(This article was written after Week 2 of Dancing with the Stars Season 35.)
On September 16, Dancing with the Stars began its 35th season with celebrity contestants including Julia Stiles (10 Things I Hate About You), Ciara Miller (Summer House), and Guillermo Rodriguez (Jimmy Kimmel Live!). The ABC series premiered on June 1, 2005, and follows stars as they learn and compete in ballroom with a pro dancer.
Previous winners include Meryl Davis (season 18), Laurie Hernandez (season 23), and Robert Irwin (season 34). Judges Carrie Ann Inaba, Derek Hough, and Bruno Tonioli scored the couple out of 30. Hough’s sister, Julianne, is the show’s host alongside season 19 winner Alfonso Ribeiro
In just 10 weeks, a Mirrorball champion will be crowned based on scores and audience votes. But before I share my predictions, let’s recap the first two weeks of competition.
The season 35 premiere was split into two nights (Tuesday and Wednesday), with the men competing first. The pros opened the episode with a routine choreographed to “Dancing On My Own” by Robyn. Savannah Banana’s Jackson Olsen cha-chaed first alongside his partner, Emma Staler. Harry Sum Jr. (Glee) and Jenna Johnson topped the leaderboard with a score of 21/30.
In contrast, Guillermo Rodriguez and Witney Carson received the second-lowest score in the show’s history: 10/30. However, the fans ultimately sent Conner L. and Adele home.
The other male scores were: Ezra French and Daniella Karagach, 20 (7, 6, 7); Tyler Cameron and Sharna Burgess, 17 (6, 5, 6); Connor Wood and Rylee Arnold, 16 (6,5,5), Taylor Handson and Britt Stewart, 16 (6, 5, 5).
On Wednesday night, Sarah Jane Nader (Love Thy Nader) and Hailey Bills (7,7,7) were eliminated after jiving to Avril Lavigne’s “Sk8er Boi.” Maura Higgins (Love Island U.K.) and Mark Ballas received 21 points, alongside Jenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy with 19.
Julia Stiles (with Ezra Sosa) and Amber Glen (with Pasha Pashkov) each earned 18 points. Other female contestants included Giada De Laurentiis (16), Ciara Miller (15), and Tatyana Ali (12).
The couples’ second routines were choreographed to viral songs on social media such as “September” by Earth, Wind & Fire and Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True.” Unfortunately, Giada De Laurentiis and Alan Bersten were eliminated after receiving a 12/30.
In the third week, contestants danced to yacht rock—Britt Stewart and Taylor Hanson were shockingly eliminated with an 18/30. Both Amber Glenn and Harry Shum Jr. topped the leaderboard with a 24/30.
Predictions
Based on the scores and reactions of the first few weeks, I predict that Ezra French and Daniella Karagach will win the mirrorball. The other couples I believe will reach the finale are (in ranking): Maura Higgins and Mark Ballas, Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Johnson, Julia Stiles and Ezra Sosa, and Amber Glenn and Pasha Pashkov
As pro Witney Carson stated in her Instagram story, Dancing with the Stars “is not a dance competition,” but rather a popularity contest. Of course, dancing is a large part of the series, but many couples who receive low scores continue longer than expected because of their fan base.
For example, Season 28 contestant Sean Spicer averaged a 16.75/30 and received media criticism. He stated, “It’s a slap in the face to those of us who had to deal with his baloney and the consequences of the ongoing lies and disinformation campaign at the White House” (Oliver Darcy, CNN) for participating in the series. But the presidential press secretary placed 6th.
So, regardless of how I interpret the celebrities’ dance skills, my predictions are partially based on their reputation. Hence, Rodriguez and Carson’s predicted 8th-place finish. After Rodriguez’s first dance, the studio audience erupted in applause, and it was clear the ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ sidekick was a fan favorite.
He also garnered 794,000 views for his “Viral Hits Night Paso Doble” in 3 days, compared to Tyler Cameron’s 180,000. Rodriquez might spend the majority of his routine rolling on the ground, but he’ll definitely keep rolling into at least week 6.
Both Jenna Dewan and Harry Shum Jr. are former professional dancers, which gives the two a physical advantage. However, celebrities cast with prior dance experience have had mixed results.
Heather Morris (season 24), a former background dancer for Beyoncé and Shum’s Glee co-star, was eliminated in week 6 despite earning the first perfect score that year. Jojo Siwa (season 30) from ‘Dance Moms’ finished second, while Hilaria Baldwin (season 34) was eliminated fourth. Even though Dewan is currently tied for first, her YouTube views remain low, suggesting a weak fan base and an earlier elimination.
Furthermore, athletes’ stamina and coordination help them compete. Ezra French, a Paralympic athlete, topped the leaderboard for week 2 and earned 520,000 views on YouTube and 3.2 million views on Instagram.Yet to win the Mirrorball, French will have to battle against Maura Higgins and her 4.4 million Instagram followers. Other champion contenders are Save the Last Dance actress Julia Stiles and ice skater Amber Glenn.
With six weeks of competition left, there is still plenty of room for change. I am confident in my predictions; how do you feel about yours?