Nick Clegg claimed in 2011 that ‘there are three million of our fellow countrymen and women in this country whose jobs rely directly on our participation and role and place in what is after all the largest borderless single market.’ In this speech, he set himself against those members of the Tory party who are becoming increasingly Eurosceptic, and defended the economic benefits of remaining in the European Union. According to a poll conducted by the Daily Mail, 77% of the Conservative Party believe that there should be a referendum on Europe, but Clegg defends our membership, claiming that with three million jobs depending on our involvement in the European single market, to pull out would put both our economy and thousands of jobs at risk preventing long term growth. So with the ‘big speech’ by David Cameron which had been anticipated for so long by so many being put on hold due to the tragic hostage situation in Algeria, it is time for us to really take note of what is happening in our country, and to understand the impact of leaving the EU.
Pro-Europeans defend the EU, stating that it has given us peace on a continent that had previously been devastated by war, and also highlight the importance of being part of a political alliance in an increasingly globalised world in which size most definitely matters. By contrast, Eurosceptics are arguing that we reap little benefit from our membership focussing primarily on economic aspects. They emphasise the negative trade imbalances with Europe and the large net contribution to the budget as proof that we have come off rather badly. We have all heard the arguments being thrown back and forth, but what would the real impact of leaving the EU be?
South Bank University has discovered that 2.5 million people directly owe their jobs to the exportation of goods and services to countries within the EU and another 900,000 jobs have been created indirectly through trading. However, it must be noted that we would still be able to trade within the EU if we were not part of it. Switzerland, one of Europe’s richest countries, negotiates its own free trade agreements and has not signed up. Furthermore, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has claimed that ‘there is no reason to suppose that unemployment would rise significantly if the UK were to withdraw from the EU. Withdrawal could cause disruption to the economy, but it is most unlikely that export sales to EU markets would cease completely.’
So is Mr Clegg wrong?
At the moment, it is uncertain, largely because there has never been a proper analysis of the financial impact of either remaining in or leaving the EU. In theory, we ought still to be able to trade freely within Europe, yet who knows whether there will be attempts to damage our interests if we do pull out of the single market. Whilst the number of jobs dependent on Europe is correct, is it necessarily true that these will be at risk if our affiliation is to change?
Furthermore, Fraser Nelson makes a valid point that surely the result of the upcoming referendum on Scottish devolution will have a huge impact on our membership with the EU. Scotland is largely in favour of our membership of the EU, and Scottish parliament is dominated by to pro-Europe parties: Labour and the SNP. If Scotland does vote ‘no’ to independence, it is voting to stay in the UK and therefore the EU. What then is the implication for Scotland if the English were to vote ‘yes’ for us to leave the EU, but the majority of the Scots vote to remain in it?
With so much to be considered, and this article being an extremely brief summary of what is a huge and important issue that will most likely be further discussed and analysed for years, who can really be certain of the impacts of leaving the European Union? However, it is worth our consideration, as it is likely to be affecting us in our lifetimes. Will staying in the EU hold us back? Or will it enable us to continue what many believe to be beneficial free trade in a single market context? With so many opinions, so many facts, who can be sure? What I consider to be important is that we attempt to formulate informed opinions so that when the time comes for our voices to be heard, we can represent ourselves and our interests accurately.
Picture credits: algemeiner.com, guardian.co.uk, telegraph.co.uk
Sources: telegraph.co.uk, blogs.channel4.com, economist.com