After seeing all of the Best Picture Nominees, I figured it was time to make some informed Oscar predictions. Who knows if I will be right, but it sure was fun watching and comparing all of the films!
Best Actor
The nominees are:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Who Will Win: Denzel Washington
Casey Affleck was an early favorite to win for Best Actor, and should still win. However, a resurgence of allegations of misconduct in his personal life could put Oscar voters off from voting for him. Also, Denzel Washington has been gaining steam throughout awards season, winning the SAG Award and his momentum could be hard to stop. Casey Affleck’s performance is certainly the superior one—it is more subdued. He controls himself throughout the film so that when he breaks out, those particular moments have emotional resonance. Denzel Washington starts out at 95 miles per hour and doesn’t stop until the film is over. It is for that reason that Affleck should win over Washington.
Best Actress
The nominees are:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who Should Win: Emma Stone
Who Will Win: Emma Stone
Emma Stone has been taking on more serious roles in the recent years but her turn in La La Land is the perfect combination of her comedic and dramatic chops. Stone is on screen for almost the entire film, but it never feels as if she is phoning in her performance. And her chemistry with Ryan Gosling is incredible. This win will only be the first of many for her.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who Should Win: Lucas Hedges
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Mahershala Ali’s short time on screen in Moonlight, certainly is a powerful performance, but I soon forgot it as the film progressed. Lucas Hedges however maintains his performance throughout Manchester. The way he combined humor and grief with traditional teenage troubles made it impossible to look away. He is certainly a star in the making.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Who Should Win: Viola Davis
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Viola Davis. I feel like I don’t need to say anymore. She is an incredible actress who should have been awarded an Oscar a long time ago. For me she was the saving grace of Fences and should be rewarded for her work.
Best Director
The nominees are:
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Chazelle was able to take an old concept (the Hollywood musical) and make it feel new and original. His ability to incorporate references to classic musicals, while still maintaining his personal style and vision establishes him as one of the best directors or recent years.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Who Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Who Will Win: La La Land
Manchester is an original story that has great depth. It has an incredible amount of dialogue, but never feels bogged down like Fences. Manchester is also grounded in reality, a feat that can be attributed to the relatable dialogue throughout. La La Land doesn’t have the same depth, but if voters are swept in La La mania, they may overlook the superior Manchester.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees are:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Who Should Win: Hidden Figures
Who Will Win: Moonlight
The unique adaptation and format of Moonlight, combined with its emotional story may overpower Hidden Figures. However, in my opinion the superior adaptation was Hidden Figures. Being able to make a film about math entertaining is a great feat in itself. Additionally, being able to incorporate the professional stories of Katherine Johnson and her work for NASA, with the more touching personal elements made for a powerful film.
Best Original Song
The nominees are:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls
“City of Stars” from La La Land
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Who Should Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Who Will Win: “How Far I’ll Go”
Any of the songs from La La Land could win, but having two in the same category could split Oscar voters and give the prize to another song. Given Disney’s history of catchy and award winning songs, “How Far I’ll Go” is a safe bet to win. (Bonus: If it wins Lin Manuel Miranda becomes the youngest EGOT ever!)
Best Picture
The nominees are:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Who Should Win: La La Land
Who Will Win: La La Land
I’ve covered this before, but La La Land is the most complete of all of the nominated films, offering strong technical and performance elements. La La Land is certain to take home lots of awards on Sunday night, and Best Picture will be one of them.