Brazil has been getting increasingly hotter. Over the last 30 years. the average number of days with heatwaves rose from 7 per year (between 1961 and 1990) to 52 per year from 2011 to 2020, according to the National Institute for Space Research (INPE).
While some areas suffer from droughts, other regions; especially in the South and Southeast; face extreme rainfall and flooding. Historic catastrophes were recorded in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 and 2025 and, more recently, in Minas Gerais, where overflowing rivers and landslides left thousands homeless and confirmed dozens of deaths. At the same time, the Amazon and Pantanal faced record-breaking wildfires, with more than 30 million hectares consumed by flames.
It is undeniable that these disasters are linked to climate change, but how does this happen? And what can still be done to change this scenario?
What is Climate Change and How Does It Occur?
According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), climate change is defined by long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns on the planet. Although these changes occurred naturally over millennia, human activity has significantly accelerated the process uncontrollably through the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), deforestation, and polluting industrial processes.
According to the Climate Observatory, Brazil released 2.3 billion tons of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) into the atmosphere in 2022. Coincidentally, the country has been experiencing a rise in natural disasters associated with both severe droughts and excessive rainfall.
The Domino Effect in the Brazilian Territory
Brazil’s climate duality has become evident in recent catastrophes. In the South, Rio Grande do Sul faced the largest flooding events in its history throughout 2024 and early 2025. The phenomenon; intensified by the warming of the South Atlantic and the blocking of cold fronts; brought months’ worth of rain in just a few days. According to Civil Defense reports and climate attribution studies, the consequences included the collapse of critical infrastructure, the destruction of rice and soybean harvests, and a trail of fatalities that forced the state to rethink its urban planning and flood containment strategy.
While the South was submerged, the North and Midwest experienced the extreme opposite. The Amazon and Pantanal recorded severe droughts that isolated riverside communities due to historic low river levels, such as the Rio Negro and Solimões. Monitoring data from IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) indicates that the combination of extreme heat and low humidity facilitated wildfires that consumed 30 million hectares just in 2024 alone. Beyond the irreparable loss of biodiversity, a “smoke corridor” formed, compromising air quality in cities thousands of kilometers away, like São Paulo and Curitiba, leading to an increase in hospitalizations for respiratory problems.
Adding to the environmental crisis, the debate over fossil fuel exploration intensified after a recent incident in the Mouth of the Amazon. In February, Petrobras suspended operations after a leak of approximately 14 to 18 cubic meters of drilling fluid was detected during exploratory research. While the state-owned company says that the substance is biodegradable and poses no environmental risks, the incident resulted in a R$ 2.5 million fine from the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) and reignited debate about the “unknown risks” of operating in such a sensitive region.
Environmentalists and local indigenous organizations warn that even “minor” incidents serve as warning signs of the structural risks of oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin, where deep-sea currents and high biodiversity make containment efforts extremely complex.
This situation highlights a profound Brazilian contradiction: expanding a new oil frontier at the very moment the country faces the direct and devastating consequences of the climate crisis driven by carbon emissions.
COP 30: The Legacy of Belém
Climate change is no longer a future concern; it’s already affecting the economy, food security, and urban life. In response, international agreements have advanced, culminating in COP 30, held in Belém last year. This event maked an important step toward moving from commitments to action, with a focus on climate adaptation, investment in resilient cities, and financial support from wealthier nations to protect tropical forests.
Despite the challenges, Brazil has unique conditions to reverse this trajectory. Its energy matrix already consists of nearly 50% renewable sources; compared to just over 15% of the global average; and vast degraded areas could be restored without expanding agricultural frontiers. With this foundation, the country holds the tools to combine technological innovation, legal certainty, and environmental preservation into a new development model.
For this shift to take hold, leadership must bridge the gap between rhetoric and action. Instead of setting distant targets, the priority should be immediate, high-impact public policies. This includes implementing robust early warning systems for vulnerable communities, ending the illegal deforestation that intensifies droughts, and ensuring the energy transition becomes a concrete reality; protecting both the economy and the lives of Brazilians.
The article above was edited by Rafaela Navarro.
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