For years, Democrats have wondered whether a blue wave would ever wash over Texas. Now, following the state’s 2026 midterm primaries, that wonder could be turning into a swell of hope — not just for the Democratic Party within the state, but across the country.
If you don’t live in Texas — or you’re newer to politics — you might write Texas off as a deep-red state, one that’s unlikely to change in the near (or even distant) future. Yet, 46% of the state’s over 17.5 million voters are registered Democrats, according to the nonpartisan nonprofit Independent Voter Project. Further, with the growing unease and dissatisfaction around President Donald Trump’s administration, even within his own political party, it feels as if anything could happen this midterm cycle.
“We’re at a moment in time where a lot of our inherent understanding of how politics works and what the parties stand for is being thrown into disarray,” says Joshua Blank, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, in an interview with Her Campus ahead of the Texas primaries. “Both in terms of the way the institutions relate to each other — the way that government is practiced — and the way that politics is organized is all changing right now, right in front of us.”
That change seems increasingly evident in Texas. “[Texas], in the past, may be considered a purple state, but that fluctuates,” Brian Peña, Congressional District 37 representative on the Texas Democratic Party governing board, says. “Attention fluctuates depending on our top of the ballot. But, right now, Texas is probably the best position we’ve ever been in to flip the state.”
Texas is huge, both geographically and population-wise. The state has one of the largest electoral votes in the country (it had 40 in the 2024 presidential election) and sends 38 politicians to the U.S. House every session (second only to California’s 52). All told, Texas is one of the biggest players in Washington. In other words, what happens in Texas could indicate what will happen outside of Texas too.
So, if you’re wondering what might be in store as the country heads into one of the most high-stakes midterms cycles in history, you should keep your eye on the Lone Star State.
Texas Democrats are showing up and out.
What makes this year different, Peña says, is that the state Democratic party isn’t betting on one unicorn candidate to lead the ticket. (Like it did in 2018, when then-U.S. House Rep. Beto O’Rourke challenged Sen. Ted Cruz for his seat in the U.S. Senate, and, despite capturing a record-breaking number of votes for a Texas Democrat, lost.)
The biggest headline from Texas’s March 3 primary was state Rep. James Talarico winning the Democratic Party nomination for U.S. Senate over U.S. House Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a race that garnered national attention. Across the board, money spent on advertising alone surpassed previous records, making the primary election in Texas for this seat one of the most expensive in history.
Unlike the GOP, which has a party leader in the current sitting president, no strong Democratic politician has been able to step up and take their message up to the national level. With the splashiness from the primaries boosting him to national attention (even among households that aren’t particularly politically inclined, thanks to that Stephen Colbert interview snafu), it’s possible that Talarico could be the one to lead the way for Democrats nationwide to excite voters in the midterms.
Stateside, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for governor, is showing some promise as she takes on third-term Gov. Greg Abbott. According to her campaign’s internal polling, Hinojosa is “statistically tied” with Abbott (meaning the margin of error on the survey was even with the gap between the two candidates). Hinojosa has publicly denounced Abbott’s role in immigration enforcement in Texas and promised as governor, she would “never offer up Texas as a staging ground for operations that terrorize families and enrich [Abbott’s] donors.”
Peña also points to strong, popular candidates running for local offices in their communities that, if elected, would boost Democratic odds overall. See South Texas’s Bobby Pulido, who recently went viral for his “Make Quinceañeras Great Again” campaign. The former Tejano superstar performs for free at various quinces throughout his potential district, a promise he made after Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz posted an attack ad on social media saying the only place he belongs is “playing quinceañeras.”
In Texas, Democrats across the ballot are building their platforms on progressivism and working against MAGA, while appealing to moderates and even conservatives in their attempt to garner more control in the heavily red state (which, by request of Trump, has been redrawn to be even more red). And people are taking notice.
Immigration is shaping up to be a deciding issue.
While the economy, the war in Iran, and voting rights are among the top issues for American voters going to the ballot box this year, according to a March NBC poll, 54% of voters gave the president “poor marks” on his handling of immigration, citing his mass deportation policies and the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.
Although the ICE presence seen in cities like Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Washington D.C. haven’t yet reached citywide-takeover levels in the Lone Star State, the state’s ongoing involvement in Trump’s vision for immigration enforcement in his second term hit especially close to home.
Texas is home to four detention centers and two more are on the way. Additionally, Abbott’s Operation Lone Star, which started under President Joe Biden, uses state resources “to protect Texans and Americans from the unprecedented border crisis,” according to the governor’s website. (This was the operation that also bussed immigrants from Texas to “sanctuary” cities across the nation, which, unless the individuals voluntarily agreed to travel, is illegal.)
“President Trump might not be on the ballot literally, but his policies certainly are,” Peña says. “ICE is top of mind wherever you are in the state.”
Almost half of Texas voters disapprove of Trump’s immigration tactics, according to the Texas Politics Project, mirroring nationwide sentiments that more pathways to citizenship should be offered over intense enforcement.
“Immigrants are not the danger; politicians like Donald Trump are, the corporations that fund him are, and the coward politicians who refused to say anything about it are the danger in this country,” U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, who represents parts of Austin and San Antonio and just won the party nomination to retain his seat, told a crowd at an East Austin rally earlier this year. “And now we need all elected officials to commit to the same — everyone that represents you needs to do the same. And if they don’t, we vote them out.”
Yet, it’s still up to voters.
It’s not like a flip was switched on in Texas and suddenly it’s blue. But it’s not solid red, either, Democrats say. “I’m a big believer that Texas is not a red state, just an under-organized state,” Peña says. But that may be changing, with leaders showing up for the community and connecting with them.
And whether or not a blue wave actually comes to Texas this November, this kind of momentum Texas is seeing may be a beacon for the rest of the country. As Peña puts it, “[It gives] some hope to folks across the country, and some hope [that] the Trump administration does not have a lock over these communities, and that they can fight back against them and choose to send people to Congress to fight him.”