Between negotiations and attacks, the Iran war, which began three and a half months ago, now appears to be moving toward an end. On Sunday, June 14, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, confirmed that both countries had reached an agreement to cease fire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The war between the United States and Iran began on February 28 with American and Israeli strikes and has since affected the entire Middle East, triggering a crisis in the global energy market. Both countries engaged in weeks of public exchanges while negotiating with Pakistan as mediator; everything seemed to move toward a consensus starting on June 27, when the period for reaching a possible agreement began.
With provocations and bombardments, those four weeks were extremely turbulent. Iran presented 14 demands to sign a peace agreement, such as the end of sanctions and the withdrawal of troops from the Persian Gulf; the U.S. presented five demands, including the end of Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without fees. On June 15, Donald Trump, J. D. Vance, the U.S. Vice President and Mohammad Ghalibaf, president of the Iranian parlament, signed a virtual cease‑fire agreement, anticipating the political commitment ahead of the official ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland.
However, this entire period of conflict produced global effects that an agreement cannot reverse overnight; the scars of war persist in the economy, politics and society.
Economic impacts of the war
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the action that caused the most significant future impacts. The route, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, is responsible for maintaining the balance of the energy market and for transportation costs that affect many countries. The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) warned that the war could add up to 1.3 percentage points to global inflation in 2027 if the conflict continues.
Moreover, the World Bank Group forecasts global growth of only 2.5% in 2026, the worst result since the pandemic. A 36% rise in oil prices pushed global inflation to 4%, affecting mainly emerging and developing countries. Projections indicate that the Brent crude oil barrel will average US$94 in 2026, 36% above 2025 levels; fertilizer prices are also expected to rise significantly this year, with indirect effects on food prices.
The economic impacts, from falling global GDP to rising energy and food prices, reveal a crisis that goes beyond financial statistics. These effects translate into social realities, showing that the conflict not only destabilizes markets but also directly affects the daily lives of millions of people.
Social impacts of the war
Millions of people have been pushed back into poverty; food insecurity has increased globally; and public health has been directly affected by shortages of medicines and rising prices. These effects primarily hit developing countries and vulnerable populations.
In the Middle East, the number of people facing acute hunger could reach record levels if the war persists. The UN points out that the main effects of the conflict are loss of productivity, unemployment and inflation; in the worst case, 162 countries would be impacted by population impoverishment. Navigation restrictions could cause a crisis during planting season due to fertilizer shortages, raising food prices in the coming months and disrupting the distribution of pharmaceutical inputs, increasing the risk of shortages and affecting public health.
As a result of the war, internal displacement, collapse of basic services and profound psychological impacts on the population reveal a humanitarian crisis that directly affects thousands of lives.
What to expect about the geopolitics?
Beyond economic and social impacts, the war is already redefining the international landscape. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s closer ties with Russia and China, and the strengthening of military cooperation between the U.S. and Israel are clear signs that the conflict is reshaping alliances and increasing regional tensions. Countries such as Pakistan and Qatar have emerged as mediators, reinforcing their diplomatic roles and demonstrating how the dispute also affects the global order.
Still, the agreement that provides for a truce in attacks would hold while the parties discuss key unresolved issues: the future of Iran’s nuclear program, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and financial compensation to Iran. According to Tehran, negotiators from both sides will reach a consensus within up to 60 days.
Therefore, until a peace agreement is signed, we can expect a sequence of gradual measures and intermittent tensions, such as intense negotiations, temporary cease‑fires and exchanges of security guarantees.
The article above was edited by Rafaela Navarro.
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