On April 13, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Aderson met to discuss national security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The meeting surrounded the potential of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO formed in 1949 in response to the Soviet Union’s expansion in Europe after the end of World War II.
Finland and Sweden’s desire to join NATO focuses on Article Five and it states, “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” Finnish Prime Minister Marin asserts, “We have to be prepared for all kinds of actions from Russia… There is no other way to have security guarantees than under NATO’s deterrence and common defense as guaranteed by NATO’s Article Five.“
Since World War I, Sweden has remained neutral on Russia’s relationship with the West. The country has lived in peace for over 200 years and advocated for diplomacy and disarmament during the Cold War. To join, a defensive alliance does not go hand-in-hand with these principles. Swedish Peace and Arbitration Society president Agness Hellstrom opposes a NATO membership for Sweden. She states, “It’s a reflex that you choose because it’s the easiest way. But at the same time, we have to use this really wide pallet of choices right now.”
Sweden faces Russian threats through the Baltic Sea—their island of Gotland could be a first target. The polls indicate that around 42 percent of Swedish people favor joining NATO.
Finland has a shorter history of non-alignment and neutrality by being under Russian rule during the 19th century and invaded under Joseph Stalin during World War II. A 1948 agreement between the USSR and Finland started their neutrality, promising not to join any western alliance. Their security is shakier than Sweden’s since they share an 832-mile border with Russia. The polls indicate more support from the Finnish people with 62 percent favoring a NATO membership.
For years, Kremlin has warned against any move toward a closer relationship with the West. Spokesperson Dmitry Leskov highlights “military and political consequences” while foreign ministry Maria Zakharova indicates Russia would be forced to “rebalance the situation.”
With the possibility of joining NATO, Russia has increased its military presence near the border with Finland, likely as an intimidation tactic. As a precaution, NATO has launched a naval patrol over the Baltic Sea.
Finland and Sweden as still weighing the consequences of joining NATO. Swedish Prime Minister Aderson states, “We have to analyze the situation to see what is best for Sweden’s security… you shouldn’t rush into that, you should make it very seriously.”
If membership is granted successfully, it is likely to take anywhere from six months to a year. The decision will start at the national level through parliamentary voting. Then NATO will extend an invitation to apply, starting the accession process. Finland and Sweden must demonstrate, “Political, democratic, civilian control over the security institutions and the armed forces (under Article 10).” That is why countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, who have long aspired to be a part of NATO, have not been able to do so.
Negotiations take place, an Accession document is drafted and sent to each member’s national legislature. For example, it would require a 2/3 majority vote in the United States Senate and a simple majority in the House to approve the membership.
NATO will likely facilitate the process due to the time-sensitive decision. What will take the longest is the domestic legislative approvals. What aids this process is how Finland and Sweden already meet a lot of the requirements. By already being a part of NATO’s Enhanced Opportunity Partners, they are, to a great degree, already integrated into NATO’s military strategy and operations.
The biggest fear is what Russia will do between the period of application and ratification. Russia can strengthen its military presence on the border and in the Baltic Sea before Finland and Sweden are officially part of NATO. The prime ministers turned to the European Union (EU) for support. Both sent letters to the European Council serving as a reminder of their obligation to aid their defense.
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