If you’re active on social media and aware of the latest happenings, the Maldives-Lakshadweep controversy must have piqued your curiosity. Maldives has always been significant for India, and vice-versa. If you’re not aware of the current discourse, then you might have noticed a surge in news related to tourism. Maldives has consistently been one of the favorite holiday destinations for several Indian tourists, including Indian celebrities. Quite recently, #BoycottMaldives became one of the biggest boycott movements in India. Hence, it becomes pertinent to carefully examine the root of the controversy and its implications on the neighborhood climate of India.
In today’s highly technologically globalized world, one’s actions can find various interpretations in split seconds. The imbroglio began after Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, posted photographs of his visit to Lakshadweep on January 4, 2024. This was aimed at promoting the tourism of the island. However, a flurry of tweets from three ministers of the Maldivian Government sparked outrage in India. Subsequently, a digital tsunami fell on Maldives. The online battle soon turned into a full-fledged diplomatic row between India and the Maldives. However, amidst the hashtag war, a significant question arose: could this social media frenzy stifle the diplomatic relationship between both countries or is there a different story to it?
It is interesting to note that, historically, India has had a friendly relationship with the Maldives. But currently, there seems to be rhetoric built, which can be traced to the “India Out Campaign”, an anti-India campaign in the Maldives. In this article, I attempt to explain all of this with a special emphasis on the geopolitical implications of the frenzy.
The bygone days of bilateral ties
Maldives, an island country with a total land size of 298 km², is the smallest country in Asia. India is the closest neighbor to this country, with a distance of 70 nautical miles. As close and friendly neighbors, India and Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, and commercial links steeped in antiquity and enjoy cordial and multi-dimensional relations. India was among the first to recognize Maldives after its independence in 1965 and establish diplomatic relations with it. For the Maldives, India was the first friend to assist during emergency times. During the coup of 1988, the tsunami of 2004, and the Male water crisis, India assisted the Maldives, deepening the friendly and cordial ties between the two countries. Until now, there had not been any major bilateral tension.
The contacts between the two countries are at two levels: government-to-government and people-to-people ties. There have been major contributing factors for more collaboration and capacity building. Tourism remains one of the most important factors behind friendly ties between the two countries. According to The Indian Express’s analysis of data from the tourism ministry in Maldives, Indian residents in 2023 accounted for 11.2 percent of the total tourist arrivals—18.42 lakh—in the island nation. Both countries have been dependent on each other due to excessive tourism related to health and education purposes.
Recent developments amidst the controversy and ITS IMPLICATIONS
Maldives is one of the biggest beneficiaries of India’s Neighborhood-First Policy and a key maritime neighbor. India has assisted Maldives, in operating and maintaining radars, helicopters, and aircraft, with around 70 Indian military personnel currently in Maldives. As many as 24 military personnel manage the first helicopter, 25 personnel manage the Dornier aircraft, 26 manage the second helicopter and two look after maintenance and engineering. This is not exactly a military presence of India, which is being claimed by the present Maldives government. Rather, this was done to assist the people stranded or affected due to the calamities in the sea and also teach the Maldivians the usage of the available apparatus and technology.
However, the current Maldivian president, Mohamed Muizzu, elected in September 2023, carried out his election campaign on the rhetoric of anti-Indian sentiment through the “India-out Campaign”. He promised to evict Indian troops and build closer ties with China. During PM Modi’s visit to Maldives in 2019, he signed a Joint Hydrographic Survey Pact with the former government of Maldives, and various Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) were also signed. However, the present government refused to renew this agreement. The Maldivian Government asked India to withdraw its troops by March 15, 2024, signaling a shift in ties. All of these events had simultaneously unfolded in the backdrop of President Muizzu’s visit to China.
Amidst all the social media battles and boycotts, the Maldivian Government immediately suspended those three ministers who posted derogatory comments, and their tweets were deleted. The Maldivian Government issued a statement a day after the clash, which said “The Government of Maldives is aware of derogatory remarks on social media platforms against foreign leaders and high-ranking individuals. These opinions are personal and do not represent the views of the Government of Maldives.” This was a positive and prompt response.
However, the events led to speculation regarding the Maldives-India diplomatic row. Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohammed Solih, was staunchly pro-India. However, Muizzu isn’t so. This might have serious implications for India’s Neighborhood First policy. These geopolitical twists are indeed tough to analyze, considering the veiled references to India and many confused assumptions, which do not help India, in my opinion. But let us look at what happened during Muizzu’s visit to China.
The Maldives President called China a valued ally and integral collaborator. This statement highlights the prominent strategic significance of China-Maldives ties. This deserves attention as it shows China’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean. The various MoUs signed between China and Maldives related to trade, tourism, infrastructure, development, etc. clearly show how Male is moving closer to Beijing. China is already working on the Belt and Road Initiative. With the Maldives coming into the picture and the diplomatic row between Male and Delhi, many say it might be a ‘win-win’ situation for China as it poses a challenge to India’s geostrategic plans in the region. Thus, the question is: how will India deal with this?
Amelioration for this: politics of diplomacy and not A COLOSSAL REACTION
India’s influence looms large over its neighbors militarily, economically, and strategically. It is crucial to recognize that India’s relationship with the Maldives has evolved into a comprehensive one over time, with both countries holding equal importance for each other. While social media jingoism is understandable, such issues must be resolved through diplomacy as allowing domestic sentiments to drive foreign policy could exacerbate challenges.
Maldives holds significant geo-political importance for India in combating terrorism, piracy, drug trafficking, narcotics, and other maritime concerns in the Indian Ocean Region. India’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) outlook necessitates strong maritime cooperation with the Maldives as a key partner. Therefore, India must adopt a hand-in-glove approach rather than an adversarial “us vs. them” mindset in dealing with it.
India’s External Affairs Minister, S.Jainshankar, aptly addressed the ongoing tussle on January 13, 2024, emphasizing that “Politics is Politics, it can’t be guaranteed that every country will support or agree with India every time.” While India may face tough situations and criticism, it must prioritize making strategic choices that uphold its Neighborhood-First policy.
It’s also remarkable to note that even during strained relationships, India increased its developmental assistance to Maldives, which includes spending $93 million on various projects. This shows that India certainly knows the importance of harmoniousness and cordiality.
Hence, amidst these challenges, there remains hope for increased engagement, fostering mutual harmony, promoting tourism growth, and enhancing maritime security. Delhi must maintain dialogue and cooperation with the Maldivian government and the people of Male.
This is a time for us to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play, draw neighbors in, extend the neighborhood, and expand traditional constituencies of support
Dr. S. Jaishankar in his book ‘The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World’