economists and political leaders have been pushing for financial reforms over aid as more relevant to long-term economic development of African states. Of particular concern is the CFA franc in use in much of Francophone Africa, sign of France’s lingering influence over its former colonies. The CFA franc is pegged to the euro with the financial backing of the French treasury. While some see it as a guarantee of financial stability, others attack it as a colonial relic ultimately detrimental to African economic independence.
Special thanks to Lionel Eisenberg for lending the perspective of a French international student to inform this article