As a certified film bro, the Academy Awards are essentially my Super Bowl every year. After an arguably abysmal round of nominees in 2022, this year’s lineup predicts a far more exciting — and far more contentious — race. From the groundbreaking Everything Everywhere All at Once to Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical The Fabelmans and Baz Luhrmann’s long-awaited Elvis, this year’s nominee pool is refreshing, exciting, and unprecedented. Here are my personal predictions and honest opinions on this year’s nominees and potential winners.
- Best Picture
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Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick, The Banshees of Inisherin, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking
WHO WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Daniels’ experimental take on fraught familial relationships and crises of identity was an instant hit when it first hit theaters, and it garnered particular praise for its complex storytelling, martial arts-inspired action scenes, and Michelle Yeoh’s emotional and multifaceted (literally) performance. It is arguably the most inspired and original contender for Best Picture, and it will almost certainly take the cake.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
If I were to say EEAAO is overrated, I would be lying. Though I was initially taken aback by the bizarre storyline and visual effects, I found myself reaching for the tissues by the film’s emotionally climactic close. Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu deliver remarkable, believable, and authentic performances that perfectly communicate the complexities and complications that arise at the intersection of family and cultural identity. It’s a sure winner, and it deserves to be.
- Best Actor
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Nominees: Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; and Bill Nighy, Living
WHO WILL WIN: Austin Butler, Elvis
I say this mostly because biopics are historically Oscar bait, at least in the Best Actor category (looking at you, Rami Malek and Daniel Day-Lewis), but also because I think critics were pleasantly surprised by Butler’s performance and commitment to a deeply realistic portrayal of the legendary musician. If Butler’s near-identical vocal performances in the film aren’t proof enough, his continuation of the Elvis accent months later is, and I’m almost certain the months of internet ridicule will be worth it for Butler on March 12.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
While I truly enjoyed Butler’s performance, it’s high time we give Brendan Fraser props for perhaps one of the greatest comebacks in Hollywood history. Not only is Fraser’s performance in The Whale moving and raw, but it is also a refreshing turn from his usual roles as action heroes in films such as The Mummy and proof of his versatility and longevity as an actor who has not been taken seriously but absolutely deserves to be.
- Best Actress
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Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tár; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; and Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Much like Fraser, props are long overdue for Michelle Yeoh. She both literally and figuratively expands on her legacy as a martial arts star in EEAAO, switching between a semi-autobiographical martial arts celebrity persona and the conflicted and overextended character of Evelyn Wang. She traverses the entire spectrum of human emotion in a matter of two hours, and she will win this much-deserved award.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
I have a feeling that my opinion on Yeoh’s performance is pretty evident above, but in case it bears repeating: Michelle Yeoh will and should win Best Actress. And if she doesn’t, I will riot, probably.
- best supporting actor
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Nominees: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Bryan Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; and Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
As another Hollywood comeback kid, Ke Huy Quan’s turn as loving and timid husband and father Waymond Wang in EEAAO solidified his reputation as a serious and polished actor. Waymond is in a way the heart of EEAAO, choosing to love and support his wife and daughter in spite of their estrangement and consistently (though sometimes unsuccessfully) attempting to assuage the slew of issues that confront the Wang family throughout the film. Though Hollywood seems typically averse to such heartfelt and emotionally vulnerable performances, Ke Huy Quan at once proves their longevity while proving his own.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
As much as I adore Ke Huy Quan’s performance, it was Barry Keoghan’s performance as the abused and ostracized Dominic Kearney in The Banshees of Inisherin that struck me even days after first watching the film. Keoghan, who usually plays psychotic, sadistic, or otherwise villainous characters, plays a young man whose unawareness of social norms, perpetual loneliness, and simplistic view of human nature both distinguish him from others on the isolated island and seal his fate. Dominic is at once obnoxious, rude, and conniving while being the film’s arguably most kindhearted and honest character behind Colin Farrell’s Padraig. Keoghan’s performance was impactful, nuanced, and painfully sincere, and he has truly earned this award.
- best supporting actress
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Nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; and Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WHO WILL WIN: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
This year seems to be the year that every underrated actor finally receives their overdue recognition, and Angela Bassett is no exception. Known for her skilled portrayals of strong-willed women in emotional turmoil, Bassett’s role as the grieving Queen Ramonda in Wakanda Forever is one in a long line of award-worthy performances. A win for Bassett would not only be her first but the first Best Acting Oscar for Marvel, and it possesses the ability to permanently alter Marvel’s public perception. Based on audience reactions and Bassett’s recent Golden Globes win, I think she’s got this one in the bag.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
As much as I love Angela Bassett, I truly believe Stephanie Hsu deserves this award. Her performance as the dual Jobu Topaki/Joy Wang is free of the cliches that typically plague portrayals of angsty millennial/Gen Z characters and full of the emotional conflict that often arises from family disputes. Joy is stubborn, self-assured, independent, and yet not-so-subtly heartbroken by her mother’s alienation of her. Hsu manages to outshine the seasoned Jamie Lee Curtis (love u tho), and she deserves praise on praise for this phenomenal, raw performance.
- best director
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Nominees: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Todd Field, Tár; and Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
WHO WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
When it comes to directing and storytelling, it’s hard to outdo Steven Spielberg. Spielberg is a filmmaker whose films have truly stood the test of time, and he possesses a unique ability to communicate profound messages through his films without explicitly telling his audience what, or how, to think. The semi-autobiographical The Fabelmans gives critical insight into the origins of Spielberg’s fervent zeal for filmmaking and genuine approach to storytelling while making a spectacle out of ordinary family life. Spielberg concurrently celebrates his Jewish heritage, parses through the dissolution of his parents’ marriage, and chronicles his own relationship with film in a work that deserves the title of “modern classic.” Both out of reputation and merit, he will almost certainly win this award.
WHO SHOULD WIN: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sorry not sorry, I am very partial to Steven Spielberg. In particular, the final scene wherein the young Sammy Fabelman meets his hero John Ford (here comically portrayed by David Lynch) is so beautifully directed and perfectly paced that it has managed to evoke tears from me each time I watch it — despite it not being a particularly sad scene. He’s legendary for a reason.
Though I’m pretty confident in my predictions, only time will tell if the Academy agrees. I highly encourage you to watch each of these films and give them the time and consideration they deserve! Happy watching.