Picture this: you’re walking up and down the aisles at Sephora trying to pick between Summer Fridays, Laneige, or Rhode. There are probably many women around you doing the same. Well, someone was doing the same thing in 2008 during the Great Recession, except they were probably picking between Mac, Nars, or maybe even Dior, and their Sephora might have looked a little different.
Something else was also a little different besides the popular brands for the time, and it had to do with the economy. The U.S. was in the middle of the Great Recession. During a recession, most budget themselves and spend less on non-necessities. Surprisingly, during the 2008 recession, cosmetic consumption actually increased.
This hypothesis that during times of financial hardship, more women were investing in more high-end beauty products, was originated by Juliet Schor in 1998, in her book titled The Overspent American. She found in her research that women tended to splurge on luxury lipstick brands rather than on luxury skincare or eye products. Schor emphasized that these luxury lipstick brands were usually used in public spaces such as bathrooms or restaurants, compared with skin or eye products used in the comfort of women’s homes.
The theory was publicized in 2001 when Leonard Lauder, the chairman of Estée Lauder, reported that after 9/11, the company had seen a rise in lipstick sales. Lauder brought up the theory seven years later, after the 2008 recession, saying that the company had begun to see a second rise in lipstick sales.
In economic hardship, when women can’t spend money on luxurious items for their appearance, they often turn to the little things that help them still feel like themselves. A little bit of lipstick goes a long way; the perfect shade of red can boost morale.
While the U.S. is not currently in a recession, some economists have expressed concerns about the economy’s future. According to a statement CNBC obtained from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, Zandi said he’s concerned about recession risks, which are on the rise: “recession is a real threat here,” he told CNBC.
Along with the proposed threat of a recession, lipstick sales are growing. According to Grandview Research, “The global lipstick market size was valued at USD 17.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 23.77 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2025 to 2030.”
So, ladies, keep your eyes on those lipstick sales in the near future. You may know there’s a recession coming before economists do.