Eurovision time is drawing near and it is time to discuss Eurovision Song Contest and especially semi-final 1, where Saara Aalto is trying to fight her way to the final on the 12th of May. And a fight it will most likely be, since semi-final 1 seems to be (by the grace of allocation draw) a real battle ground. What lies there on the way of success? Who are the opponents we should be the most afraid of? Let us find out.
19 songs are competing in semi-final 1 on Tuesday the 8th of May, and only 10 performers will be rewarded with a ticket to the final. At the moment the official betting coefficients at EurovisionWorld.com are not in favor of Finland, currently lying only 11th on the list. The betting does not tell everything though – it is not like last year’s winner Salvador Sobral was the punter’s favorite long before the final night. Nevertheless, the list is a fair warning that the road to final is not clear.
Heads-up: this article will include shameless predictions.
1. Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan is once again depending on Swedish and Greek songwriters. After a bit more experimental year, they are back with a typical Azeri entry. X My Heart is a song with a positive vibe and very (if you don’t mind) Eurovision-like melody and lyrics. Its strongest asset, nevertheless, is the fact that it comes from Azerbaijan. This Caucasian country has never missed the final and is unlikely to do it this time either.
2. Iceland
Iceland is usually known for sending something cool and different, but this year’s choice is a very eurovisionesque ballad. Ari Ólafsson is only 19 yet an experienced musical performer, and the theatrical sound can be heard in his voice. Sadly this ballad sounds very outdated and it is difficult to see Iceland passing through to the final this year.
3. Albania
Singing in his native Albanian, Eugent Bushpepa has written his entry himself. With good vocals and a hint of rock vibe, this song is a nice spice for the contest. Unfortunately, its chances to compete with the favorites are growing thin, as it is likely to be forgotten among the flashier entries.
4. Belgium
Belgium has been on a roll for the past couple of years, and sometimes that roll is exactly what seems to push countries forward. Sennek’s song is a quality entry and odds are on its side – but will this be enough? The atmosphere in A Matter of Time is a bit gloomy and similar to the Belgian entry in 2017, City Lights, which did very well and placed 4th in the contest. A lot will depend on whether Belgium manages to create the right mood on the stage.
5. Czechia
It is likely that this light-hearted and catchy piece will provide Czechia (or Czech Republic, if you insist) its best ranking in the competition ever. Despite featuring some naughty gibberish, it would take a very bad performance for Lie to Me to fail. The brass and the swing are promising elements when applied correctly (and might even make up for nonsensical lyrics).
6. Lithuania
Ieva Zasimauskaitė: When We’re Old
Lithuania is one of the may or may not -countries, but her habits include making it to the finals when you least expect her to. When we’re Old is a beautiful and slow song, celebrating simplicity. Ieva Zasimauskaitė is not a clear qualifier, but I would not count it out either.
7. Israel
The fan favorite this year, Israel will definitely qualify to the finals. With a positive vibe and yet an important feminist message, this song brings something new to the Eurovision stage: Chicken rap. It’s fresh, modern and feminist, and most importantly, Netta seems to have all the charisma one needs to carry this song to the final. A possible winner.
8. Belarus
The bookmakers do not seem to believe in young Alekseev, but there is no doubt that his song is catchy and among the ones that are easy to remember from the first listening. Although I would not mind hearing the song in the final, it is not very likely in the moment – especially since Alekseev has had some problems with vocals and most of Belarus’ close neighbors vote in the semi-final 2.
9. Estonia
Estonia’s pop-opera is an uncertain bet. It seems to be among the anticipated favorites, but just as these kind of performances have their fans, they also have their haters. La Forza is not in the same level as Il Volo’s Grande Amore a couple years back, and pop-opera certainly is not anything new in Eurovision. With a flawless performance Nechayeva’s voice could carry the song to the finals, but the rest is left open. La Forza would likely depend on tele-voters.
10. Bulgaria
Bulgaria is another country which is riding on its previous success. While also being one of the favorites (currently third on the bookmakers list), it is a bit difficult to see this one as a possible winner. EQUINOX is interestingly composed of five artists (two of which are actually American) who have never before performed music together. Being a quality entry with experienced artists, it is still likely to qualify.
11. F. Y. R. Macedonia
Luckily for F.Y.R Macedonia, some of their closest neighbors (like Bulgaria) are voting in this semi-final. Unfortunately, it may not be enough this time. Eye Cue has an interesting song that may require several hearings with its changing rhythms and styles. The competition may prove to be too hard for this little country that has been struggling to get to the final.
12. Croatia
The Croatian entry has some unexpected soul vibes and pompous style, but is the song catchy and memorable enough to reach a place in the finals? The bookmakers say no, and sadly that may be the case for Franka in this though race.
13. Austria
With an international team (which has produced many other Eurovision songs this year too, and yes, features several Swedes) behind the song, Cesàr Sampson delivers a smooth and enjoyable performance that truly deserves a place in the final. International juries will probably like this song and will most likely hand it the golden ticket. I would be very surprised if they don’t.
14. Greece
Another fan favorite that seems to appeal especially towards Greece’s cultural neighbors. Sung entirely in Greek, this one is a nice surprise that will no doubt guarantee a place in the final for Greece. The country has missed the final only once and made it through with songs that stand out less than Oniro Mou, so one slot is almost definitely reserved for Greece.
15. Finland
Monsters will probably stand out, being placed between two very different entries, but I still can’t help wondering if the semi-final allocation draws were fashioned so that Finland would be thrown in between the toughest competition possible. Hopefully juries will be delighted with Aalto’s high notes and British fans will be generous with their votes…
16. Armenia
The Bookmakers think that Sevak Khanagyan has what it takes to reach the finals, but there is undoubtedly some work to do with the live performance. Even though Armenia usually qualifies, it is not as clear this time. Since several countries are singing in their own language and probably go with a reduced performance (as following in the footsteps of Salvador Sobral), it might take something extra for Armenia to stand out this year. We will see if the strong diaspora voting will suffice.
17. Switzerland
I would love to hand out a ticket to Switzerland as she has been struggling lately even while sending good songs, but the very few left out tickets will likely go to countries with more friendly-neighbor voting. ZiBBZ is a band composed of two siblings with some indie and rock attitude, and the lyrics deal with bullying. Is the message clear enough to touch the hearts of the audience? It is a bit doubtful.
18. Ireland
One of the author’s secret favorites, this honest little song might have some hard time in the competition, as Ireland too has not been very successful in the contest lately. It isn’t very clear whether people would remember to vote for this piece, but sometimes an honest and reduced performance gets through. Unfortunately, like mentioned before, this year has a lot of those.
19. Cyprus
Even without the help of Greece and Albania (where Eleni Foureira is originally from), Cyprus would probably make it to the finals. Fuego is a fashionable entry that has been clearly constructed for the Eurovision stage. It will be a real big surprise if this party favorite doesn’t make it to the final.
A Quick revision for my expected qualifiers:
Most certainly will: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Greece, Israel
Might or might not: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Lithuania
Most likely won’t: Croatia, Iceland, Ireland, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Switzerland
It has to be stressed how much the final live show and staging settles. Any song that was not initially ‘supposed’ to make it can succeed and almost any song can fail.
Sources:
eurovision.tv
eurovisionworld.com