Swinging To and Fro: Swing States in the Election of 2012

On the first day of the Political Parties, Campaigns, and Elections class I am taking this semester, my professor Dorothy James told us that no matter what the media predict for election day, “It all depends on who turns out.” My professor was right- everyone IS saying this. Media sources are also emphasizing the importance of swing states in this year’s presidential election between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, including New Hampshire, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. 

There are less than 11 days until Election Day and everywhere you turn sources are anxiously spitting out polling numbers and trying put themselves in a place where they can turn around and say, “Look! We predicted this!” Someone who has such clout today is Nate Silver, a 34 year-old statistician currently writing the “FiveThirtyEight” blog for The New York Times. In the 2008 election, Silver predicted 49 of the 50 states (all except Indiana) correctly.  

According to Silver, the swing states will be swinging in the following ways:

New Hampshire: 68.8% chance of Obama victory
Florida: 64.7% chance of Romney victory
Colorado: 56.8% chance of Obama victory
Iowa:  68.3% chance of Obama victory
Nevada: 77.6% chance of Obama victory
North Carolina: 81.4% of Romney victory
Ohio: 74.8% chance of Obama victory
Virginia: 54.3% chance of Obama victory
Wisconsin: 85.7% chance of Obama victory

Of course, other websites have different predicitions. Politico‘s projection for the swing states sees Romney winning Florida and North Caroline as Silver predicts, but also sees him gaining the majority in Colorado, and Virginina. The actual percentage predictions from Politico are much closer than Silver’s- some even a tie (Colorado: 47.8% to 47.8%). Will one state be the tipping point state like Florida in 2000? Predictions about that are being projected as well.

While it is exciting to track who the winner may be, it is important to remember that websites and other publications are all using different data. It is virtually impossible for the average voter to interpret whether or not a poll has legitimacy or not, but I think that sticking with the big names like The New York Times and The Washington Post. If you’re interested in some of the most recent articles, see below. 

The New York Times
The Deciders (October 26)
The State of the States (October 25)

The Washington Post
Election’s poll workers face a myriad of challenges amid changes in voting rules (October 26)
Poll shows widening racial gap in presidential contest (October 26)