My Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win, and Why

As an avid movie watcher and general pop culture fan, I try to see as many of the Oscar nominations as possible each year. I like to be as educated about the Academy Awards as possible, so I spend a lot of time (and I mean a lot) watching movies and reading their reviews. Read on to find out who I think will win big at Hollywood’s biggest event of the year!

Best Picture: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Will Win: The Post or The Shape of Water

Who Should Win: The Post, Get Out, or The Shape of Water

Why: I have a few theories about this category, which is technically cheating, but there were too many good films to choose from. Get Out and The Post have more political relevance than some of the other nominations, which rightfully puts them at the top of the list for Best Picture. The Post is my personal favorite of the group, and I’m predicting that it will win in one of the most sought after categories.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), and Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Who Should Win: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Why: The Shape of Water is classic Academy Awards material; it’s high production value and unique story make Guillermo del Toro a frontrunner for Best Director. However, Get Out was snubbed at the Golden Globes despite the film’s box office success and its position as one of the most talked about movies of the year.  

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), and Meryl Streep (The Post)

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Who Should Win: Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Why: Frances McDormand is an undeniably brilliant actress who has earned many awards for her range of work. McDormand is the critic’s favorite, and will probably win, but I was blown away by Margot Robbie’s performance in I, Tonya. Robbie played Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding, and learned how to ice skate for the role in order to avoid using a stunt double for every scene on the ice. Robbie is the underdog in this category, similar to Harding, and I’ll be cheering her on from the stands- I mean, my couch.

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), and Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Who Should Win: Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Why: Oldman might have one of the best performances this year for his work as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, but I won’t be rooting for him. In 2014, Oldman defended Mel Gibson’s anti-semitic comments and Alec Baldwin’s use of a homophobic slur. In 2001, Oldman was accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife Donya Fiorentino. The Time’s Up and Me Too movement deserve to be supported by the Academy, and awarding someone who has been accused of abuse would be regressive.

Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige (Mudbound), Allison Janney (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Who Will Win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) or Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Why: Metcalf and Janney are two seasoned actresses who handed in some amazing work this season as their respective roles in Lady Bird and I, Tonya. Metcalf played a stubborn, tough, and hardworking mother in a coming of age movie, and Janney played a domineering and abusive mother in a movie based on the life of Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding. I’m a big fan of both of these actresses and I’m fairly confident that one of them will take home the award for Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Why: The Florida Project has been generally overlooked for awards this year, so I’m hoping that the film gets some recognition in this category. It is likely that Rockwell will win, given his success at the Golden Globes.

Best Original Screenplay: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Should Win: The Big Sick or Get Out

Why: I doubt that Three Billboards will take home the award for Best Picture, so the Academy will want to give them something. I’m hoping for The Big Sick, which tells the true story of Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon’s relationship. The Big Sick follows the couple as they navigate illness, cultural differences, and familial relationships. Plus, Holly Hunter totally shuts down a racist who tries to heckle Kumail while he’s performing.

So, collegiettes, who do you think will win? Tune into the 90th Academy Awards on March 4th to find out!