Thumbnail image via Variety.
This Sunday is every cinephile and movie lover’s Super Bowl: Oscars night. This year, the competition is sure to be tough in some categories. While crowd favorite and critical darling La La Land is likely to sweep on Sunday night, a lot of categories are wide open to surprises and snubs. We sat down with Cinémathèque, UPRM’s only association dedicated to film, so they could place their bets on who should win, say who was robbed of a nomination, and who will win the coveted golden statuette.
On our panel: Abraham Vélez, president; Samara Pérez, vice-president; and Fran Zayas, treasurer. Responses have been edited for clarity and length.
1. Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea. Image via The Hollywood Reporter.
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will win:
Fran: This belongs to Casey Affleck. His performance as a broken man who fails to step up to the plate because he’s grief-stricken triumphs especially in his moments of silence, when Affleck’s nuanced acting is really able to shine through. He had a great script to work with. Despite the heavy subject matter, the movie still is funny–the humor supplements the script in a way that it touches your guts.
Samara: Although recently it seems to show that Denzel Washington might be the winner, I think this year the better Affleck will finally be acknowledged and awarded for his tremendous acting skills.
Should win:
Fran: Casey Affleck, no question.
Robbed:
Fran: Joel Edgerton (Loving). He had a good momentum during the festival circuit but then flopped, and it cost him a nomination.
2. Actress in a Leading Role
Natalie Portman as Jackie Kennedy in Jackie. Image via Newsweek.
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will win:
This year, this category is wide open. The Academy notoriously has a soft spot for musicals and biopics, so Emma Stone and Natalie Portman were initially seen as frontrunners. However, Isabelle Huppert has received lots of attention for her performance in Elle, a French film.
Abraham: I think Stone will win simply because the Academy loves stories about struggles with reaching your dreams and it has a soft spot for musicals; not to mention that the film is a love-letter to Los Angeles and the film industry.
Fran: It’s hard to tell. Huppert has received a lot of attention and, while the Academy has a soft spot for musicals and biopics, ultimately I think it’ll favor a biopic–and Portman’s performance overall–so I think she’ll win.
Samara: This year it can truly go in any direction. At first it seemed like Natalie Portman was a sure win, however this season has shown that the Oscar is between Isabelle Huppert and Emma Stone. Although it is difficult for a foreign actor to win in this category, I think that Isabelle Huppert will still be Sunday’s winner. Her performance has much more depth and complexity than Stone’s and should truly be awarded for this.
Should win:
The panel agrees that Natalie Portman should be this year’s winner. “She gave a performance that was much better than Emma Stone’s. She was able to really touch on the pain and anxiety of being a widow, and truly embodied Jackie Kennedy,” Abraham said.
Robbed:
Samara: While there’s nothing the Academy loves more than Meryl Streep, sadly that came at a cost this year. Amy Adams was snubbed for Arrival, a film she lead and carried entirely, while Streep’s fun and unsurprisingly good, yet sort of forgetful, performance in Florence Foster Jenkins got nominated.
Fran: Amy Adams was snubbed entirely, whether for Nocturnal Animals or Arrival, period. Annette Benning also deserved a nomination for 20th Century Women.
Abraham: Hailee Steinfeld for Edge of Seventeen, and Amy Adams for Arrival.
3. Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali in Moonlight.
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will win:
Samara: This is the category for which I am 100 percent confident that I am right: Mahershala Ali will be handed the golden statue this Sunday. His performance as Juan is one of the most profound portrayals witnessed in 2016.
Fran: Ali has won every award this season except for the Golden Globe. He was on screen for only fifteen minutes but it was unforgettable. The dark horse this year is definitely Michael Shannon, but this award is Ali’s to win.
Should win:
Abraham: Ali should win, hands down. You miss him when he’s not on screen.
4. Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis in Fences. Image via Vanity Fair.
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will win:
Third time’s the charm: the panel is certain this is Viola Davis’ to win. Apart for the weak competition this year and the fact that she’s won every major award this year, Samara says Davis will win because “her performance in Fences is powerful, emotional and honest, all great factors that lead me to think that she will go home with the win.”
Should win:
Fran: Viola Davis; it’s her year.
5. Animated Feature Film
A still from Zootopia. Via Film Gamed.
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Will Win:
Samara: A tough category this year, nonetheless, I am sure that Zootopia will go home with the win. I enjoyed its take on segregation and discrimination, all tied together with Shakira’s commercially pop cultured input.
Should win:
Fran: Kubo and the Two Strings–it brought back stop-motion animation and presents very mature themes, but never feels like it could overwhelm a child.
Samara: I believe that Kubo and the Two Strings had better animation effects–stop-motion–than Zootopia.
Abraham: Zootopia should win; for a Disney movie it had an original sense of humor compared to other films like Moana, and I had a better time watching it than Kubo.
6. Directing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win:
Abraham: Damien Chazelle [La La Land] will win. He directed the favorite and did a great job at it; in addition, he had already established himself as a quality visionary after 2014’s Whiplash. Again, La La Land is the favorite, so he’ll easily win Best Director.
Samara: I have no doubt about it, Damien Chazelle will win this award. He’s won all the others (Golden Globe, Directors Guild, etc.) in this category. His risk of creating an original musical truly paid off in the best way possible.
Fran: Chazelle succeeded in bringing back Jacques Demy-style musicals by giving La La Land a modern twist, thus making musicals fresh again. Apart from the film’s overall topic reaching into a Universal core, his technique is spectacular: everything, from the cinematography, editing, color gradients, to the production and costume design. You can tell he had control over every department.
Should Win:
Abraham: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight.
Fran: [Moonlight and La La Land] are such different films. What makes Jenkins’ work stand out is exactly the opposite of what makes Chazelle’s stand out: Jenkins took a play and adapted it into a film, and his adaptation to screen is what makes his directing so exceptional. The film is divided in three parts and, while neither has a tangible climax, the film feels more real and authentic overall.
It’s Boyhood plus 400 Blows plus Frank Ocean’s discography made into a movie.
Abraham: [laughs] The final act is “Pyramids.”
7. Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win:
The panel is clear: this Oscar belongs to La La Land. Abraham thinks that since Director Damien Chazelle has the Best Director award locked tight, he will also win Best Picture. “It’s what almost always happens,” he said.
Fran: It has every element of what the Academy considers a “Best Picture:” it’s a musical, uplifting, a love letter to the industry, and features high-profile leads.
Abraham: Moonlight is a much more complete movie, but the fact is we will still be talking about La La Land ten years from now.
Samara: Hollywood will not pass on the opportunity of handing the award to a film that shows love, appreciation and rendered an homage for classic Hollywood.
Should win:
Samara: Although I loved La La Land, I believe Moonlight is the true winner, when it comes to subjects and storyline; however, Chazelle and his producers are worthy of this win.
Abraham: La La Land is infinitely watchable.
Fran: The way I see it, the Academy has two options: to reaffirm and celebrate their identity and what Hollywood is all about, or it can embrace what will be done over the next few years. Moonlight is the clear option for the latter. It’s what filmmakers will strive to do from now on.
Robbed:
Abraham: Captain Fantastic and Swiss Army Man. Captain Fantastic is a pretty original film, and its script was smartly written. Also, it featured the best acting by children that I have seen in a long time.
Samara: It’s important to mention that Larrain’s masterpiece, Jackie, was snubbed from the Best Picture category. A film that humanized the life of an idol was not recognized in this very important category, which is outrageous.
The Oscars will air on Sunday, February 26, at 9PM on ABC, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel.