40 percent of international tourists claim to have changed their travel behaviour due to recent terror attacks. What is the consequence of this? Certain hotspots perceived as vulnerable (usually capital cities) are witnessing declining visitor numbers. Inevitably this has a direct effect on the tourism industry. Here are some of the facts.
France 2015-2016
After the 2015 Paris attacks:
– Tourist numbers fell by over 8 percent in 10 months
– Hotel occupancy rates had halved a year later
The 2016 Bastille day truck massacre in Nice further intensified fears.
Across France, a decline in high-spending foreign shoppers (often from China and Japan) has led to a loss in sales for luxury brands such as Prada and Louis Vuitton.
Brussels 2016
After the ISIS attacks on the airport and metro, several airlines and travel agencies witnessed immediate declines in shares.
Five months later the Belgian economy had already lost 180 million euros in trade. Restaurants and cafés were particularly hard-hit.
Interestingly, however, there has since been a tenfold increase in visits to Molenbeek. This Brussels district is a notorious breeding ground for jihadists – notably some of those responsible for the November 2015 Paris attacks.
Far from “disaster tourism”, this interest in Molenbeek can be seen in a positive light. According to an expert tour guide in the district, this once forgotten area is now receiving more attention: “People’s curiosity about Molenbeek is growing and that’s good because it gives us a chance to show that it is so much more than Salah Abdeslam, rioting youths and poverty. There are also some very nice things happening here.”
London 2017
Even before the events near Westminster, there seemed to be a pre-emptive fear of visiting the UK’s capital.
Compared to the previous year, a million fewer people visited the Natural History Museum, British Museum and Victoria & Albert Museum in 2016. Whilst other venues nationwide gained a 7 percent increase in visitor numbers, attractions in London stagnated with a mere 0.1 percent rise.
What will be the consequences of the Westminster attack of March 2017? Only time will tell.
Germany 2016
Despite the worrying statistics from other European capitals, the attitude in Berlin in the wake of the December 2016 attack can give Brits hope for the future. Over Christmas and New Year, guest numbers in Berlin hotels restabilised, no state of emergency was declared, and the New Year’s Eve party at the Brandenburg Gate was celebrated in full swing with no threat of cancellation.
The seemingly calm and collected reaction of the Berliners seems to have had a positive effect on tourists who, according to Dierk Heerwagen (a tourism expert and professor), continue to see Germany’s capital as a relatively safe place to visit. Perhaps this is the best way forward – carrying on with life as normal. After all, restricting one’s travel habits and day-to-day life simply lets the terrorists win.
Other destinations
Although some European cities are suffering under the terror threat, others are seeing their tourism industries thrive. Visits to Spain, for example, increased by 17.5 percent between 2015 and 2016.
Significant rises have also been recorded in Portugal, Indonesia, the Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with Spain, these countries/continents are often heavily dependent on tourism. It can only be hoped that frequentation of such locations will be maintained even as places such as Paris are gradually considered as less “risky” travel destinations.
Positivity = prosperity
We must remember that terror attacks may have a dramatic short- and mid-term impact on tourism, but in the long term it is likely that visitor numbers will restabilise.
A study has shown that it takes on average 13 months for a tourist destination to recover – compared to 21.3 months following an epidemic or 26.7 months following political disturbances.
So rather than scaremongering and sensationalising, let’s think positively and anticipate renewed prosperity for the affected tourism industries.
Finally, if you take anything away from this article, please let it be the following – we should not allow terrorists to limit our freedom or our desire to travel and discover the world.
On a personal note, in December last year I was having dinner with colleagues a 10 minute walk away from the affected Christmas market at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin. We were all so shocked – the sheer proximity really made it hit home, so much more so than passively reading a news story about an attack miles away from you in another country.
I did have some second thoughts about coming to work in Paris as part of my year abroad. But why should we limit ourselves out of fear of an incident that is highly improbable in the first place?
Let’s go where we want, live how we want and enjoy our lives as we please. Let’s not let the terrorists win.