On Feb. 18, President Biden announced that Russia may invade Ukraine “within the next several days.”
“As of this moment, I am convinced he’s [Putin] made the decision,” Biden said. He continued to explain that while room for diplomacy remains, Russian forces will likely attack within the next week and will first target Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.
Days ago, the U.S. moved its embassy from Kyiv to Lviv as a precautionary measure to protect the staff at the embassy after U.S. citizens had already been advised to leave the country.
“U.S. citizens should not travel to Ukraine, and those in Ukraine should depart immediately using commercial or privately available transportation options,” the U.S. State Department said.
The last U.S. troops in Ukraine were also pulled out of the country. The withdrawal was ordered by Secretary of Defense Llyod J. Austin III. Approximately 160 members of the Florida National Guard had been advising Ukrainian troops since Nov. 2021. The Pentagon said they were removed in “an abundance of caution.”
Tensions between the U.S. and Russia have also increased. On Feb. 17, the U.S. claimed Russia had expelled the U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission in Moscow Bart Gorman, the second-most senior American diplomat at the U.S. embassy in Moscow. The U.S. says the expulsion has no justification. “We consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response,” a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said.
There is concern that Russia may create a false pretense for invasion. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed this possibility at a United Nations Security Council meeting. “First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for attack,” he said. Blinken then added that Russia’s plan to attack Ukraine involves bombings and cyber attacks “on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans.”
On Friday, a Russian-backed leader in Ukraine accused the Ukrainian government of planning an invasion of Donetsk and announced an evacuation to Russia. The U.S. believes this to be the beginning of a false flag operation. “Announcements like these are further attempts to obscure through lies and disinformation that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict,” the state department said. “This type of false flag operation is exactly what Secretary Blinken highlighted in his remarks to the U.N. Security Council.”
This follows months of anticipation, prompted by the Russian troop buildup at the Ukraine border in December 2021. The U.S. responded to this threat by telling Putin that the U.S. would react “with strong economic and other measures.” Biden later emphasized that “other measures” did not include military force.
The White House has also said that these possible consequences could include “the most severe measures we’ve ever contemplated against Russia.”
CNN reports that almost half of the Russian forces on the Ukrainian border are in attack position.
“If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong,” Blinken said.
The situation is constantly evolving and could drastically change at any moment.
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