It has been seven months since Russia first invaded Ukraine back in February, and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and his recently-made ultimatum for the West has heightened tensions in the discussion and escalation of talks of nuclear conflict. Putin spoke in a rare, televised address on Wednesday, Sept. 21, warning that if necessary, the Kremlin would “certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It is not a bluff.”
Said nuclear warnings were in response to public outrage over the annexation of four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia backed joining Russia in a series of highly controversial referendums. The vote was widely protested by Ukraine, and many have claimed it broke international law due to the fact that residents were intimidated during the five-day period, with many ballots cast at gunpoint. Putin retorted, saying Moscow would defend its territory using all means, including nuclear weapons.
These warnings come at a critical time in the Ukraine-Russia war following a string of victories for Kyiv in the east. Some accredit Putin’s unpredictable measures and threats as a strategic bluff to gain an upper hand. In light of Putin’s threats, there are no public reports that Kremlin has readied its nuclear weapons or missiles.
However, according to U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Face the Nation Putin’s threats are not to be taken lightly. “If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia. The United States will respond decisively,” said Sullivan. “We have communicated directly, privately, at very high levels to the Kremlin, that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia.”
Following the United States’ disparagement of Russia’s threats, the Kremlin has said they had “sporadic” talks with the United States about the prospect of nuclear involvement. Russia’s deputy foreign minister has also appeared to try to alleviate tension on the world stage and has insisted that Russia is not seeking “open confrontation.”
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded in an interview with CNBC’s “Face the Nation.” According to Zelenskyy, there could be some truth to Putin’s claims.
“He wants to scare the whole world. These are the first steps of his nuclear blackmail. I don’t think he’s bluffing,” Zelenskyy said. “He knows that he’s losing the war. On the battlefield, Ukraine has seized the initiative. He cannot explain to his society why, and he is looking for answers to these questions.”
If Putin followed through with his bluff, there is not much concern that Russia would use what is called a “strategic” nuclear weapon, according to CNN. Strategic nuclear weapons have the power to destroy entire cities. Instead, “tactical,” or “battlefield” warheads are much more likely. They are designed for the battlefield, and though their yield is lower, they can be inconceivably deadly. For perspective, the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan that ended World War II equated to about 15 to 21 kilotons. Tactical warheads yield anywhere from 10 to 100 kilotons.
“On many fronts, Putin is under pressure,” Dr. Rod Thornton, a security expert at King’s College London said. “The more desperate Putin becomes, the more he’s pushed on the back foot, the more likely it becomes that a nuclear weapon is used.”
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