COP 30 will be the 30th edition of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled to take place in November 2025 in Belém, in the state of Pará. The event is one of the most important on the international calendar and brings together representatives from almost 200 countries, as well as scientists, indigenous leaders, young activists, business representatives and civil society organizations.
Since its first edition in 1995, the COP has been the main negotiating forum for discussing global measures to combat climate change. It is in this forum that agreements, commitments and strategies are defined to limit global warming, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and finance adaptation and mitigation actions in the most vulnerable countries.
But COP 30 already stands out before it even begins. For the first time in history, the conference will be held in the Amazon region, which is not only symbolic, but profoundly strategic. The Amazon is one of the most important biomes on the planet, essential for regulating the global climate, balancing biodiversity and producing rainfall in various parts of South America. On the other hand, it is also one of the areas most threatened by the advance of deforestation, fires and predatory exploitation of natural resources.
The event in the city of Belém represents a unique opportunity to put the forest and its people at the center of the global climate debate. Furthermore, the choice of Brazil as the host country raises expectations about the Brazilian government’s role in the negotiations and in liaising with other nations in the Global South.
At a time when the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible, with extreme events, water shortages, heatwaves and rising sea levels, COP 30 is shaping up as a turning point: either countries step up their commitments with concrete actions, or the impacts will continue to grow rapidly and unevenly.
Expectations and Responsibilities: what is expected of Brazil at Cop30
Brazil’s diplomatic role in international relations has gained prominence in recent decades due to its multilateralism and its search for more space on the world geopolitical stage. By hosting COP30, the current government is seeking to show that environmental issues are a priority on the agenda, and is trying to resume the legacy that began with Eco-92, the largest climate conference ever held in Brazil.
To meet the challenge of hosting a United Nations conference, the Brazilian government created Secop (Extraordinary Secretariat for COP 30), which aims to facilitate the coordination and organization of the event. In addition to the 5 billion invested, the government’s work on the city of Belém is a reflection of the commitment and responsibility that Brazil has taken on.
However, beyond the infrastructure for the event, the country needs a robust action plan that includes the implementation of agreements and concrete measures to deal with the climate crisis. The International Community expects Brazil to go beyond the role of host and take on a leading role as a mediator between different interests, especially between the Global North and South, acting as a bridge between developed and developing countries.
In this scenario of polarization and negationism, Brazil’s articulating role is even more important. However, a firm stance will be essential if real progress is to be made. The international demand is clear: Brazil needs to present more ambitious targets for reducing emissions, expand areas of environmental protection, strengthen the low-carbon economy and, above all, combat illegal deforestation, especially in the Amazon.
There is also an expectation that the country will lead discussions on climate justice, valuing indigenous knowledge and including traditional communities in decisions, a crucial aspect for a sustainable and inclusive future.
The last editions of the COP failed to charge world leaders with effective changes, inflating fear in the scientific community. In a scenario where the planet is on a 3 to 4 degree Celsius warming trajectory, as Professor Paulo Artaxo says, bringing immediate results is vital for a future where the climate crisis can be mitigated. The researcher coordinates the Center for Sustainable Amazon Studies (Cea) at the University of São Paulo, and is a staunch defender of Brazil’s role in the climate debate:
“Brazil, with its tropical location, is one of the countries that will be most affected by climate change, and we have to prepare our society for this.”
Professor Paulo Artaxo, Center for Sustainable Amazon Studies (Cea) at the University of São Paulo
The call is not just a warning, it’s a plea to the population to get involved with the agendas that the COP brings, as well as reinforcing the responsibility that the Brazilian government has in being the host country of the climate conference. The agendas to be addressed in 2025 are not new, but they remain urgent: climate finance, greenhouse gas reductions, renewable energy technologies, environmental preservation, climate justice and, finally, adaptation and the social impacts of climate change.
The number of issues reflects the seriousness of the global environmental crisis. This year, these debates are taking place on Brazilian soil, where the people are directly affected by extreme weather events, but now also have an active voice in the discussion. And they must continue to fight, with firmness and hope, for survival in the face of climate chaos and for a fairer, more sustainable world.
From the Paris Agreement to the Amazon: what will be debated at COP 30
COP 30 will be an important milestone for the implementation and review of the commitments made in the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 during COP21. This agreement established the global goal of limiting the increase in the Earth’s average temperature to 1.5°C by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, countries must submit and regularly review their climate action plans, the so-called NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions).
COP 30 marks the end of the second cycle of the Global Stocktake, a mechanism for the collective assessment of climate progress. In other words, it will be the moment to measure what has been done so far and the results, unfortunately, are still far short of what is needed.
The central themes of the conference include:
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions:
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The main focus will be to put pressure on countries to come up with more ambitious targets and effective actions to cut emissions, especially in sectors such as energy, transportation and agriculture. The use of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas will be at the center of discussions, with growing pressure for them to be phased out.
- A fair and inclusive energy transition:
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The transition to renewable sources (such as solar, wind and hydropower) is seen as an inevitable path, but it needs to be done fairly. This means ensuring that workers in polluting sectors are not left behind, and that developing countries have access to technologies, financing and infrastructure to migrate to a green economy.
- Climate finance:
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There is a historic demand from developing countries for more resources from rich countries to tackle the climate crisis. The target of $100 billion a year, promised since 2009, has not yet been fully achieved. In Belém, the debate should move forward around new financial commitments and the creation of a specific fund for loss and damage aimed at countries that are already facing irreversible impacts from climate change.
- Protecting the Amazon and other strategic biomes:
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With the conference taking place in the Amazon region, the Amazon countries (Brazil, Peru, Colombia, among others) are expected to present integrated plans for preserving the forest and combating illegal deforestation. In addition, there will be pressure for commitments to reduce deforestation to be linked to global biodiversity and justice goals to global biodiversity and climate justice targets.
- Participation of indigenous peoples and traditional communities:
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These groups have been recognized as protectors of the forest, with sustainable ways of life and ancestral knowledge that is fundamental to the conservation of biodiversity. At COP 30, their voices are expected to be even more valued, with greater room for participation and a leading role in the discussions.
- Adaptation and resilience to climate change:
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Not all impacts can be avoided, so it is necessary to discuss how communities, cities and countries can adapt to the new climate realities. This includes everything from measures to guarantee water and food security to public policies to deal with population displacement and extreme events.
Climate justice, energy and money: the big challenges of the conference
While COP30 presents itself as an opportunity for global cooperation, its backstage is usually marked by fierce disputes between economic, social and political interests. In Belém, it will be no different. Among the main challenges are the impasses surrounding climate justice, the energy transition and international financing, recurring themes in previous editions, but which continue to lack consensus and have made timid progress.
Climate justice refers to the principle that the countries that have contributed the least to climate change are precisely those most affected by its impacts. Island nations, African countries, indigenous communities and riverside populations such as many in the Amazon suffer from droughts, floods, food insecurity and forced displacement. In response, these countries are demanding that the richest countries fulfill historic promises, such as the annual financing of 100 billion dollars for adaptation and mitigation, agreed in 2009 and still not fully implemented.
This issue is directly linked to another sensitive point: money. In times of global economic crisis, developed nations are reluctant to make more robust financial commitments. The countries of the Global South, on the other hand, are asking for more than loans and want access to non-reimbursable resources, clean technologies and technical support. Brazil, as a developing country and host of the COP, will play a central role in mediating these conflicts and pushing for fairer environmental compensation mechanisms.
The energy transition is also likely to generate significant tensions. The urgency of abandoning fossil fuels is a clear demand of climate science, but replacing them with renewable sources is not simple and comes up against economic interests, outdated infrastructure and the dependence of entire sectors of the global economy. In addition, rich countries are pushing for more aggressive targets, while maintaining incentives for oil and gas exploration. Climate hypocrisy, as it has been called, must be strongly denounced by leaders from the Global South.
Another point of debate will be the carbon market. The idea that companies and countries can offset their emissions by investing in environmental preservation is seen by some as a promising tool, but criticized by others as a form of “license to pollute”. Without clear rules, there is a risk of fraud and the exclusion of traditional communities from negotiations. The challenge will be to create mechanisms that combine transparency, social justice and a real impact on reducing emissions.
COP30 will thus have the mission of translating speeches into concrete commitments, overcoming diplomatic deadlocks and aligning historically opposing interests. In the heart of the Amazon, where the effects of the climate crisis are already being felt every day, the world will be discussing the future. And the time to act is getting shorter and shorter.
And after COP30? The next steps in the fight against the climate crisis
The COP30 in Brazil may be a milestone, but it won’t be enough on its own. The conference has a start and end date, but the impacts of the climate crisis don’t follow the calendar. That’s why the commitments made in Belém will need to be translated into continuous, ambitious and monitored actions, both at a global and local level.
For Brazil, the post-COP period is a real test of coherence. The country will have to show that what it says in front of the eyes of the world translates into public policies, sustainable investments and an effective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Strengthening the participation of indigenous people and traditional communities in environmental decisions will also be fundamental in this process, not as symbolic figures, but as agents of change.
Internationally, the agreements that are signed will have to be put down on paper. The success of the conference will be measured not only by the eloquence of the final declarations, but by the ability of countries to keep their promises. This requires vigilance on the part of civil society, the press and social movements, which have a decisive role to play in demanding and monitoring these commitments.
COP30 also reinforces the need for a cultural change: understanding that the climate crisis is not just an environmental problem, but a social, economic, health and justice issue. And that all governments, companies and citizens have a role to play.
In times of uncertainty, hope is built on action. And by hosting this conference, Brazil has the chance to show that it is possible to lead by example. The future of the planet won’t be decided in a single event, but COP30 could be the turning point as long as the world wants, and chooses, to take real action.
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The article above was edited by Maria Clara Polcan.
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