This year’s WNBA playoffs are shaping up to be the most exciting yet! The seeds of the eight playoff teams weren’t decided until the last day of the regular season. Only seven wins separate the entire playoff field, but don’t be fooled by the seeding: every team has weaknesses. The #1 seed, Minnesota Lynx, have only won two of their last six games. It’s anyone’s game this year, and I’m here to break it down!
The Format
The playoffs include the league’s eight best teams after the 44-game regular season. Teams are seeded by total wins, and if they’re tied, they’re seeded by their head-to-head matchup. This means that whoever won the season series (the three times these teams played each other in the regular season) gets a higher seed.
Teams then match up by seed, with the top team getting the easiest opponent (#8), the second team getting the second-easiest opponent (#7), and so on. The first round is best-of-three. Then the winners advance to the semis to play best-of-five, and the finals are best-of-seven.
First Round Matchups
Since the first round of playoffs is a best-of-three series, a team needs only two wins to move on — which means we’re primed for a few upsets! Here’s what those matchups look like, and who I’m picking to win:
Minnesota Lynx (1) v. New York Liberty (8)
A rematch of the 2024 finals in the first round? Sign me up. Even though they’ve been pilled by injuries and inconsistent play from their stars, the eight-seed Liberty might be the team Minnesota least wants to see. The Lynx did lose the season series 1-2, but even then, I’m still going with Minnesota. It’s hard not to back a team with the best record in the league, last year’s MVP runner-up, and three more All-Stars (yes, they’re that good).
Golden State Valkyries (2) vs. Dallas Wings (7)
Probably the least interesting matchup, I’m taking the Valkyries here and wouldn’t be surprised if they win it in the first two games. Golden State is the only team to go 3-0 against their first-round matchup in the regular season. The Valkyries have the league’s best defense, specializing in shutting down guards, and Dallas’ success relies almost entirely on point guard Paige Bueckers.
Las Vegas Aces (3) vs. Indiana Fever (6)
I feel like I could write the same thing for each of these teams, which means it should be about as even as you can get. Their strengths are each other’s strengths, and their weaknesses are each other’s weaknesses.
The teams are top-heavy with three superstars, but lacking defense and depth, especially with recent injuries to key centers. I’m expecting this to be close (and high-scoring), but I ultimately will never bet against the team that has a four-time MVP and has won three of the last four championships.
Atlanta Dream (4) vs. Washington Mystics (5)
These two teams have been on a heater lately, finishing the regular season as strong as ever. Since veteran DeWanna Bonner signed with the Dream midseason, the team has seemed almost unstoppable, but the Mystics have their number after going 2-1 in the regular season.
The Mystics weren’t supposed to be in the playoffs after going 16-28 last year, but they won game after game this season with a team full of sophomores and rookies; No one saw them coming, and yet, that’s why I’m picking them to win this series. They have nothing to lose.
My Winner Pick
Golden State Valkyries
Is this a biased pick? Sure. The Valkyries are my hometown team — but there’s also evidence to back it up. We’ve all heard the saying “defense wins championships,” and the Valkyries have the best defense in the league by far. This season, they held their opponents to a league-low 75.1 points per game. For reference, the next closest team to this number is the Mystics with 82.7 points per game.
Maybe more importantly is the Valkyries’ mentality. Despite being the first-ever expansion team to make the playoffs last year and finishing second in the league this year, the Valkyries don’t get much credit in the media. They don’t have an MVP candidate, and they likely won’t even have a player on an All-WNBA team (the league’s 10 best players).
Instead, they have an excellent coach, stellar defense, and a team that plays as a team. People will say they can’t win without a bona fide star to go to in the clutch, and while that may end up being true, all this chatter gives them a chip on their shoulder. A two-seed with an underdog mentality is a scary sight.
Tune in to catch the playoffs now!
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