The Oscars: Who Will Win?

An important thing to realize when watching the Academy Awards is thatthe awards aren’t generally given on merit: it’s all politics. These politics revolve around whether it’s “time” someone received one, what their public image is, or maybe even how popular they are. Academy Awards committeedoes this to make sure it can retain its “finality” appearance: that the winner they choose will be indisputably the best.
 
With that in mind, I’m going to try and game the system, and figure out who’s going to win this year. It’s been an interesting crop of films, some awesome, some not so awesome, so we’ll see. Disclaimer: I wouldn’t bet money on this.
 
            Actor in a Leading Role:
            Javier Bardem in Biutiful
            Jeff Bridges in True Grit
            Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
            Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
            James Franco in 127 Hours
 
            SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth
            WILL WIN: Colin Firth
            DARKHORSE: James Franco
           
Colin Firth lost the Best Actor award last year to competitor Jeff Bridges: it would be an unpopular move to have it happen again. Franco may win if the voting body has any sense of irony (seeing as he’s hosting, and simply awesome), or just feels super daring.
 
            Actor in a Supporting Role:
            Christian Bale in The Fighter
            John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
            Jeremy Renner in The Town
            Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
            Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech
 
            SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale
            WILL WIN: Geoffrey Rush
            DARKHORSE: John Hawkes
 
Christian Bale should win this one. He’s been putting in Oscar-worthy work in every film he’s been in since 1992. Geoffrey Rush, however, hasn’t won an Academy Award since 1996, and he’s never won one for Best Supporting Actor. He’s an actor who goes under the category of “it’s his time.” Plus, Bale has been acting a bit odd lately. Hawkes might win because Winter’s Bone was critically acclaimed, but probably won’t win anything else, and the Academy loves to give awards to underrated movies just to show who is boss.
 
            Actress in a Leading Role:
            Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
            Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
            Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
            Natalie Portman in Black Swan
            Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
           
            SHOULD WIN: Annette Bening
            WILL WIN: Natalie Portman
            DARKHORSE: Michelle Williams
           
Annette Bening has been doing excellent work throughout her career, and The Kids Are All Right was one of her best. Unfortunately, it seems that the film industry has a giant thing for Natalie Portman lately, possibly for political reasons, probably just because she has that good girl image, but she isn’t going to win this one on talent. Michelle Williams has been nominated for an award before, and certainly deserves it this time, but it seems she’s up against some pretty strong competition.
 
            Actress in a Supporting Role:
            Amy Adams in The Fighter
            Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
            Melissa Leo in The Fighter
            Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
            Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
 
            SHOULD WIN: Helena Bonham Carter
            WILL WIN: Melissa Leo
            DARKHORSE: Hailee Steinfeld
 
Helena Bonham Carter was excellent in The King’s Speech, and by far the best actress in this category. Melissa Leo, however, plays a misunderstood mother, and the Academy just loves those kinds of roles. They might give it to Hailee Steinfeld because sometimes the Academy likes tripping up people by giving awards to younger actors.
 
            Animated Feature Film:
            How To Train Your Dragon
            The Illusionist
            Toy Story 3
 
            SHOULD WIN: The Illusionist
            WILL WIN: How To Train Your Dragon
            DARKHORSE: Toy Story 3
 
The Illusionist was a charming film that utilized the best qualities of its animation. How To Train Your Dragon, for some reason, was a critical hit with superb animation, and most likely will win the award. Toy Story 3 might win just because everyone cried at the end, but I’d be surprised if they gave the award to a sequel.
 
            Directing:
            Black Swan Darren Aronofsky
            The Fighter David O. Russell
            The King’s Speech Tom Hooper
            The Social Network David Fincher
            True Grit Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
 
            SHOULD WIN: Tom Hooper
            WILL WIN: David Fincher
            DARKHORSE: Darren Aronofsky
 
The King’s Speech is probably the best movie of the year, and certainly had amazing direction. The Social Network, however, is critically acclaimed, and a lot of that acclaim goes to behind-the-scenes work. Plus, I doubt that The Social Network will win any other big awards this year, and they probably feel that they have to give it something. Darren Aronofsky might win just because everyone’s been all over Black Swan lately, no matter how awful a movie it was. I’ll give him credit: he tried.
 
            Best Picture:
            Black Swan
            The Fighter
            Inception
            The Kids Are All Right
            The King’s Speech
            127 Hours
            The Social Network
            Toy Story 3
            True Grit
            Winter’s Bone
 
            SHOULD WIN: The King’s Speech
            WILL WIN: The King’s Speech
            DARKHORSE: The Social Network
 
If there’s any justice in the world, The King’s Speech will win. This is one of the best put-together films in years, and it deserves to win every category it’s nominated in. Unfortunately, they can’t just give all the awards to The King’s Speech because that would be completely apolitical, so they might just give it Best Actor and Best Picture and be done with it, which would be a shame, but definitely better than nothing. The Social Network might win because people have this idea that it’s somehow relevant to our lives today, never mind everything else that’s going on in the world and the fact that Harvard culture is a very small subset of the Boston area.
 
I do have to say, though, that the films this year were particularly high quality, and there are a number of movies on the list that I wouldn’t mind winning. I am a little disappointed that they’re keeping this stupid ten films thing, but what can you do?
 
I certainly have opinions on pretty much every category; so contact me if you really want to know what I think. But mostly I think that what should win won’t, because that’s just how the Academy Awards game works. All I know is that if they give anything to Black Swan, I’ll be upset, but not surprised. The most deserving films and actors don’t always win; and if there’s anything you should take out of watching the Academy Awards this year, it’s just that. It’s not only a popularity contest: it’s politics.
 
Anyway, as I said before, I wouldn’t bet on these predictions but I’d be mildly surprised if they were all wrong. We’ll just have to watch the 83^rd Academy Awards on February 27^th at 8 PM on ABC.