Tonight marks the night I have been waiting for for quite some time: the Oscars. This means it’s time to make some predictions about what will win, what should win, and what could win!
- Best Picture
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The nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will Win: Nomadland
In every other award show this season Nomadland has gone home with the Best Picture award. It’s a beautifully shot film and tells a beautiful story of America that most don’t look at. The film was a bit too slow for me but there’s no denying that it’s excellent and a Best-Picture-caliber film.
Should Win: Judas and the Black Messiah
This was such a powerful film filled with some of the best performances of the year that I haven’t been able to stop thinking about since. It was especially timely and absolutely worthy of a Best Picture win. If you haven’t seen it, stop reading this article and watch the movie now!
- Best Actor
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The Nominees: Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins in The Father, Gary Oldman in Mank, Steven Yeun in Minari
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
There is no better way to honor the late actor than to give him this award for an incredible final performance. He was electric in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and would be a frontrunner for this award no matter what the situation was. He’s won every other precursor award for this Oscar and I’m pretty sure he’ll be given the gold on Sunday.
- Best Actress
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The nominees: Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman, Frances McDormand in Nomadland, Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
This particular race is very close, with four of the five women in this category having won one of the precursor awards in this race. However, Promising Young Woman has been picking up momentum going into this weekend and Mulligan was absolutely incredible in it, giving a tour de force performance that shakes you to the core after watching it.
Could Win: Viola Davis or Andra Day
These two both could possibly snatch up the trophy. Davis was unrecognizable as Ma Rainey and amazing in the parts of the movie she appeared in, even winning the SAG award for Best Actress on the film side. However, she also did not have a whole lot of screen time for someone who is being billed as Lead Actress so that might work against her. Day, on the other hand, was the sole focus of her film and had the most screen time as the titular Billie Holiday and won the Best Actress in a Drama Golden Globe for it. What works against her is that while she embodied Holiday and was phenomenal, the movie around her was just so-so.
- Best Supporting Actor
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The nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuyah in Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami…, Paul Raci in Sound of Metal, LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
At this point in time, this category is Kaluuya’s to lose. He gives one of the best, if not the best, performances of the past year in any film as Chairman Fred Hampton. However, it does raise the question, since his other co-star and film lead LaKeith Stanfield is also in the supporting actor category, who does the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences think is the lead of the film if not Fred Hampton or William O’Neall?
- Best Supporting Actress
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The nominees: Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Coleman in The Father, Amanda Seyfried in Mank, Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Of this category, Youn is the only one to have won two of the precursor awards for the Oscars. Her performance has generated the most talk for Minari and she would be very deserving of the win.
Could Win: Amanda Seyfried
If Mank is going to win any awards it’s most likely to be in this category for Seyfried’s brief but stunning turn as Marion Davies. Again, this category is fairly wide open which gives Seyfried a pretty good chance to take home her first Oscar.
- Best Director
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The nominees: Thomas Vittenberg for Another Round, David Fincher for Mank, Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Chloe Zhao for Nomadland, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Will Win: Chloe Zhao
Zhao has already won over 40 awards for directing, writing, and producing Nomadland, and I get the feeling the Oscars aren’t about to slow that train. There’s no question that Nomadland is the most beautifully directed film of the past year, and Zhao deserves to make history as the second woman to win this award and the first woman of color to do so.
- Other Categories
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Best Original Screenplay: Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Cinematography: Nomadland
Best Editing: Promising Young Woman
Best Score: Soul
Best Animated Feature Film: Soul
Best Original Song: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…
Now we’ll just have to wait until Sunday at 8 P.M. on ABC to find out who wins!