It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Happy Oscars season! Normally, award shows mean very little to me. I find them to be uninteresting for the most part, unless, they’re the Oscars. And that is because I believe that Hollywood and all of its events should be catered to me specifically. I may not always agree with the Oscars, I may not always have watched every movie (though I sure try to), and I may not be very good at predicting them— I’m in about 6,000th place of Vulture Movie Fantasy League— but damn it, I love them.
Yesterday I was getting dinner with my roommate and she asked me what I thought was going to happen, and I said “Oppenheimer is probably gonna sweep” is that true? Maybe. Do I have any evidence to back this up? No, just a general vibe and a slight understanding of how the academy works. So, armed with my can-do spirit and my inkling of knowledge, I will be answering the pressing questions on everyones mind: “Tanna, who do you think will win in the Oscars this year?” I’ll also tell you what I want to happen, as a treat.
Actor in a Leading Role
I feel the most confident in my guess for this category. That shouldn’t mean much to anyone, but then again, maybe it should.
Prediction: Probably Cillian Murphy for his titular role as Oppenheimer. I don’t have a proper explanation other than the fact that it would feel wrong if he didn’t win. I just don’t think we live in a reality that Murphy doesn’t win.
Dream: Picture this: It’s Oscars Sunday. Actor in a Leading Role is being announced towards the end of the show (not in the first five seconds the way we’ve been doing things the last few years). **Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers wins. The world pauses, everything is okay for a second.
Actor in a Supporting Role
This is the category that caused an uproar upon announcement, and honestly, I don’t care that Gosling got nominated while Robbie didn’t. Barbie got other nominations, and they were up for different categories. Who cares.
Prediction: I have a feeling that its gonna be Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer OR its gonna be Robert De Niro. My reasoning for these is simple; I don’t have any. I think that they were just both in the more Oscar worthy roles and it will come down to the two of them.
Dream: De Niro! I want Killers of the Flower Moon to get the treatment that I think Oppenheimer is going to get. His role as Hale was so disgusting and delightfully evil, it might even be one of my favorite performances of him. Here’s to hoping my hopes with prevail.
Actress in a Leading Role
This category is really hard for me to guess because what I think will happen and what I want to happen are lining up, which normally means I am severely incorrect. However, I am daring to dream. This is going to be my year.
Prediction: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) is going to win.
Dream: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) is going to win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
As I continue to do research (remind myself of who is nominated for what) and receive prophetic visions (go with my gut feeling), I am realizing that I really might not understand how the Oscars work. Does the academy take popularity into consideration? Is it personal for them? I don’t actually care. I’m gonna keep making baseless conjectures!
Prediction: I know in my heart that this is the year of Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Her portrayal of a grieving mother was hands down the best part of The Holdovers. It has to be her, I know it does! (I’m sorry to anyone who is dying for America Ferrera to win for Barbie.)
Dream: If my previous enthusiasm wasn’t clarifying, I want Da’Vine to win. Desperately. The first time I saw The Holdovers her victory went on my vision board. I feel so passionate about this one.
Directing
My friend told me this category is like “Best Picture for people who actually care” and I don’t know what to make of that. Anyways.
Prediction: In a shocking turn of events, I think that Christopher Nolan is gonna win for Oppenheimer. To be clear, I really enjoyed this film. It was by no means my favorite of the year, but I did enjoy it. I just wish that my prophecies wouldn’t be coming true.
Dream: In an even more shocking turn of events, I want Martin Scorsese to win for Killers of the Flower Moon. In a perfect world my dream would come true. Instead I am burdened with the year of Oppenheimer
Writing (Original Screenplay)
This is another terrifying case of believing and wanting the same film to win. Though I am a lot less confident in this guess than I am in Da’Vine. (You’ll never guess what it is.)
Prediction: The Holdovers! I do think that there’s room for The Anatomy of a Fall to swoop in for this one. I wouldn’t be shocked out of my mind if that was to happen. Anatomy was truly a fantastic film as well.
Dream: If The Holdovers wins, I will personally bake a batch of chocolate chip cookies for every member of the Academy. (If anyone from the Academy is reading this, and it could be counted as bribery, and therefor ruins the chances of The Holdovers winning, then I’m joking. Unless you are susceptible to bribes, then I’m sure we can come to an agreement of some type.)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
You all know what I think is going to happen here. Nobody will be shocked when they read my prediction. I haven’t discussed any of these other nominees though, so maybe my dream will be shocking.
Prediction: Oppenheimer, of course. I do have a bit more reasoning for this one, but that’s going to be explored in the Best Picture category. Just know that I actually have some slight evidence this time.
Dream: I don’t actually feel super passionate about any of these films winning. I’d say Barbie but that’s more so people don’t have an excuse to complain about it being snubbed again. I also did really enjoy the film, so I guess thats my answer. Otherwise I’d say American Fiction. I don’t have super strong feelings about it, but I did enjoy it. (I was and am anti-Poor Things for anyone curious)
Animated Feature Film
On the good side, my favorite of the year is in this category. On the bad side, my third favorite of the year is in this category. I am in a conundrum.
Prediction: I believe that Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse is going to win. This will be huge for me and my best friends, as we went and saw it in theaters three times this summer.
Dream: Those who have read my “Top Ten Films of 2022” know that Spiderverse was my favorite of the year; however, I hesitate to say it is my dream for it to win. I think it would be very meaningful if The Boy and the Heron (my third favorite) won. I will just be slightly less excited if Spiderverse does win.
Best Picture
At this point I feel like I’m becoming redundant. But for those who need the refresher on where my loyalties lie, here’s my thoughts on Best Picture.
Prediction: Of course I think that Oppenheimer is going to win. To circle back to Adapted Screenplay and prove I have some reason behind my predictions; four out of five of the last Best Picture winners have won in a Screenplay category. Because I wholeheartedly believe Oppenheimer is going to win Best Picture, I also believe it will win Adapted Screenplay.
Dream: The only category where The Holdovers and Killers of the Flower Moon are facing off for my attention. I do want Killers of the Flower Moon to win more though. I love both of these films so so much, but I think that it is just more important that this film is properly honored.
Obviously, this is not a comprehensive list of every category. At this point in time, I have only seen one of the “International Feature Film” nominees, so I don’t feel confident forming any opinions on the category. I also just don’t feel like anyone cares who I think is gonna win the “Sound” category of the 2024 Oscars. If you do, feel free to contact me and we can discuss.
I hope at least one of these predictions is right, otherwise I am going to be really embarrassed and I’m never gonna watch a movie again. My future hangs in the balance, academy, just keep that in mind.