The death of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader for more than three decades, on February 28th, has reignited debates about the country’s political future. One of the most pressing questions is: what this moment could mean for Iranian women, who have been at the center of protests and social change in the country for years?
While some observers see the leadership transition as a potential turning point, many analysts warn that meaningful change will depend less on the death of a single leader and more on the survival of the ideological system that sustains the regime.
For Iranian women, the future answer lies somewhere between hope and uncertainty.
A HISTORY THAT PREDATES THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
To understand the current debate, it is necessary to look back at Iran before the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
According to political scientist Gunther Rudzit, professor of International Relations at the School of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM) in Brazil, Iranian women had a significantly different role in society during the reign of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
During the modernization policies known as the White Revolution in the 1960s, women gained broader access to education and professional careers. They worked across several sectors and were not required to wear the Islamic veil. “The Iran of the 1960s and 1970s was highly westernized,” Rudzit explains. “Women studied, worked in many professions, and were active participants in society.”
After the revolution led by Ruhollah Khomeini, however, the new Islamic Republic imposed stricter religious rules. The hijab became mandatory, and women faced restrictions in political and professional spheres.
Even so, women were never fully excluded from public life. They continued to study at universities and work in fields such as medicine, law, and education.
A GENERATION GROWN UP UNDER RESTRICTIONS
More than four decades later, Iranian society has changed significantly. Today, nearly half of the country’s population is under the age of 30, and women represent a large share of university students. This demographic transformation has played young women, especially students, among the most visible voices challenging the regime.
The turning point came after the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. The young Kurdish woman died after being detained by Iran’s morality police for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Her death triggered nationwide demonstrations that lasted for months.
“Women have been on the front line of the protests”, said Iranian activists and observers interviewed by international media. Demonstrations were led largely by young people who demanded not only social freedoms but also broader political reforms.
According to Rudzit, these protests revealed something deeper: a growing crisis of legitimacy within the regime. “If nearly half the population no longer believes in the system” he says, “it becomes only a matter of time before new challenges emerge.”
RESISTANCE BEYOND THE STREETS
The resistance of Iranian women is not limited to protests inside the country. Across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan, some Kurdish women have joined armed battalions preparing to confront the Iranian regime if conflict spreads.
These fighters are part of Kurdish movements that have long opposed Tehran’s authority in minority regions. Many say their motivation comes from witnessing the repression faced by women in Iran. Their presence illustrates how gender struggles in Iran are increasingly intertwined with broader regional tensions and conflicts.
However, not everyone believes that external pressure or military confrontation will improve the lives of Iranian women.
THE LIMITS OF INTERNATIONAL NARRATIVES
Some analysts argue that Western political discourse about “saving Iranian women” risks oversimplifying a complex reality. According to journalists and commentators interviewed in international reports, framing women’s rights as a justification for geopolitical confrontation may actually worsen the situation on the ground.
Critics warn that international intervention narratives can transform women’s struggles into tools of foreign policy, potentially fueling further instability or conflict rather than empowering local movements.
This perspective highlights a key point: the fight for women’s rights in Iran has largely been driven by Iranian women themselves.
WHO REALLY KEEPS THE REGIME ALIVE?
Even after the death of the Supreme Leader, the future of the regime depends on one institution: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Created after the revolution to protect the new Islamic system, the Revolutionary Guard has become the backbone of Iran’s political and security apparatus. Its members are deeply committed to the ideological principles of the state.
“Eliminating a leader does not automatically dismantle the system,” Rudzit says. “The regime is sustained by an ideology and institutions that extend far beyond a single individual.” This means that real change in Iran would depend not only on political leadership but also on whether the security forces continue to support the existing system.
History offers a powerful precedent. In 1979, the monarchy collapsed only after parts of the military refused to continue repressing protesters. A similar shift today could transform the political landscape, but there are no signs that such a break is imminent.
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND SOCIAL PRESSURE
Another factor shaping Iran’s future is the economic situation. Sanctions, political isolation, and recent conflicts have severely strained the economy. Recent protests have even included merchants and traditional social groups that historically supported the regime, an unusual development that suggests broader dissatisfaction.
For younger generations facing unemployment and limited prospects, frustration continues to grow. “Young people who see no future are more likely to protest,” Rudzit explains. “That is true in Iran, but it is also true everywhere in the world.” If economic conditions deteriorate further, the pressure on the political system could intensify.
AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE WITH STRONG RESILIENCE
Despite decades of restrictions, Iranian women have built a reputation for resilience. They continue to organize, protest, study, and create spaces of resistance both publicly and privately. From universities to underground cultural scenes in cities like Tehran, many young people continue to challenge the social limitations imposed by the state. Small acts such as removing a hijab, attending forbidden gatherings, or speaking out online have become powerful symbols of defiance.
For many observers, these everyday forms of resistance may ultimately shape Iran’s future more than changes in political leadership. While the death of the Supreme Leader may represent a symbolic moment in the country’s history, it does not automatically signal the end of the political system that has governed Iran for decades. The coming years will likely depend on a combination of factors, including economic conditions, generational change, internal political dynamics, and the role of security forces.
For Iranian women, the path forward remains uncertain. Yet their presence at the forefront of protests, activism, and social transformation suggests that they will continue to play a decisive role in shaping the country’s future. As Iran navigates a new chapter after Khamenei, one thing remains clear: the story of Iranian women is not only about repression, but also about persistence, resistance, and the ongoing struggle to redefine their place in society.
_________________________________
The article above was edited by Mariana De Oliver.
Liked this type of content? Check Her Campus Cásper Líbero home page for more!