Brazil’s 2026 presidential election comes at an important time for the Amazon rainforest. As the world’s largest tropical rainforest and a key part of the global climate system, often called the “lungs of the world,” the Amazon plays an important role in storing carbon, regulating rainfall, and protecting biodiversity. The policies adopted by Brazil’s next government will help determine how the country balances forest protection, economic development, and the interests of the communities that live in the region.
The election also takes place as Brazil reports a significant decline in deforestation. According to the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Amazon lost 5,731 square kilometers of forest between August 2024 and July 2025, a 12.07% decrease compared to the previous monitoring period. More recent data, released in October 2026, show that deforestation has fallen again, reaching 3,335 square kilometers in the 12 months leading up to July 2026. This is the lowest annual rate since monitoring began in 1988. These figures make the next government’s environmental priorities especially important for the future of the rainforest.
How Brazil’s Climate Policy Reached This Point
Environmental policy has changed significantly under Brazil’s recent administrations. The president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took office in 2023, placed the fight against deforestation at the center of his climate agenda and committed to ending illegal deforestation by 2030. His strategy includes environmental monitoring, enforcement against illegal activities, and initiatives to attract investment in the green economy.
The latest figures suggest that forest loss has decreased, but this does not mean the problem has been solved. Illegal logging, land grabbing, mining, and the use of fire to clear land remain major challenges. Deforestation is also linked to broader issues, such as land ownership, infrastructure, agricultural expansion, and the ability of public agencies to enforce environmental laws.
The future of Amazon, therefore, depends on more than a single target. It also depends on the consistent enforcement of environmental regulations, the resources available to monitor remote areas, and the possibility of developing economic activities that generate income without putting greater pressure on the rainforest.
What the Election Could Mean for the Amazon
The presidential runoff, scheduled for October 25, will determine who leads Brazil for the next four years. The result will influence government priorities, its approach to environmental enforcement, and the way it negotiates with Congress over laws related to land use and conservation.
President Lula is seeking a new term after making Amazon protection and climate diplomacy priorities of his administration. His opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, has also stated that he intends to fight illegal deforestation, while emphasizing market-based approaches and economic activity. The candidates’ government plans and public statements offer a starting point for understanding how their administrations might approach environmental policy. Voters can consult the official proposals published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), rather than relying only on campaign slogans or public commentary about the candidates.
The election alone will not determine environmental policy. Congress, state governments, courts, businesses, and civil society organizations also influence how laws are developed and enforced. Even a president with ambitious climate goals must work within these institutions to put those goals into practice.
The Amazon Is Also a Matter of Rights
Forest protection is directly connected to the rights and living conditions of Indigenous peoples and traditional communities. These groups hold valuable knowledge about local ecosystems and depend on the forest for their livelihoods, culture, and food. Decisions about mining, agriculture, infrastructure, and protected areas can affect both biodiversity and the communities that live in the region.
Brazil’s environmental policy is also part of a broader legal and political debate. In 2026, Congress overturned presidential vetoes on parts of a new environmental licensing law, raising concerns among environmental organizations about changes to the approval process for projects that could affect forests and local communities. The law and its implementation deserve attention because licensing rules help determine how environmental risks are assessed before construction or economic activities begin.
This means that the future of the Amazon depends on more than the number of trees cut down each year. It also involves who participates in decisions about the land, how environmental impacts are assessed, and whether communities’ rights are protected.
Beyond Deforestation: Brazil’s Role in Climate Action
Brazil’s influence extends beyond its own borders. The country hosted the United Nations climate conference, COP30, in Belém, in November of 2025. The event brought international attention to the Amazon and sparked discussions about climate finance, adaptation, and the energy transition. The conference also highlighted the need to turn international commitments into policies and resources that can be put into practice at both national and local levels.
The next administration will have to address questions about maintaining climate commitments, financing conservation, and supporting economic activities that depend on keeping the forest standing. Brazil is also developing initiatives to attract investment in forest restoration, sustainable agriculture, and bioeconomy projects. The scale and continuity of these efforts will depend on budget decisions, regulations, and cooperation between public and private institutions.
Climate policy is not limited to protecting trees. It also involves preparing communities for extreme weather events, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and ensuring that economic changes do not leave vulnerable populations behind. For Brazil, the Amazon connects these domestic challenges to international climate negotiations.
What Happens After the Vote?
The election will determine the direction of Brazil’s federal government, but its environmental consequences will unfold over time. Monitoring data, enforcement actions, funding, legislation, and the protection of Indigenous territories will help show how campaign promises are turned into public policies.
The decline in deforestation provides a measurable indicator for tracking this progress, while fires, illegal land use, and disputes over environmental regulations show that challenges remain. The next government will make decisions that affect the rainforest, the people who depend on it, and Brazil’s broader climate commitments.
The future of the Amazon will not be decided by a single election. However, the next presidential term will help determine which policies are maintained, which are changed, and how Brazil defines its responsibilities toward one of the world’s most important ecosystems.
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The article above was edited by Camilly Vieira.
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