More than two years into the Sudan War, the fighting continues to escalate and shows no signs of slowing down. Tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are at an all-time high following the recent capture of El-Fasher. Sudan has a population of 50 million, with 30 million of those currently in need of humanitarian aid and 13 million people being forcibly displaced since the start of the war.
The fighting between the SAF and the RSF officially began on the 15th of April 2023. However, tensions have been boiling between the two groups for many years now. The SAF is the official military of Sudan, headed by General al-Burhan, the previous de facto leader of Sudan. On the other side of the war is the RSF, which is labelled a paramilitary group; a group structured like a military but not officially attached to the country’s military force.
The tensions between the two groups escalated in 2019 after the toppling of Al-Bashir’s regime. Initially, the SAF and RSF worked together to maintain stability and regain control of Sudan. However, in 2021, after military power was instated, the two groups struggled to agree on the country’s direction. With both sides refusing to compromise, the political disagreements quickly grew into this ongoing war.
The toppling of the Al-Bashir regime was supposed to be a new start for Sudan. Under a new transitional government, the success of the coup was meant to signal the start of democracy in Sudan. Instead, the country has descended into years of turmoil and instability, with the Sudanese people being the victims of this political power struggle.
Major cities in Sudan, such as Khartoum and Bahri, have been conflict hotspots between the RSF and SAF since the start of the war. Currently, it’s estimated that the SAF controls 60% of the country, while the RSF controls 40%, an almost even split of power. With the RSF recently gaining power in El-Fasher, analysts believe that the next major battlefield in the war will be Kordofan in Central Sudan.
The Sudanese civilians have faced massive difficulties as a by-product of the war. Many have been forced to leave the country, with Chad receiving a record number of Sudanese refugees. The estimated casualties caused directly by the war in Khartoum are around 26,000 people. However, the indirect cost of the war is double that, with many civilian deaths caused by starvation, dehydration, and a lack of medical services. There have also been reports of the spread of infectious diseases such as Cholera, further highlighting the need for intervention to prevent continued civilian loss.
The lack of connectivity in Sudan has made it difficult for international organisations to intervene and help civilians. It has made it almost impossible to accurately track the death toll of the war, with some professionals saying the actual numbers could be more than double the current estimates. Moreover, many humanitarian organisations have struggled to get aid into Sudan due to the hostile environment, leaving the civilians to fend for themselves.
Since this is an intra-country war, there has been very little motivation for international intervention. The United States managed to negotiate a temporary ceasefire in 2023, but no further progress was made in negotiating a permanent ceasefire. The African Union has also attempted to intervene, but all negotiations have come to a halt because the two groups have opposing political stances, making a possible government formation exceedingly difficult.
However, some efforts have been made for peace in the nation. Recently, the Quad Countries: the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, called for a three-month truce, followed by peace talks. The RSF initially responded positively to this plan. However, they attacked army bases with drone strikes soon after saying they had accepted the plan. The SAF, on the other hand, is refusing to entertain any negotiations involving the United Arab Emirates as a mediator because the UAE has been accused of arming the RSF.
While there hasn’t been a resolution in the talks so far, the Quad Countries’ efforts are a positive sign for the future of Sudan. Recently, American President Donald Trump has stated his eagerness to end the war, despite admitting that it “wasn’t on his charts” previously. With leaders and organisations around the world starting to speak up on the humanitarian issues and the human cost of the war, pressure will fall on the groups to move towards peace. For the sake of the Sudanese people, who are the innocent victims in this war, one can only hope we are on the path to a permanent ceasefire.