The conflict between Hamas and Israel dates back as far as 1947 when the United Nations accepted the Partition plan, which aimed to separate the British mandate state, Palestine, into Arab and Jewish states. The following year, Israel was created, which sparked the beginning of the first Israeli-Arab war. Throughout the latter half of the 1900s and the beginning of the 2000s tensions only rose with further clashes between the two states emerging almost constantly. The most recent war, which also happened to be one of the most brutal interactions in Palestinian and Israeli history started in October 2023 due to the unrelenting oppression pushed on Palestinians in Gaza by the state of Israel and the countries’ overall difference in morals and faith.Â
After more than 460 days of conflict and the death of around 46,000 Palestinians, a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was finally established last Sunday on the 15th of January. Overall, the ceasefire consists of three phases to end the aggression present successfully. The first phase, which is currently in action, is planned to last 6 weeks and guarantees prisoner exchange, the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza, and the surge of aid to the Gaza Strip. The prisoner exchange is to entail the release of 33 Israeli captives in exchange for at least 1700 Palestinians starting with women and children. Secondly, the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip calls for Israeli troops to be moved to no more than 700 metres inside Gaza’s border with Israel. However, this may exclude the Netzarim corridor—a militarised belt which dissects the Gaza Strip and controls movement along it. Finally, the surge of aid will involve the arrival of up to 600 trucks per day into the Gaza Strip and will also allow wounded Palestinians to leave Gaza for greater and further treatment. The opening of the Rafah crossing with Egypt is also to be expected, halting Gaza’s isolation from her neighbouring countries and the rest of the world.Â
Even though the first phase of this ceasefire seems promising, the second and third phases are still extremely vague and susceptible to change. According to the mediators —Egypt, Qatar, and The USA— the second and third phase details are to be negotiated during the first phase as long as everything goes according to plan. However, a worrisome detail is the fact that Israel has officially stated no written guarantees would be given to rule out the possibility of the attacks resuming once phase one is completed. Even though the mediators have given Hamas verbal guarantees that negotiations will continue, the lack of certainty plagues the minds of many Palestinians.Â
The current ideas for phase two include Hamas’s release of all their remaining living captives in exchange for freeing more Palestinians held in the Israeli prison system and Israel’s initiation of a complete withdrawal from Gaza. However, these conditions have not yet been voted upon by Israel’s cabinet led by Prime Minister Netanyahu. This makes it extremely difficult to predict the outcome of phase two as Netanyahu tends to have immensely far-right policies and has previously stated his hesitation to keep out of the Gaza Strip.
As stated before, the details for the third and final phase are unclear. What can be expected is the exchange of the bodies of remaining captives to be handed over in return for a 3 to 5-year reconstruction plan to be conducted under international supervision.Â
The ceasefire has sparked a feeling of hope and optimism among many Palestinians and their families, offering a possibility for a better future and the potential to end the ongoing violence. However, this optimism is also tempered by concerns, particularly after the events in Jenin on January 21, 2025, where the Israeli army conducted multiple raids and detained over 50 Palestinians in the West Bank. These incidents underscore the fragile nature of the agreement and suggest that lasting peace remains elusive. For many Palestinians, the ceasefire represents a chance for respite, but the road to lasting peace remains uncertain and fraught with challenges.