Iran Protests: What Comes Next?

Shopkeepers in Tehran woke up on the 28th of December to find that they could no longer conduct business with their customers. Overnight, the value of the rial, Iran’s official currency, had dropped to 1.48 million against the US dollar, eradicating the purchasing power of Iranians and forcing those working in the bazaar to take to the streets.

These protests quickly spread to all 31 provinces in Iran, and their focus shifted from outrage at the country’s economic climate to political upheaval. Governmental corruption and mismanagement were the root cause of the market crash, along with UN sanctions against Iran’s nuclear programme. Sanctions enforced against Iran hurt ordinary civilians, contrary to Russia, as many hold their money in foreign banks due to the volatile nature of the rial. 

In response to these mass protests, the Iranian regime sent out its domestic militia, who, under the blanket of a full internet blackout, have enforced a campaign of extreme violence and killings. Suppression of this form is not unusual in Iran. During widespread protests in 2019, 1500 civilians were killed, and in 2022, there was an extensive effort to blind protesters by shooting rubber bullets at their eyes. 

Suppression and violence have become the regime’s core strategy in retaining power. These methods have shown not to be viable in the long term and signify that it is only a matter of time until the Khamenei regime collapses.

Will the regime fall? 

Since the Khomeini regime came to power after the 1979 revolution, there have been numerous protests, none of which have resulted in the overthrow of the Ayatollah. However, today we see significant differences in the protests and their chants. They echo those heard during the previous revolution, calling for members of the security forces to join them in their demonstrations. This style of cry is new and signals a change in the mindset of the protestors. However, there have been no significant defections, and instead, the army has pledged to stand by the republic. 

Reza Pahlavi, the Crown Prince of Iran, has been seen on social media rallying protesters from exile in Washington. The largest protests have been at the times and places he suggested, with demonstrators calling for him to return to Iran and be placed in power. The existence of an opposition leader who unites protesters is another factor which has not been seen since the 1979 revolution, and hints that these protests could be different. 

The success of the 1979 revolution was not solely due to mass protests and unrest within the country, however. It was due to a combination of the clergymen and elites’ inability to effectively suppress the conflict and the ideas behind it, and the option of a popular, strong opposition. Even though the protests we see today are greater and more widespread, they would not lead to a revolution, only greater suppression expressed as violence and silencing in the Islamic Republic.

International intervention, however, could interfere with these systems by targeting elite members of the government and security forces. This is needed due to Iran’s comprehensive security forces, which make up nearly 1 million people. This could come in the form of US involvement, as Trump has warned Iran of an intervention if they do not stop the mass killing of civilians.

The lack of a revolution does not mean that the state is stable; in fact, instability is reaching its peak, due to the US-Israeli strikes and the civil unrest. This points to an unpredictable future.

What would US intervention mean for the country?

Trump’s statements heavily suggest he is contemplating involvement; however, from his recent actions it is obvious that he is not one for long term strategies, and his interest in one issue is rarely long-lasting. Trump’s interest in the region is mainly due to Iran’s nuclear programme. Strikes carried out against Iran in 2025 targeted nuclear enrichment facilities to attempt to eradicate the programme. One option is for Trump to put Pahlavi in power, under the condition of eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme. This could be in a Venezuelan-style intervention where Trump solely removes the head of state, whilst keeping the remaining government officials in power. Yet this is highly unlikely as Trump has stated he does not believe Pahlavi should be in a position of power either. 

If Trump wished to strike against Iran, he has a few options. The Navy has three warships in the Middle East, one being the Roosevelt, which on Wednesday the 14th of January, was said to be moving into the Red Sea. The Navy also has at least one missile-firing submarine in the region, Pentagon officials said. Possible strike options presented to Trump by the Pentagon include going beyond the strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme and targeting ballistic missile sites. Officials have said, however, that the more likely option is to conduct a cyberstrike, or a strike against Iran’s militia, who are currently killing civilians under an internet blackout. This is the most likely option as Trump has been open about his condemnation of these actions, stating he was cancelling meetings with Iranian officials “until the senseless killing” had stopped.

The future of Iran is full of uncertainty, unrest, and instability. However, I believe that this is not the end of the Khamenei regime. It has been a week since Trump showed his interest in the conflict, and it seems that, for now, he has moved his focus on to Greenland and the World Economic Forum in Davos.

• Iran
• politics
• protest